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台湾

回旋空间狭窄 · 更新于2026年11月6日

做了什么

永丰银行11月4日表示，11月3日发生的427笔未授权转账，源于外部攻击者渗透了新手机银行系统的供应商。约4176万新台币从419个账户转入同一账户，银行以自有资金向客户赔付。金管会冻结了收款账户，台北地检署已立案侦查。台股加权指数11月3日下跌3.59%，收于43307.54点。外资单日净卖超1073.1亿新台币。

原因

台湾经济倚重AI硬件。第三季度增长14.36%，最大晶圆代工厂占指数权重超过40%。但估值取决于美国云计算企业靠举债支撑的AI支出。北京把施压从空域延伸到东部海域的执法主张和海缆沿线。台湾附近有24条海底电缆经过，其中14条为国际海缆。过去4年每年发生7至8起海缆事件。

必须做什么

台湾必须以海巡力量回应东部海域的执法巡逻，同时避免军事升级。11月28日前，它需要把选举干预证据移交司法，并核查公共采购中的非红色供应链要求。它还须管理对单一需求链的依赖，防止外资撤离冲击金融稳定，并与工研院加快推进台积电的稀土替代。

接下来

首要看点是金管会对永丰银行案的处理，以及是否要求银行对供应商进行安全审查。第二个看点是外资撤离是否持续，台股是否会测试7月29日39384点的低点。东部海域的新巡逻、科考船轨迹，以及11月28日选举前可能出现的海缆事件，都在关注之列。

