Skip to content
TALAYINSIGHT

Scenarios

Probabilistic scenarios from the brief and the reports on a single page. Percentages are calibrated judgement, not measurement; each set reflects what was known on its publication date and is not revised afterwards.

Today's scenarios

From the brief of 6 November 2026 · Prices swing while the buffers quietly drain

Open in the brief ›

  • H1Prices swing, buffers drain

    50%
    Trigger
    Brent swings in a 90–105 dollar band, the Gulf war premium stays at 6–10%, and the Yanbu outlet remains under threat but open.
    Impact
    Importers keep paying the bill out of stocks and reserves; in Türkiye, net reserves excluding swaps approach the 20 billion dollar threshold within weeks.
    Market transmission
    Quiet pressure on energy importers' currencies, volatility at the front of the crude curve, and elevated Gulf and Red Sea freight and war-risk cover.

  • H2A political framework rebuilds the buffers

    30%
    Trigger
    The Abu Dhabi round and the new balance in Washington accelerate framework talks; the war premium falls below 2% and transits pick up.
    Impact
    Lower prices turn into physical supply; the reserve drain stops, Egypt recalls its deferred cargoes and Dangote stops drawing on stocks.
    Market transmission
    Emerging-market risk premia tighten, the front of the crude curve eases, and war-risk quotes come down.

  • H3A buffer breaks

    20%
    Trigger
    The Yanbu outlet is hit, or Türkiye's net reserves excluding swaps fall below 20 billion dollars.
    Impact
    The swings turn into a break; Brent returns to its 113 dollar peak, and importers resort to demand curbs and emergency financing.
    Market transmission
    A spike in crude and diesel margins, sharp depreciation in energy importers' currencies, and wider CDS spreads.

Percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements.

Report scenarios

By pillar, newest first

IGeo-Economics & Chokepoints

24 scenario sets

  • 29 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Political sovereignty came in a day, economic sovereignty took thirty-one years

    • The constraint holds, substitutes multiply

      55%
      Trigger
      External borrowing stays expensive, the 5-year credit premium settles above 280 basis points and rolling over through foreign funding gets dearer.

    • Rolling over gets easier

      30%
      Trigger
      Global yields retreat or the domestic fiscal framework is anchored in numbers; the risk premium narrows and access to external finance cheapens.

    • Sharp squeeze

      15%
      Trigger
      An external shock or a jump in the energy bill erodes the reserve buffer quickly and the cost of rolling over moves up a step.

  • 28 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Made in EU bargaining puts Türkiye's customs union to the test

    • Narrow exemption

      50%
      Trigger
      Parliament and Council accept a targeted exemption for existing investments and heavy commercial vehicles, while narrowing the origin definition for new investments.

    • Equivalence holds

      35%
      Trigger
      The Council position applies Articles 8 and 9 of the Commission proposal to automotive as well, and customs union content counts as EU origin.

    • Türkiye is left out

      15%
      Trigger
      The Franco-German position makes it into the text, tying the origin criterion to a definition that covers the United Kingdom but not Türkiye.

  • 27 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    The Crete–Cyprus cable is blocked by contested seabed, not engineering

    • Tension at sea, another postponement

      50%
      Trigger
      The Greek NAVTEX is issued without notification and Türkiye answers with a counter-NAVTEX and vessel surveillance.

    • Indirect notification formula

      35%
      Trigger
      Nexans or France passes the coordinates to Ankara and Türkiye does not object.

    • Crisis and suspension

      15%
      Trigger
      Greece extends its territorial sea to 12 miles south of Crete, or France formally suspends the project.

  • 25 October 2026 · Eurasia

    Washington turns Kyiv's connectivity and Moscow's energy access into bargaining chips

    • Two-way pressure persists

      55%
      Trigger
      The US keeps the energy door ajar, Kyiv keeps up its deep strikes and the Abu Dhabi round ends without a framework document.

    • Energy ceasefire package

      30%
      Trigger
      A mutual understanding halting refinery and grid strikes is announced in Abu Dhabi, together with a timetable for sanctions relief.

