Decision Ledger
Leaders' preferences come after their constraints. For each actor we track the latest decision, its rationale, what they are compelled to do and the severity of five constraints. The list starts with the narrowest room for manoeuvre.
| Actor | Room | Latest decision | Binding constraint | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRIranGovernment · Revolutionary Guards | Narrow | It kept up the pressure in the Strait of Hormuz: on 21 September the 72,825 dwt crude tanker LR Stephanie was struck as it entered the Gulf and two crew members were lightly injured; the same day a liquefied petroleum gas tanker was hit by munition fragments. The Joint Maritime Information Centre counts at least five incidents since 16 September. In parallel the president travelled to New York for the UN General Assembly and the American side signalled that it was open to talks. | A US naval blockade and the cutting of export revenue | 22 September 2026 |
| TRTürkiyeGovernment · CBRT | Narrow | On 16 September the Ministry of Treasury and Finance published the August budget: a monthly surplus of 12.9 billion lira and a January–August deficit of 1,308.1 billion lira. With the increase that took effect at midnight on 17 September, the pump price of diesel passed 100 lira a litre for the first time; Cumhuriyet listed successive excise duty rises among the reasons for the increase. In the same week the Personal Data Protection Authority (KVKK) made public a data breach at 12 companies affecting 10,218,802 people. | Diesel passing 100 lira for the first time | 18 September 2026 |
| SASaudi ArabiaGovernment · Aramco · OPEC+ | Narrow | It moved the F-35 purchase announced during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Washington in November 2025 to the notification stage: on 17 September the US State Department notified Congress of a 24.3 billion dollar sale covering 48 F-35A aircraft and 49 F135 engines; this would be the first sale of fifth-generation fighter aircraft to Riyadh. Over the same period it kept the East–West pipeline, closed after a drone attack, shut and continued air operations against the Houthis in Yemen. | The East–West line being closed | 18 September 2026 |
| CNChinaState Council · CPC | Limited | Ahead of the summit on 24 September it turned the agenda towards Taiwan: Xi Jinping is reported to be preparing to ask, on the basis of the third joint communiqué of 1982, that the United States halt arms sales to Taiwan. The suspended arms package is worth 14 billion dollars and the package approved in December 2025 is worth 11 billion dollars. On sovereign risk, by contrast, it did not move with the bloc: its five-year risk premium rose from 34.05 basis points on 18 September to 34.35 on 21 September, an increase of only 0.9%. | A tariff wall going up around the North American market | 22 September 2026 |
| RURussiaKremlin · Government | Limited | It closed the State Duma election held on 18–20 September with a constitutional majority: United Russia took 57.83% on the party list, finished ahead in 208 of the 225 single-member districts, and turnout was announced as 59.32%. In the same days it lost the Moscow Refinery in the capital, and then the Kuibyshev plant in Samara and the Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim facilities in Bashkortostan. It made no official statement on the damage; the Ministry of Defence announced that 1,110 Ukrainian drones had been shot down overnight. | The claim that close to half of refining capacity is out of service | 22 September 2026 |
| USUnited StatesWhite House · Pentagon · Treasury | Limited | On 16 September the Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%; in the dot plot published the same day the median federal funds rate for both end-2026 and end-2027 sits in the 4.00–4.25% range, and 12 participants pointed to a quarter point above the current level. On the evening of 16 September the House of Representatives passed the Russia and Iran sanctions bill by 262 votes to 159. On 17 September the State Department notified Congress of a 24.3 billion dollar sale to Saudi Arabia covering 48 F-35A aircraft and 49 F135 engines. | The 10-year yield at 5.04%, its highest level since 2007 | 18 September 2026 |
| UAUkraineGovernment · Armed Forces | Limited | Openly confirmed the counter-offensive north-west of Lyman and continued deep strikes on Russian energy facilities; on 1 September it hit the NOVATEK Ust-Luga complex. | Attacks on the power grid | 15 September 2026 |
| TWTaiwanAdministration · TSMC ecosystem | Limited | Announced a record defence budget of 1 trillion New Taiwan dollars for 2027 and responded to Chinese air and naval activity with patrol aircraft, ships and coastal missiles. | US arms sale on hold | 13 September 2026 |
| JPJapanGovernment · Bank of Japan | Limited | The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.00% in July by an 8–1 vote; it is expected to raise it to 1.25% on 18 September. On 26 August the government unveiled POWERR GX, an energy security package. | Weak yen, USDJPY 155 | 11 September 2026 |
| EUEuropean UnionCommission · Member states | Limited | On 10 September the ECB raised its three policy rates by 25 basis points; the deposit rate rose to 2.50% and took effect on 16 September. | Energy prices and low gas storage | 10 September 2026 |