偏好

武器交付不受政治日程影响持续推进；与美国的关税和技术承诺对等落实；芯片生产不中断。

观察到的行为

在供应链上与美国对齐，并为中国原材料寻找替代。在选举安全上，从统计数字转向证据，突出司法途径。

来源

  1. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — No evidence of customer data leak in unauthorized transactions: SinoPac（2026年11月4日）
  2. Taipei Times — No evidence of customer data leak in unauthorized transactions: SinoPac（2026年11月5日）
  3. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiex suffers 7th steepest single-day point decline on tech sell-off（2026年11月3日）
  4. Taiwan News — Four Chinese research vessels probe Taiwan's undersea cables（2026年11月2日）
  5. Seoul Economic Daily — Chinese Ships Trace Undersea Cables Near Taiwan, Analysts Say（2026年11月4日）
  6. Baird Maritime (Reuters) — China's coast guard tightens grip in waters east of Taiwan
  7. Taipei Times (Reuters) — Minister emphasizes maritime sovereignty
  8. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiwan Q3 GDP growth hits 14.36%, highest in 48 years
  9. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiex to face heavy pressure after TSMC's ADRs plunge nearly 6%
  10. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — AI spending concerns plunge Taiex by over 1,100 points
  11. Taipei Times — Warship activity signals Beijing ambitions: analysts
  12. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — 3 agencies identified for procuring drones said to contain Chinese-made chips
  13. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiwan 'deeply regrets' Pakistan's airspace ban on Taiwanese airlines
  14. Dawn — Pakistan allows Taiwanese airlines to use airspace till March 2027
  15. Aviation A2Z — Taiwan's Biggest Airlines Return to Russian Skies After Pakistan Airspace Shock
  16. 工商時報 (Commercial Times) — 台積CoWoS傳喊漲上看2成
  17. Taipei Times — Taipower fuel costs to increase amid tensions
  18. CNA (中央社) — 工研院擬工業區建稀土廠 拚2030年50%需求自給自足
  19. Taipei Times — Taiwan plans to build rare earths plant
  20. Taipei Times — Military to restructure on tech, firepower: source
  21. Nikkei Asia — US lawmaker to press Trump to expedite Taiwan arms sales
  22. Aju Press — Suspected North Korea-linked hackers target Korean banks, government
  23. Taipei Times — CGA urges Beijing not to use typhoons to assert jurisdiction
  24. Focus Taiwan — 8 Japan Coast Guard vessels shadowed by China near Penghu: Taiwan
  25. Taipei Times (Reuters) — China using militia boats to ramp up war readiness
  26. Focus Taiwan — Champi leaves 1 dead, 616 injured as storm moves away from Taiwan
  27. Taipei Times (Reuters) — TSMC seeks factory-equipment alternatives
  28. Global Banking & Finance Review (Reuters) — Exclusive: TSMC seeks factory-equipment alternatives to thwart China's rare earths grip
  29. Taipei Times — Powerchip expects more price hikes
  30. TrendForce — PSMC Q3 Gross Margin Hits 48% on Memory Price Gains; Eyes 10–20% Mature-Node Price Hikes in 2027
  31. Taipei Times — China escalating election interference efforts, NSB says
  32. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — China's election interference in Taiwan becomes more targeted: NSB
  33. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Death toll in TSMC Kaohsiung construction accident rises to 4
  34. Taipei Times — TSMC slows construction after accident kills four
  35. Taipei Times — Semiconductor industry's electricity use hits record
  36. Taipei Times — Micron signs deal with union, both call off mediation
  37. Taipei Times — China ramps up cyberattacks for potential election meddling: officials
  38. UDN (聯合報) — 國安局：中共網攻7月破億次 疑為九合一介選布局
  39. CNA (中央社) — 中國海警船闖東沙限制水域 海巡統計115年已驅離12次
  40. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — September exports smash previous monthly records, up over 60%
  41. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Micron Taoyuan union announces Oct. 22 solidarity strike
  42. Taiwan News — Taiwan to impose strict controls on AI chip exports to China
  43. Startup Fortune — Taiwan will make it a crime to smuggle AI chips into China
  44. BigGo Finance — Kung Ming-hsin confirms criminal liability for illegal AI chip exports to China
  45. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — TSMC raises 2026 sales growth forecast to 44%, leaves capex unchanged
  46. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiex suffers 6th steepest daily point loss led by tech stocks
  47. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — TSMC evaluating Texas production, cooperation with Terafab
  48. SEC — TSMC Form 6-K, 3Q26 earnings release with guidance
  49. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — MOFA security checks uncover China-developed software
  50. Taipei Times — Four questioned over software used in government
  51. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiex plunges 960 points as tech stocks hit by heavy U.S. losses
  52. Taipei Times — TAIEX plunges as technology stocks hit
  53. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — U.S. launches Section 337 probe involving Taiwan firms（2026年10月11日）
  54. Taipei Times — US launches probe into Taiwan firms（2026年10月12日）
  55. Taipei Times — Super Micro 'fixer' pleads guilty to diverting AI tech（2026年10月12日）
  56. Focus Taiwan — September exports hit record monthly high, extend growth to 35 months
  57. Taipei Times — Exports hit record amid AI demand
  58. Taipei Times — Taiwan spots first China militia boat in east
  59. Focus Taiwan — U.S. urges China to stop pressure on Taiwan after militia vessel spotted
  60. GlobalFoundries — Agreement to establish U.S.-based supply of silicon interposers
  61. The Register — TSMC taps GlobalFoundries to bolster US silicon interposer production in $2B deal
  62. Focus Taiwan — Lai's National Day address to focus on Taiwan's economy, global role
  63. SEC — TSMC Form 6-K, September 2026 revenue report
  64. TrendForce — TSMC Q3 Revenue Beats Forecasts at Record NT$1.49 Trillion
  65. TrendForce — Micron Taiwan's Taoyuan Union Secures Right to Strike With 88.3% Support
  66. BleepingComputer — FBI disrupts Chinese hacking tools used to breach critical infrastructure
  67. The Record — International coalition seizes tools used by cyber firm behind Flax Typhoon
  68. Focus Taiwan — A breakdown of Taiwan's F-16V purchase, as first two jets arrive

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