    • Breakdown and escalation

      15%
      Trigger
      The talks are postponed, Starshield is throttled again and Russia launches a heavy missile wave on Kyiv.

  • 14 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    The Black Sea moratorium hinges on the refinery bargain, not Ankara

    • Unsigned text, continued attacks

      50%
      Trigger
      The Kremlin does not confirm the energy ceasefire, new ships are lost in the economic zones, and the moratorium goes unsigned.

    • Shipping annex to the energy package

      30%
      Trigger
      Washington puts the refinery–grid ceasefire in writing and a pause in ship attacks is added to the package.

    • EU mission and Montreux tension

      20%
      Trigger
      The EU adopts Bulgaria's naval-mission proposal on 15–16 October and attacks continue.

  • 12 October 2026 · Europe

    Europe's preference for home-built cars runs into Berlin's China sales

    • Summit puts the Beijing understanding first

      55%
      Trigger
      The 15–16 October summit endorses the 16-point understanding and mentions the European preference in general terms, adding no date or ratio to the content rule.

    • Paris–Berlin trade-off goes public

      30%
      Trigger
      Berlin openly backs the Made in Europe rule in exchange for flexibility on the 2035 CO2 target, and the Council sets its negotiating position by year-end.

    • China moves first

      15%
      Trigger
      Before the summit Beijing opens an anti-discrimination or subsidy investigation into EU goods, or slows rare-earth licences.

  • 6 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Black Sea risk reaches NATO economic zones; small Turkish owners pay

    • Sporadic attacks, moratorium in limbo

      55%
      Trigger
      The October round ends with a statement of principles, Moscow gives no formal reply on the moratorium, and several merchant ships a month keep being hit in the western Black Sea.

    • Narrow reciprocal arrangement

      25%
      Trigger
      The Türkiye–UN round produces a limited text of reciprocal commitments covering commercial navigation and grain infrastructure.

    • Escalation nears Turkish waters

      20%
      Trigger
      A merchant ship is hit in Türkiye's economic zone or the Bosphorus approaches, or Ankara systematically delays transit permits.

  • 3 October 2026 · Eurasia

    Russian diesel has left the market, and G7 stocks only buy time

    • The bridge holds, the gap persists

      50%
      Trigger
      The G7 release proceeds on schedule, the US imposes no export ban and the Russian ban is extended into November.

    • The US narrows the export gate

      30%
      Trigger
      US pump prices keep rising and Washington imposes curbs on diesel exports.

    • Russian supply returns

      20%
      Trigger
      Russia lifts the ban on 31 October, or an energy ceasefire halts refinery attacks.

  • 3 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    The Ukraine trade door opens, but Black Sea insurance narrows it

    • Trade held back by insurance

      55%
      Trigger
      The war risk area is not narrowed, attacks on Odesa's ports continue and quotes remain valid for only 24 hours.

    • Turkish ports become a transhipment hub

      30%
      Trigger
      Turkish territorial waters stay outside the area and part of Ukraine's cargo starts to be transhipped through Turkish ports.

    • The port front escalates

      15%
      Trigger
      Attacks spread to open waters near the Turkish coast and insurance clubs narrow cover on voyages to Turkish ports as well.

  • 2 October 2026 · Eurasia

    Russia's maritime front stretches from the Baltic to Arctic LNG

    • The cycle settles into insurance premiums

      55%
      Trigger
      Occasional inspections continue in the Gulf of Finland, the Russian diesel ban is extended beyond 31 October and the entire Black Sea stays under high-risk reporting.

    • Inspections become routine in the Baltic

      30%
      Trigger
      Russia detains a second ship in the Gulf of Finland within four weeks, and the EU lists new vessels in its 22nd package.

    • Tension eases before winter

      15%
      Trigger
      The parties reach an interim arrangement limiting attacks on energy infrastructure, and the Russian diesel ban is lifted on 31 October.

