Scenarios
Probabilistic scenarios from the brief and the reports on a single page. Percentages are calibrated judgement, not measurement; each set reflects what was known on its publication date and is not revised afterwards.
Today's scenarios
From the brief of 22 September 2026 · The benchmark fell, the bill did not
H1The spread stays open
50%- Trigger
- Hormuz traffic runs low, the Russian refining loss accumulates and the split in diagnosis inside the Fed persists.
- Impact
- Crude eases while refined product and the risk premium stay dear; the bill does not fall for product-importing economies.
- Market transmission
- The Mediterranean product premium runs high, emerging market risk premiums become entrenched at their new levels, and dollar refinancing costs stay elevated.
H2Diplomacy turns into traffic
30%- Trigger
- Contacts on the margins of the UN General Assembly bear fruit and weekly transits through Hormuz approach their pre-war band.
- Impact
- The cost of access falls, the product premium narrows and energy-driven price pressure eases quickly in importing economies.
- Market transmission
- Brent and the product premium fall together, Türkiye's energy import bill declines and emerging market premiums narrow.
H3The demand diagnosis wins
20%- Trigger
- US data confirm that inflation is coming from demand and the Fed shifts to a sharper, more front-loaded path.
- Impact
- The dollar discount rate shifts upwards; the bloc-level repricing that began on 21 September deepens.
- Market transmission
- The dollar index strengthens, emerging market sovereign risk premiums widen indiscriminately, and the refinancing window narrows for fragile budgets.
Percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements.
Report scenarios
By pillar, newest first
IGeo-Economics & Chokepoints
5 scenario sets22 September 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Africa's fuel problem is no longer price but the last mile: the valve, the road and the pump are cut separately
The disruptions stay local
55%- Trigger
- The valve in Libya reopens within days, the convoy arrangement in Mali holds, and the drone wave in Sudan remains confined to El-Obeid.
Force majeure in Libya
30%- Trigger
- The interruption on the Sharara line drags on, the National Oil Corporation declares force majeure and the Zawiya refinery halts.
The Sahel blockade widens
15%- Trigger
- The JNIM blockade spreads beyond the Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire corridors and fuel distribution is cut in neighbouring countries too.
22 September 2026 · Eurasia
Russia's refining loss has stopped being a war statistic and become a monetary policy line: 45% of capacity is out
The loss accumulates, the ban is extended
55%- Trigger
- Repairs take weeks, further plants continue to be struck and the diesel export ban is carried beyond 31 October.
Fast repair and partial normalisation
30%- Trigger
- Damage at the Moscow Refinery proves more limited than expected and the distillation units partly return to service within a few weeks.
An energy infrastructure ceasefire
15%- Trigger
- The parties agree a verifiable arrangement placing energy infrastructure off limits.
18 September 2026 · Europe
The buffer is thin in two places at once: European storage at 68.5% while the Asian spot climbs to 30 dollars
A two-way squeeze persists
50%- Trigger
- The Hormuz constraint and the narrowing in Qatari LNG flows persist; the EU storage gap stays in the 16-point band.
Supply partly normalises
25%- Trigger
- Norwegian maintenance ends, Qatari flows through Hormuz partly reopen and spot LNG falls towards the 10 dollar floor.
A cold snap and a second interruption
25%- Trigger
- An early cold snap accelerates storage withdrawal while seven fields close in Libya or an Armenia-type interruption is repeated.
18 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood
From a struck distillation unit to 100-lira diesel: Russian refinery capacity and Türkiye's three-channel bill
Scarcity becomes permanent
50%- Trigger
- Repairs to AVT-3 and AVT-4 drag on, capacity does not return at the other plants struck, and the ban is carried beyond 31 October.
Gradual normalisation
30%- Trigger
- Repairs progress, the tempo of attacks falls and the ban ends on 31 October without extension.
A second shock wave
20%- Trigger
- New deep strikes interrupt the remaining primary distillation capacity, or exchange rate pressure passes the 50 lira threshold.
16 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
Two straits, one lever: why the Red Sea route is no longer a safe harbour while Hormuz is closed
Protracted siege
55%- Trigger
- The pipeline stays shut for weeks and the Salalah corridor is not implemented.
Partial reopening
25%- Trigger
- The pipeline reopens within days and the Iran–Oman corridor operates in a limited way.
Second rupture
20%- Trigger
- Territorial control in Bab el-Mandeb feeds through to trade, or Saudi export infrastructure is attacked again.
