Reports

Each report opens with its significance and three implications, and closes with scenarios, a constraints matrix, signal vs noise, asset-class implications and thresholds to watch.

13 reports

22 September 2026I Geo-EconomicsAnalysis · Sub-Saharan Africa · Africa Desk · 9 minAfrica's fuel problem is no longer price but the last mile: the valve, the road and the pump are cut separatelyBrent fell from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September. In the same five days a valve in Libya, a trunk road in Mali and petrol stations in Sudan were cut off; the cheaper barrel touched none of them.
22 September 2026IV Macro & DebtIn-depth analysis · Americas · Macro & Debt Markets Desk · 14 minLatin America was repriced before it was refinanced: risk premiums widened together on 21 SeptemberBrazil's 5-year risk premium rose from 111.80 basis points on 18 September to 121.12 on 21 September, and Mexico's from 79.04 to 84.77. In Argentina country risk stands at 533 basis points, a four-month high. All three countries have their calendars in the next fortnight.
22 September 2026I Geo-EconomicsAnalysis · Eurasia · Eurasia Desk · 9 minRussia's refining loss has stopped being a war statistic and become a monetary policy line: 45% of capacity is outBoth distillation units at the Moscow Refinery burned, and the Kuibyshev and Ufaneftekhim plants were struck on the night of 21–22 September. The Bank of Russia now counts fuel prices within the core inflation dynamic in its rate statement.
22 September 2026IV Macro & DebtAnalysis · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood · Türkiye & Neighbourhood Desk · 10 minInside Türkiye's rising confidence index: spending is being pulled forward while the energy shock builds up at the producerConsumer confidence rose to 91.9 in September, its highest since July 2018. Yet the only sub-index above the 100 threshold is the propensity to spend on durable goods; the index of the current financial situation is the only component that fell.
18 September 2026V Tech & AIAnalysis · South Asia · Technology Geopolitics Desk · 9 minBuilding a fab versus owning the chain: India's capacity, Taiwan's depth, Japan's demand dataWhile India puts money and land into capacity, Taiwan is thickening the cluster it already has; Japan's August data show demand is still pulling. All three moves lead to the same distinction: building a fab and owning the supply chain are not the same thing.
18 September 2026II Cyber & InfrastructureAnalysis · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood · Cyber & Critical Infrastructure Desk · 9 minThe identity layer: 2.6 million attacks, a single CVSS 10.0 flaw and a breach affecting 10,218,802 peopleFour records published on the same day show that the attack surface is shifting to the identity and access layer, and that defence diverges between three days and months according to institutional capacity.
18 September 2026I Geo-EconomicsAnalysis · Europe · Energy & Shipping Desk · 9 minThe buffer is thin in two places at once: European storage at 68.5% while the Asian spot climbs to 30 dollarsEurope enters winter with storage 68.5% full while Asian spot LNG has climbed to 30 dollars. Two sides are competing for the same cargoes, and the outcome is measured not by price but by who withdraws from the market.
18 September 2026I Geo-EconomicsIn-depth analysis · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood · Türkiye & Neighbourhood Desk · 12 minFrom a struck distillation unit to 100-lira diesel: Russian refinery capacity and Türkiye's three-channel billUkrainian drones are cutting Russian refinery capacity, Moscow is closing exports and Türkiye is losing half its cargo allocation. But the 100 lira at the pump is the sum not of one shock but of three separate channels.
16 September 2026I Geo-EconomicsAnalysis · Middle East and North Africa · Energy & Shipping Desk · 9 minTwo straits, one lever: why the Red Sea route is no longer a safe harbour while Hormuz is closedThe closure of the East-West pipeline and the Houthi seizure of the Bab el-Mandeb coast put both exit routes for Gulf exports under pressure in the same week.
16 September 2026IV Macro & DebtAnalysis · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood · Macro & Debt Markets Desk · 9 minThree central banks tighten in the same week: answering a supply shock with rates, and Türkiye's carry flowsThe Fed raised rates on 16 September and the ECB on 10 September; the Bank of Japan is expected to hike on 18 September. As global rates rise, Türkiye's real rate differential is narrowing of its own accord.
15 September 2026III Conflict & DefenceAnalysis · Europe · Defence & Conflict Desk · 8 minUkraine–Russia: as momentum changes hands on the front, the war shifts to energy infrastructureAccording to ISW data, the territory Ukraine recaptured in August exceeded Russian gains; even so, both sides are targeting each other's energy infrastructure more intensively.
15 September 2026V Tech & AIAnalysis · Asia-Pacific · Technology Geopolitics Desk · 8 minThe technology front before the summit: a model distillation accusation, China's memory breakthrough and phase-two chip tariffsTwo weeks before the 24 September Trump–Xi meeting, the US put AI models on the table, China high-bandwidth memory and Taiwan record chip revenue.
12 September 2026II Cyber & InfrastructureAnalysis · Europe · Cyber & Critical Infrastructure Desk · 8 minThe invisible front: subsea cables, zero-day vulnerabilities and 153 million identity documentsThree incidents that came to light in a single week show the threat to critical infrastructure growing simultaneously across the physical, software and data layers.