  • 1 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    As Hormuz heats up, oil's real risk shifts to the Red Sea

    • The load stays piled on one strait

      55%
      Trigger
      The East-West pipeline stays in the 2.0–2.65 million barrel a day range, Bab el-Mandeb flows hover around 2.56 million barrels, and attacks in Hormuz remain sporadic but persistent.

    • The Red Sea outlet reopens

      25%
      Trigger
      The East-West pipeline nears full capacity, Yanbu loadings continue without attack, and daily transits at Bab el-Mandeb rise clearly above 26 ships.

    • Both fronts choke at once

      20%
      Trigger
      Intensifying attacks in Hormuz push transits below 9 ships, while at the same time a new hijacking occurs in the Gulf of Aden or a new attack in the Red Sea.

  • 30 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    A data fog settles on oil as two major supply sources blur

    • The fog persists and headlines set the price

      55%
      Trigger
      US–Iran bargaining drags on without result and the share of signal-off transits at Hormuz stays around 58%. The 10-day implementation period of the Russian decree runs out.

    • The flow is verified and the premium unwinds

      25%
      Trigger
      Washington responds positively to the proposal Iran conveyed through Qatar, and visible transits at Hormuz rise clearly above the 24 ships of 27 September.

    • The fog turns into bad news

      20%
      Trigger
      Talks break down or there is a new attack at Hormuz. The weekly Kpler flow stays below 33.7 million barrels and Russian refinery losses become impossible to track.

  • 29 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Yanbu oil flows again as Red Sea risk settles into insurance premiums

    • Fragile recovery

      55%
      Trigger
      Yanbu loadings continue and East-West pipeline throughput rises within weeks; there is no major new attack at Bab el-Mandeb, but transits stay in the 30–43 range.

    • A new blow to the Red Sea

      25%
      Trigger
      Houthi or drone attacks hit Yanbu or the pumping stations again; the TPLF cuts the Djibouti highway.

    • Risk premium unwinds

      20%
      Trigger
      A round of US–Iran talks is announced, visible transits through Hormuz rise and several weeks pass without attacks in the Red Sea.

  • 28 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Both exit gates under pressure as markets price a lasting disruption

    • Both gates stay narrow

      50%
      Trigger
      No formal round of talks is announced, daily Hormuz transits stay below 18 ships, and Houthi attacks on Saudi targets continue.

    • Talks reopen

      30%
      Trigger
      Washington and Tehran announce a date for a new round this week or in early October, with a written step on the blockade or sanctions.

    • The Red Sea gate narrows too

      20%
      Trigger
      Damage at Yanbu is confirmed or East–West pipeline throughput falls again; transits through Bab el-Mandeb decline.

  • 27 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    The spread draws a border: the Hormuz disruption is now priced outside the US, and Brent-linked importers pay for the $11.91 gap

    • Escorted deadlock, spread above $10

      55%
      Trigger
      With the 7-day plan rejected, the deadlock persists, the blockade and escorted departures continue, and the diesel ban debate stays on the table.

    • Phased package, spread narrows

      30%
      Trigger
      A narrowed offer via Qatar or Oman is accepted, Hormuz transits exceed 20 a day and the ban is shelved.

    • Diesel wall and a new attack

      15%
      Trigger
      The US restricts diesel exports, or a new attack on a facility or tanker occurs around the Red Sea and Yanbu.

  • 27 September 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa

    On the Indian Ocean's western rim, the same fuel gap is paid with three separate bills: refinery capital, maritime security and an IMF tranche

    • The gap is carried on debt

      50%
      Trigger
      Hormuz stays partly closed and Bab el-Mandeb in a band of 20–30 transits a day; Pakistan reaches a staff-level agreement in October, and Lamu starts on a limited scale with the groundbreaking.

    • The straits reopen, the gap becomes invisible

      30%
      Trigger
      Iran's 7-day plan is implemented, Hormuz transits exceed 40, and Brent futures fall below $95.

    • The sea lane breaks a second time

      20%
      Trigger
      Houthi attacks and Gulf of Aden piracy escalate together, daily Bab el-Mandeb transits fall below 20, and Brent futures exceed $110.

