Pillar V
Technology Geopolitics & AI
Semiconductors, export controls, the AI race and asymmetric biological and synthetic technology security risks.
- Events · 30d
- 11
- High importance
- 2
- Reports · 30d
- 2
- Regions
- 5
Tech & AI · event map· 4 items · 2 high importance
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Events
Decision modules
From the latest report: Building a fab versus owning the chain: India's capacity, Taiwan's depth, Japan's demand data · 18 September 2026
Probabilities
Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger | Market impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1Packaging runs ahead, the advanced node lags | 55% | In India, nine ATMP/OSAT projects and plants such as CG Semi enlarge capacity; the Dholera and Longtan timetables do not change. | A second address outside East Asia forms at mature nodes and in packaging and test, while advanced node supply stays concentrated in Taiwan. |
| H2The timetable slips, incentives grow | 30% | The end-2028 permit target at Longtan is missed, or payments under the 1.275 trillion rupee Semicon 2.0 programme are delayed. | The entry into service of announced capacity is pushed to the middle of the 2030s and the gap between commitment and cash widens. |
| H3Demand momentum breaks | 15% | The growth in chip and chip equipment shipments continues the slide from 23.2% in July to 19.3% in August over the following months. | The assumed return on capacity investment weakens and new commitments and expansion approvals slow. |
Module A
Constraints Matrix
STRUCTURAL AVG 3.8 · TACTICAL AVG 2.5Structural constraints dominate: the outcome is set more by these limits than by the actors' preferences.
Hard structural constraintspersistent · beyond the actors' will
Geographic concentration of advanced node capacity · Taiwan
4/5Construction of the 104-hectare expansion at Longtan begins in 2030; beyond the existing 106.94-hectare cluster and its 7,000 jobs there is no near-term advanced node alternative.
No announced production timetable at Dholera · India
4/5Investment of more than 910 billion rupees has been announced for a 50,000-wafer-a-month line, but the sources carry no official information on when the first wafer will come out.
Dependence on imported materials and equipment · India
4/5Despite EDA access for 105 companies, 68,000 chip design engineers and a 20% share of the global design workforce, advanced materials and equipment supply remains imported.
The energy bill is eating the export gain · Japan
3/5In August crude oil import volume rose 3.6% while value rose 58.7%; the trade deficit widened to 1.106 trillion yen for a fourth consecutive month.
Tactical frictiontemporary · eases over time
Permit and environmental assessment timetable months
3/5In the Longtan expansion, development permits and the environmental impact assessment must be completed by the end of 2028; the plan is still awaiting Executive Yuan approval.
Speed at which commitments turn into cash months
3/5No payment timetable has been published for the 1.64 trillion rupee cumulative commitment across twelve projects or for the 1.275 trillion rupee Semicon 2.0 budget; delay pushes back plant openings.
Slowdown in export momentum weeks
2/5Japan's export growth eased from 23.2% in July to 19.3% in August; a pace above expectations but below the previous month.
Water, power and labour burden months
2/5Adding 4,500 people to the existing 7,000 jobs at Longtan increases pressure on infrastructure; yet infrastructure construction does not begin until 2030.
Module B
Signal vs Noise
SIGNAL 67% · NOISE 33%
- SIGNAL
The packaging and test end of the chain in India is now actually running
CG Semi at Sanand has entered commercial production with an initial capacity of 200 million units a year against a target of 5 billion; CDIL's assembly, test and packaging plant at Mohali has opened.
- SIGNAL
The gap between design strength and manufacturing has not closed
20% of the global chip design workforce is in India and 68,000 engineers have gone directly into design; against that, advanced materials and equipment supply remains dependent on imports.
- SIGNAL
Chip demand continued to carry exports in August
Japan's August exports rose 19.3% year on year; shipments to the United States rose 24.9% and to China 20.6%, with chip-related shipments supporting the increase.
- SIGNAL
The import bill is inflated by price, not volume
In August crude oil import volume rose 3.6% while value rose 58.7%; total imports recorded their sharpest increase since November 2022 at 28%.
Data: Brent crude oil ›Nikkei Asia — Japan's 4th straight monthly trade deficit
- NOISE
The expectation that the Longtan expansion will add chip supply in the near term
In the 95.63 billion NT dollar project, permits are to be completed by the end of 2028 and infrastructure construction begins in 2030; the 550 billion NT dollar output target belongs to the period after that timetable.
- NOISE
The perception that a TSMC advanced node fab at Longtan is settled
In May 2026 local media reported that the company was seeking government approval for the post-expansion site; the investment decision could not be independently verified.
Module C
Asset-Class and Positioning Implications
| Asset class | Exposure | Transmission channel | H1 | H2 | H3 | Expected | Conviction | Horizon | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | Semiconductor capital equipment and advanced packaging | The gap between capacity announcements and the actual order and installation timetable | + | − | −− | −0.05 | ●●● | 3–12 months | The first wafer announcement from the Dholera line and the equipment installation timetable |
| Freight & insurance | Electronics shipments out of East Asia | How chip and chip equipment shipment volumes feed into foreign trade data | + | 0 | − | +0.40 | ●●● | 0–3 months | The annual change in chip items in Japan's September trade data |
| Commodities | Crude oil and energy inputs | The import bill swelling from price rather than from volume | 0 | 0 | − | −0.15 | ●●● | 0–3 months | The monthly Brent average and the annual change in the value of crude oil imports |
| FX | Lira cost of electronics imports | Pass-through of the energy and intermediate goods bill to the current account | − | − | 0 | −0.85 | ●●● | 3–12 months | The USDTRY path and the unit value of electronics intermediate goods imports |
| Volatility | Price volatility from the Asian supply chain | Advanced node capacity continuing to concentrate in a single geography | 0 | + | + | +0.45 | ●●● | 3–12 months | Official revision of the Longtan permit timetable and the Executive Yuan decision |
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