IICyber Warfare & Critical Infrastructure
2 scenario sets18 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood
The identity layer: 2.6 million attacks, a single CVSS 10.0 flaw and a breach affecting 10,218,802 people
Scattered breaches, accumulated cost
50%- Trigger
- The Cisco ISE flaw is scanned for en masse on internet-exposed instances and large institutions patch in time; KVKK notifications continue among mid-sized companies.
A ransom wave from the identity layer
30%- Trigger
- CVE-2026-76460 is adopted by ransomware groups as an initial access route and the monthly regional record rises above the level of 357.
Regulatory tightening
13%- Trigger
- KVKK investigations end in administrative fines and a requirement for third-party component inventories comes onto the agenda.
A visible outage in critical infrastructure
7%- Trigger
- A telecom, energy or port operator whose identity infrastructure is compromised suffers an operational stoppage that reaches the public.
12 September 2026 · Europe
The invisible front: subsea cables, zero-day vulnerabilities and 153 million identity documents
Continued grey-zone pressure
60%- Trigger
- Cable rehearsals, espionage campaigns and data leaks continue without causing outages.
Physical outage
25%- Trigger
- A data or energy cable in northern Europe is actually damaged.
Mass exploitation wave
15%- Trigger
- BlueMoon-type vulnerabilities are used in a way that causes outages in finance or the power grid.
IIIKinetic Conflicts & Defence
1 scenario set15 September 2026 · Europe
Ukraine–Russia: as momentum changes hands on the front, the war shifts to energy infrastructure
Infrastructure war continues
60%- Trigger
- The front stays largely static and both sides keep up strikes on energy infrastructure.
Mutual pause
20%- Trigger
- A mutual pause in strikes on energy infrastructure is agreed.
Front in motion
20%- Trigger
- Ukraine's Lyman offensive widens or Russia launches a major new offensive.
IVMacro Policy & Sovereign Debt
3 scenario sets22 September 2026 · Americas
Latin America was repriced before it was refinanced: risk premiums widened together on 21 September
Uncertainty persists, premiums stay in a high band
50%- Trigger
- The supply-versus-demand argument inside the Fed is not settled, the Argentine review drags on and the USMCA round produces no concrete tariff reduction.
The calendar passes cleanly
30%- Trigger
- Argentina makes its 25 September payment and the review concludes positively, the 28 September Washington round yields a tariff reduction, and the Brazilian election produces a market-friendly fiscal framework.
The demand diagnosis wins
20%- Trigger
- US data confirm that inflation is coming from demand and the Fed shifts to a sharper, more front-loaded path.
22 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood
Inside Türkiye's rising confidence index: spending is being pulled forward while the energy shock builds up at the producer
Pulling forward continues, the bill accumulates
55%- Trigger
- Traffic through Hormuz stays low, the cost of energy imports runs high and demand for durable goods keeps being pulled forward on price expectations.
The strait normalises
30%- Trigger
- Diplomacy advances, traffic through Hormuz approaches its pre-war level and the energy import premium recedes.
The global bloc move reaches Türkiye too
15%- Trigger
- Uncertainty over the dollar rate persists and the simultaneous widening of emerging market risk premiums feeds through to Türkiye as well.
16 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood
Three central banks tighten in the same week: answering a supply shock with rates, and Türkiye's carry flows
Patient tightness
55%- Trigger
- The Fed hikes once more by year-end, the CBRT holds rates and oil stays above 100 dollars.
Energy relief
25%- Trigger
- Physical flows through Hormuz increase and oil falls markedly.
Carry unwind
20%- Trigger
- The yen strengthens on a Japanese rate hike, global leveraged positions unwind and a new oil shock hits.
VTechnology Geopolitics & AI
2 scenario sets18 September 2026 · South Asia
Building a fab versus owning the chain: India's capacity, Taiwan's depth, Japan's demand data
Packaging runs ahead, the advanced node lags
55%- Trigger
- In India, nine ATMP/OSAT projects and plants such as CG Semi enlarge capacity; the Dholera and Longtan timetables do not change.
The timetable slips, incentives grow
30%- Trigger
- The end-2028 permit target at Longtan is missed, or payments under the 1.275 trillion rupee Semicon 2.0 programme are delayed.
Demand momentum breaks
15%- Trigger
- The growth in chip and chip equipment shipments continues the slide from 23.2% in July to 19.3% in August over the following months.
15 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific
The technology front before the summit: a model distillation accusation, China's memory breakthrough and phase-two chip tariffs
Truce extended, tech front hardens
55%- Trigger
- The truce is extended by one year at the summit; chip controls and distillation countermeasures continue.
Rupture
25%- Trigger
- The summit is cancelled or China responds to the distillation advisory with concrete countermeasures.
Broad détente
20%- Trigger
- Tariff cuts and approval for some chip sales are announced at the summit.