  • 25 September 2026 · Eurasia

    Russia's war economy squeezed at the port and in the budget: 90% of Krasnodar's grain export capacity out, 2027 gap closed with new taxes

    • Mutual infrastructure war continues

      55%
      Trigger
      Ukraine continues its strikes on ports and refineries, Russia keeps hitting Ukrainian energy and port infrastructure; the safe passage proposal remains at the contact stage.

    • Limited grain–energy ceasefire

      30%
      Trigger
      A limited ceasefire covering grain and energy infrastructure is accepted through US and Turkish mediation.

    • Escalation

      15%
      Trigger
      Attacks concentrate on commercial ships in the Black Sea and on traffic approaching the Turkish Straits.

  • 24 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Hormuz price decouples from flow: Brent lost $9.50 in 5 sessions, regained $4.06 on 23 September; 3 ships in the strait, US stocks up 2.97 million barrels

    • Price and flow stay decoupled

      55%
      Trigger
      The list of conditions stays at 7, visible transits run below the 10-day average of about 15, and the East-West line ramps up gradually from low throughput.

    • Bypass and diplomacy ease together

      25%
      Trigger
      The East-West line approaches its 4 million barrels a day target and the US and Iran agree a written timetable on the sequencing of conditions.

    • The bypass is hit too

      20%
      Trigger
      The East-West line or the Yanbu terminal is halted again by an attack similar to that of 13 September, or Bab el-Mandeb transits fall below 20.

  • 23 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Two channels on Hormuz: a 7-day reopening offer at the table, a fine of 20% of cargo in parliament

    • Talks continue, transits stay low

      55%
      Trigger
      The mediation channel stays open but the US announces no written plan on the blockade or operations; the penalty articles wait in the full parliament.

    • Phased reopening timetable

      30%
      Trigger
      The White House announces a plan to ease the blockade or halt operations, and Iran starts the 7-day clock.

    • Penalty regime takes effect

      15%
      Trigger
      The bill passes the full parliament and Iran enforces its first detention or 20% fine.

  • 22 September 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa

    Africa's fuel problem is no longer price but the last mile: the valve, the road and the pump are cut separately

    • The disruptions stay local

      55%
      Trigger
      The valve in Libya reopens within days, the convoy arrangement in Mali holds, and the drone wave in Sudan remains confined to El-Obeid.

    • Force majeure in Libya

      30%
      Trigger
      The interruption on the Sharara line drags on, the National Oil Corporation declares force majeure and the Zawiya refinery halts.

    • The Sahel blockade widens

      15%
      Trigger
      The JNIM blockade spreads beyond the Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire corridors and fuel distribution is cut in neighbouring countries too.

  • 22 September 2026 · Eurasia

    Russia's refining loss has stopped being a war statistic and become a monetary policy line: 45% of capacity is out

    • The loss accumulates, the ban is extended

      55%
      Trigger
      Repairs take weeks, further plants continue to be struck and the diesel export ban is carried beyond 31 October.

    • Fast repair and partial normalisation

      30%
      Trigger
      Damage at the Moscow Refinery proves more limited than expected and the distillation units partly return to service within a few weeks.

    • An energy infrastructure ceasefire

      15%
      Trigger
      The parties agree a verifiable arrangement placing energy infrastructure off limits.

  • 18 September 2026 · Europe

    The buffer is thin in two places at once: European storage at 68.5% while the Asian spot climbs to 30 dollars

    • A two-way squeeze persists

      50%
      Trigger
      The Hormuz constraint and the narrowing in Qatari LNG flows persist; the EU storage gap stays in the 16-point band.

    • Supply partly normalises

      25%
      Trigger
      Norwegian maintenance ends, Qatari flows through Hormuz partly reopen and spot LNG falls towards the 10 dollar floor.

    • A cold snap and a second interruption

      25%
      Trigger
      An early cold snap accelerates storage withdrawal while seven fields close in Libya or an Armenia-type interruption is repeated.

  • 18 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    From a struck distillation unit to 100-lira diesel: Russian refinery capacity and Türkiye's three-channel bill

    • Scarcity becomes permanent

      50%
      Trigger
      Repairs to AVT-3 and AVT-4 drag on, capacity does not return at the other plants struck, and the ban is carried beyond 31 October.

