MediumVII Reinsurance & Specialty Risk29 October 2026, Thursday
Aon puts nine-month insured catastrophe losses at their lowest since 2019
According to Aon, global insured natural catastrophe losses totalled 91 billion dollars in the first nine months of 2026. That is well below the five-year average of 135 billion dollars for the same period. Economic losses reached 204 billion dollars, leaving 55% uninsured.
Aon's catastrophe recap, published on 29 October, puts nine-month insured losses at their lowest since the 76 billion dollars of 2019. They are, however, slightly above the 21st-century average of 88 billion dollars. Gallagher Re put the same period at 92 billion dollars. The United States set the total, accounting for 62% of insured losses, or 56 billion dollars. The third quarter came in at 29 billion dollars, 31% below the century average. Aon expects the annual total to exceed 100 billion dollars; the fourth-quarter average is 16 billion dollars.
The detail is less reassuring. Loss counts are high and severity low: 23 events left insured losses above 1 billion dollars, against a historical average of 14. The costliest insured event of the year was the European drought, at more than 8.5 billion dollars. No single mega-event pierced reinsurance layers, and that is the ground feeding price cuts at 1 January.
The real gap is on the uninsured side. The 24 June Venezuela earthquake was the year's costliest event, with about 25 billion dollars of economic losses. Because insurance penetration is low, the insured share is expected to remain small. The 10 August Colombia earthquake, at about 9.6 billion dollars, was the costliest of the third quarter. Plenum described this hurricane season on 30 October as the quietest on record by hurricane count and cyclone energy. It saw a "very good chance" of a more active season in 2027. Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures are about 3°C above normal.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Losses 44 billion dollars below the five-year average will be the strongest argument for price cuts at 1 January. But with 23 events above 1 billion dollars, the calm reflects the absence of a mega-event rather than low frequency. The 55% gap and the Venezuelan case show that abundant capacity is not reaching uninsured geographies.
Likely effects
- January renewalPositiveWeeks
A total of 91 billion dollars weakens reinsurers' pricing resistance; buyers will use the figure to negotiate on property catastrophe programmes.
- Protection gapNegative6 months+
Most of the 34.6 billion dollars of economic losses from the Venezuela and Colombia earthquakes is likely to stay on public and household balance sheets.
- Primary insurersNegative1–6 months
The 23 mid-sized events may stay within primary insurers' retentions without reaching reinsurance layers; this adds to a full-year US storm estimate above 43 billion dollars.
- TürkiyeUncertain6 months+
The global 55% gap is a warning for earthquake-exposed Türkiye too; even with ample capacity, the uninsured housing stock determines the burden that falls on the state.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Year ends slightly above $100bn65%
The fourth quarter comes in close to its 16 billion dollar average, and expectations of January price cuts hold.
Watch: Aon and Gallagher Re year-end recaps in January
- 2A late catastrophe upsets the picture20%
A major insured event in November or December weakens expectations of January cuts. This would falsify the cheapening thesis.
Watch: First loss estimates from PERILS and PCS
- 3Losses come in lower still15%
The fourth quarter stays below its 16 billion dollar average, the annual total ends near 100 billion dollars and price cuts approach the upper band.
Watch: Aon's monthly catastrophe recap in early December
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Nine-month insured losses▲ $91bn
- Uninsured share▼ 55%
- Events above $1bn▼ 23