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TW · Administration · TSMC ecosystem · Asia-Pacific

Taiwan

Narrow room for manoeuvre · updated 6 November 2026

What they did

On 4 November Bank SinoPac said the 427 unauthorised transfers of 3 November came from outside attackers who had penetrated suppliers of its new mobile banking system. About 41.76 million NT dollars was moved from 419 accounts into a single account, and the bank reimbursed customers from its own funds. The Financial Supervisory Commission froze the receiving account and the Taipei prosecutors' office opened an investigation. On 3 November the Taiex fell 3.59% to 43,307.54, with foreign investors selling a net 107.31 billion NT dollars in a single day.

Why

The economy leans on AI hardware: third-quarter growth was 14.36%, and the largest foundry makes up more than 40% of the index. Its valuation, however, rests on debt-financed AI spending by US cloud companies. Beijing is shifting pressure from airspace to a law-enforcement claim off the east coast and to cable routes. Twenty-four submarine cables run nearby, 14 of them international, and there have been 7–8 cable incidents a year over the past four years.

What they must do

It must answer law-enforcement patrols in eastern waters with coast guard capacity while avoiding military escalation. By 28 November it needs to take evidence of election interference to the courts and enforce the non-red supply requirement in public procurement. It must manage dependence on a single demand chain, keep foreign outflows from destabilising the financial system, and speed up TSMC's rare earth substitution with ITRI.

What comes next

First is the Financial Supervisory Commission's ruling on SinoPac, and whether it will require banks to audit supplier security. Second is whether foreign outflows continue and the Taiex tests its 29 July low of 39,384. New patrols in eastern waters, research vessel tracks and a possible cable incident before the 28 November election are being tracked.

Preference

Arms deliveries that proceed regardless of the political calendar, reciprocal delivery on tariff and technology commitments with the United States, and uninterrupted chip production.

Observed behaviour

It is aligning with the United States in supply chains and seeking substitutes for Chinese raw materials; on election security it is moving from counts to evidence and putting the judicial route first.