    • Gradual normalisation

      30%
      Trigger
      Repairs progress, the tempo of attacks falls and the ban ends on 31 October without extension.

    • A second shock wave

      20%
      Trigger
      New deep strikes interrupt the remaining primary distillation capacity, or exchange rate pressure passes the 50 lira threshold.

  • 16 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Two straits, one lever: why the Red Sea route is no longer a safe harbour while Hormuz is closed

    • Protracted siege

      55%
      Trigger
      The pipeline stays shut for weeks and the Salalah corridor is not implemented.

    • Partial reopening

      25%
      Trigger
      The pipeline reopens within days and the Iran–Oman corridor operates in a limited way.

    • Second rupture

      20%
      Trigger
      Territorial control in Bab el-Mandeb feeds through to trade, or Saudi export infrastructure is attacked again.

IICyber Warfare & Critical Infrastructure

12 scenario sets

  • 4 November 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Binance's own treasury, not its insurers, is paying for the heist

    • The balance sheet stays the insurer

      55%
      Trigger
      Neither Binance nor a broker discloses a commercial recovery, and no custody structure above $1 billion is placed before 1 January 2027.

    • Capacity grows but stays below the threshold

      30%
      Trigger
      Lloyd's or the large brokers announce new custody structures, with limits rising to around $1 billion.

    • Recovery defuses the shock

      15%
      Trigger
      Most of the frozen $2.85 billion is returned and the net loss drops below $3.5 billion.

  • 30 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    In Japan, the cyber bill lands on balance sheets, not policies

    • Losses stay on the balance sheet

      55%
      Trigger
      The emergency package leaves the coverage gap untouched and cyber-related extraordinary losses rise in November results.

    • The state shares the risk

      30%
      Trigger
      Takaichi's package includes SME support or a publicly backed cyber risk mechanism.

    • Attribution triggers the exclusion

      15%
      Trigger
      Tokyo formally ties the wave to a state and insurers raise the war exclusion against claims.

  • 28 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Asia's cyber wave hits brokers' rented servers, not the banks

    • Contained spread, tighter regulation

      55%
      Trigger
      No new major data dump follows, the number of reporting firms stays flat and both governments announce packages bringing the rented server layer under supervision.

    • Spillover to new providers

      30%
      Trigger
      The same PHP or VPS flaw is found at other hosting companies; more than 5 firms in Japan and more than 19 in Korea are affected.

    • Rapid fade

      15%
      Trigger
      GMO's bounty leads to arrests and no new breaches are reported in November.

  • 25 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    The PHP patch is out, but Asia's attack window remains open

    • Scattered, contained breaches

      55%
      Trigger
      The campaign starts and web shells turn up at a few unpatched organisations, but there is no systemic financial disruption.

    • Targeted financial breach

      30%
      Trigger
      A large PHP2Shell data leak is confirmed at a bank or government agency in Korea, Japan or Taiwan.

    • The window closes early

      15%
      Trigger
      Reliable exploit code fails to appear, patching and isolation spread quickly and Korea lowers its alert.

  • 21 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Cyber and maritime pressure on Taiwan converge on the election calendar

    • High plateau

      55%
      Trigger
      Daily attacks stay above 2.5 million, law-enforcement incursions continue at Pratas and off the east coast, and no major outage occurs.

    • Visible escalation

      30%
      Trigger
      Government or candidate data leak before the vote, or the Chinese coast guard detains a Taiwanese boat at Pratas.

    • Fading out

      15%
      Trigger
      August–September attack figures come in well below July and no new incursion is reported at Pratas.

  • 18 October 2026 · Americas

    Attackers no longer break the door; they borrow the supplier's key

    • A wave of permission audits

      50%
      Trigger
      ConnectWise rotates its credentials, affected tenants stay in the low hundreds, and organisations narrow third-party app permissions.

    • Backdoors come to light

      30%
      Trigger
      The number of tenants with newly written secret keys grows, the BeyondTrust flaw is exploited widely, and data breach disclosures follow.

    • A contained incident

      20%
      Trigger
      ConnectWise confirms no data was taken, the BeyondTrust patch is applied quickly, and no new major leak is disclosed in Japan.

  • 12 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Japan's data leaks shift the cost onto identity checks

    • Voluntary, phased switch

      55%
      Trigger
      Large banks end image-based account opening before 2027 while smaller institutions wait for 1 April 2027; no new legislation arrives.

    • Timetable brought forward by law

      30%
      Trigger
      The government advances the ordinance's 1 April 2027 date or imposes extra requirements on crypto and money-transfer firms.

    • Wave of fake accounts

      15%
      Trigger
      Accounts opened with leaked documents appear in police records as vehicles for fraud or money laundering, and the FSA takes administrative action.

  • 9 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Japan's cyber weak point is backups sitting beside the attack

    • Partial recovery, slow separation

      55%
      Trigger
      IDC Frontier reopens unaffected zones, data in the 4 zones partly returns and any leak stays limited.

    • Leak and regulation

      30%
      Trigger
      The outside investigation confirms data was exfiltrated; municipalities including Kodaira report personal data breaches.

    • Full recovery

      15%
      Trigger
      The company quickly restores the 4 zones from its own backups and no leak is found.

  • 3 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Korean bank leaks expose how thin the cyber insurance floor is

    • Audit wave, limited bill

      55%
      Trigger
      The 178-institution sweep finds a few more small leaks, but none exceeds 25,000 people and compensation is paid from the banks' own budgets.

    • A second major leak

      30%
      Trigger
      The same method leaks data on more than 100,000 customers, or a card company is hit.

    • Swift closure

      15%
      Trigger
      No new leak notifications arrive and the FSC publishes a new authentication standard for external services within 30 days.

  • 2 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Edge devices become a shared doorway as patch windows shrink to three days

    • High tempo, limited pricing

      55%
      Trigger
      KEV keeps adding 15–20 edge product entries a month in October, but no incident causes a service outage in critical infrastructure.

    • An edge incident becomes a systemic cost

      30%
      Trigger
      A flaw in a widely used VPN or SD-WAN product causes simultaneous outages at several organisations in energy, transport or finance.

    • The tempo eases

      15%
      Trigger
      September's 43 entries prove a one-off, and monthly KEV volume in October and November falls below the 2026 average of about 25.

  • 18 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    The identity layer: 2.6 million attacks, a single CVSS 10.0 flaw and a breach affecting 10,218,802 people

    • Scattered breaches, accumulated cost

      50%
      Trigger
      The Cisco ISE flaw is scanned for en masse on internet-exposed instances and large institutions patch in time; KVKK notifications continue among mid-sized companies.

    • A ransom wave from the identity layer

      30%
      Trigger
      CVE-2026-76460 is adopted by ransomware groups as an initial access route and the monthly regional record rises above the level of 357.

    • Regulatory tightening

      13%
      Trigger
      KVKK investigations end in administrative fines and a requirement for third-party component inventories comes onto the agenda.

    • A visible outage in critical infrastructure

      7%
      Trigger
      A telecom, energy or port operator whose identity infrastructure is compromised suffers an operational stoppage that reaches the public.

  • 12 September 2026 · Europe

    The invisible front: subsea cables, zero-day vulnerabilities and 153 million identity documents

    • Continued grey-zone pressure

      60%
      Trigger
      Cable rehearsals, espionage campaigns and data leaks continue without causing outages.

    • Physical outage

      25%
      Trigger
      A data or energy cable in northern Europe is actually damaged.

    • Mass exploitation wave

      15%
      Trigger
      BlueMoon-type vulnerabilities are used in a way that causes outages in finance or the power grid.

IIIKinetic Conflicts & Defence

5 scenario sets

IVMacro Policy & Sovereign Debt

60 scenario sets

  • 6 November 2026 · Europe

    The Bank of England hikes, yet gilts remain Europe's costliest debt

    • One insurance hike, then a committee on hold

      50%
      Trigger
      Brent stays in a 95–108 dollar band until 17 December and pay growth remains stuck around 3.5%.