Sources

  1. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — No evidence of customer data leak in unauthorized transactions: SinoPac (4 November 2026)
  2. Taipei Times — No evidence of customer data leak in unauthorized transactions: SinoPac (5 November 2026)
  3. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiex suffers 7th steepest single-day point decline on tech sell-off (3 November 2026)
  4. Taiwan News — Four Chinese research vessels probe Taiwan's undersea cables (2 November 2026)
  5. Seoul Economic Daily — Chinese Ships Trace Undersea Cables Near Taiwan, Analysts Say (4 November 2026)
  6. Baird Maritime (Reuters) — China's coast guard tightens grip in waters east of Taiwan
  7. Taipei Times (Reuters) — Minister emphasizes maritime sovereignty
  8. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiwan Q3 GDP growth hits 14.36%, highest in 48 years
  9. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiex to face heavy pressure after TSMC's ADRs plunge nearly 6%
  10. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — AI spending concerns plunge Taiex by over 1,100 points
  11. Taipei Times — Warship activity signals Beijing ambitions: analysts
  12. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — 3 agencies identified for procuring drones said to contain Chinese-made chips
  13. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiwan 'deeply regrets' Pakistan's airspace ban on Taiwanese airlines
  14. Dawn — Pakistan allows Taiwanese airlines to use airspace till March 2027
  15. Aviation A2Z — Taiwan's Biggest Airlines Return to Russian Skies After Pakistan Airspace Shock
  16. 工商時報 (Commercial Times) — 台積CoWoS傳喊漲上看2成
  17. Taipei Times — Taipower fuel costs to increase amid tensions
  18. CNA (中央社) — 工研院擬工業區建稀土廠 拚2030年50%需求自給自足
  19. Taipei Times — Taiwan plans to build rare earths plant
  20. Taipei Times — Military to restructure on tech, firepower: source
  21. Nikkei Asia — US lawmaker to press Trump to expedite Taiwan arms sales
  22. Aju Press — Suspected North Korea-linked hackers target Korean banks, government
  23. Taipei Times — CGA urges Beijing not to use typhoons to assert jurisdiction
  24. Focus Taiwan — 8 Japan Coast Guard vessels shadowed by China near Penghu: Taiwan
  25. Taipei Times (Reuters) — China using militia boats to ramp up war readiness
  26. Focus Taiwan — Champi leaves 1 dead, 616 injured as storm moves away from Taiwan
  27. Taipei Times (Reuters) — TSMC seeks factory-equipment alternatives
  28. Global Banking & Finance Review (Reuters) — Exclusive: TSMC seeks factory-equipment alternatives to thwart China's rare earths grip
  29. Taipei Times — Powerchip expects more price hikes
  30. TrendForce — PSMC Q3 Gross Margin Hits 48% on Memory Price Gains; Eyes 10–20% Mature-Node Price Hikes in 2027
  31. Taipei Times — China escalating election interference efforts, NSB says
  32. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — China's election interference in Taiwan becomes more targeted: NSB
  33. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Death toll in TSMC Kaohsiung construction accident rises to 4
  34. Taipei Times — TSMC slows construction after accident kills four
  35. Taipei Times — Semiconductor industry's electricity use hits record
  36. Taipei Times — Micron signs deal with union, both call off mediation
  37. Taipei Times — China ramps up cyberattacks for potential election meddling: officials
  38. UDN (聯合報) — 國安局：中共網攻7月破億次 疑為九合一介選布局
  39. CNA (中央社) — 中國海警船闖東沙限制水域 海巡統計115年已驅離12次
  40. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — September exports smash previous monthly records, up over 60%
  41. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Micron Taoyuan union announces Oct. 22 solidarity strike
  42. Taiwan News — Taiwan to impose strict controls on AI chip exports to China
  43. Startup Fortune — Taiwan will make it a crime to smuggle AI chips into China
  44. BigGo Finance — Kung Ming-hsin confirms criminal liability for illegal AI chip exports to China
  45. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — TSMC raises 2026 sales growth forecast to 44%, leaves capex unchanged
  46. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiex suffers 6th steepest daily point loss led by tech stocks
  47. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — TSMC evaluating Texas production, cooperation with Terafab
  48. SEC — TSMC Form 6-K, 3Q26 earnings release with guidance
  49. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — MOFA security checks uncover China-developed software
  50. Taipei Times — Four questioned over software used in government
  51. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiex plunges 960 points as tech stocks hit by heavy U.S. losses
  52. Taipei Times — TAIEX plunges as technology stocks hit
  53. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — U.S. launches Section 337 probe involving Taiwan firms (11 October 2026)
  54. Taipei Times — US launches probe into Taiwan firms (12 October 2026)
  55. Taipei Times — Super Micro 'fixer' pleads guilty to diverting AI tech (12 October 2026)
  56. Focus Taiwan — September exports hit record monthly high, extend growth to 35 months
  57. Taipei Times — Exports hit record amid AI demand
  58. Taipei Times — Taiwan spots first China militia boat in east
  59. Focus Taiwan — U.S. urges China to stop pressure on Taiwan after militia vessel spotted
  60. GlobalFoundries — Agreement to establish U.S.-based supply of silicon interposers
  61. The Register — TSMC taps GlobalFoundries to bolster US silicon interposer production in $2B deal
  62. Focus Taiwan — Lai's National Day address to focus on Taiwan's economy, global role
  63. SEC — TSMC Form 6-K, September 2026 revenue report
  64. TrendForce — TSMC Q3 Revenue Beats Forecasts at Record NT$1.49 Trillion
  65. TrendForce — Micron Taiwan's Taoyuan Union Secures Right to Strike With 88.3% Support
  66. BleepingComputer — FBI disrupts Chinese hacking tools used to breach critical infrastructure
  67. The Record — International coalition seizes tools used by cyber firm behind Flax Typhoon
  68. Focus Taiwan — A breakdown of Taiwan's F-16V purchase, as first two jets arrive

Related events

04/11MediumII Cyber & InfrastructureAsia-PacificSinoPac's new mobile banking system was breached through its vendors03/1117:20MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificAI spending fears deepen the chip sell-off in Taipei and Seoul02/11MediumII Cyber & InfrastructureAsia-PacificChinese research ships linger over Taiwan's and Japan's undersea cables02/11MediumIII Conflict & DefenceAsia-PacificChina's coast guard makes patrols east of Taiwan routine30/10MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificTaiwan posts its strongest third quarter in 48 years amid an AI sell-off29/10HighIII Conflict & DefenceAsia-PacificFifth Plenum leaves China's military command to Xi and a single general29/10MediumI Geo-EconomicsSouth AsiaPakistan reopens its airspace to Taiwanese airlines after four days28/1008:15LowII Cyber & InfrastructureAsia-PacificTaiwan election commission file carried ID numbers of 1,573 candidates27/1003:00MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificTSMC reportedly readies an advanced packaging price rise up to 20%24/10MediumII Cyber & InfrastructureAsia-PacificSuspected North Korea-linked group readies PHP exploit against banks

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