    • Energy climbs again and a second hike comes forward

      35%
      Trigger
      Tanker attacks in the Gulf continue and January Brent returns above 108 dollars.

    • A deal and a rapid reversal

      15%
      Trigger
      The US and Iran reach a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent falls below 90 dollars.

  • 5 November 2026 · Americas

    Congress changed hands, but Treasuries priced oil, not fiscal discipline

    • A brief stopgap, the ceiling waits for spring

      55%
      Trigger
      A brief stopgap running into January or February passes on 11 December, without the debt ceiling in the package.

    • Shutdown and protracted bargaining

      30%
      Trigger
      No deal emerges on 11 December, a brief government shutdown follows and Trump carries out his veto threat.

    • A lame-duck package

      15%
      Trigger
      The current Congress passes a full-year budget together with a debt ceiling increase in December.

  • 5 November 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    The lira is dearest in six years, yet underlying inflation stays put

    • The expensive lira persists

      55%
      Trigger
      The CBRT keeps monthly depreciation at around 1.8% and Brent stays in a $90–100 band.

    • Oil brings relief

      30%
      Trigger
      January Brent futures hold below $94 and the energy component drops below 2% on the month in November.

    • Competitiveness snaps

      15%
      Trigger
      Brent returns above $100, reserves keep falling and pressure from industry grows.

  • 4 November 2026 · Europe

    The ECB hikes ahead of base effects as the euro tracks oil

    • One hike, then a pause

      55%
      Trigger
      Flash HICP on 4 November lands in the 3.7–4.0% range, and on 17 December the Governing Council lifts the deposit rate to 2.75% while signalling a pause.

    • Back-to-back tightening

      30%
      Trigger
      Flash HICP exceeds 4% and services inflation rises; the Council hikes in December and leaves the door open for January or March.

    • A hold in December

      15%
      Trigger
      Iran diplomacy sends oil sharply lower and the flash reading comes in below 3.5%; the Council keeps rates at 2.50% and waits for base effects.

  • 4 November 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    The lira passes 50 as the energy bill loosens the crawl

    • Managed acceleration

      55%
      Trigger
      Brent stays above 100 dollars and the CBRT holds monthly depreciation in a 1.8–2.0% band.

    • Energy relief

      30%
      Trigger
      January Brent falls below 90 dollars and November energy imports drop markedly.

    • A dollarisation wave

      15%
      Trigger
      Net reserves excluding swaps fall below 30 billion dollars, the monthly pace exceeds 2% and resident demand for foreign currency rises.

  • 3 November 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    October inflation makes the CBRT's 28% forecast arithmetically unreachable

    • Forecast rises, cuts slow

      50%
      Trigger
      On 12 November the year-end forecast is raised to around 30%, the interim target is kept, and reserve losses slow but do not stop.

    • Reserve constraint halts cuts

      30%
      Trigger
      Net reserves excluding swaps fall below 30 billion dollars, January Brent tops 110 dollars or Black Sea war premiums exceed 1%.

    • Oil eases, path is preserved

      20%
      Trigger
      US–Iran diplomacy advances, January Brent falls below 95 dollars and November CPI comes in below 1.5%.

  • 3 November 2026 · Americas

    Treasury's coupon lock pushes rate risk onto bills

    • Sizes held, language loosened

      55%
      Trigger
      The 125 billion dollar package is kept on 4 November and the 'at least the next several quarters' formula gives way to more flexible wording.

    • Signal of cuts at the far end

      30%
      Trigger
      The Treasury signals smaller 20 and 30-year auctions in 2027, moving in the direction Citigroup expects.

    • Coupon increases come early

      15%
      Trigger
      The Treasury brings forward language on increases in the 2–10 year bucket to cap the bill share.

  • 31 October 2026 · Europe

    One policy rate cannot carry four inflations; France bears the real burden

    • 25 basis points in December, the spread persists

      55%
      Trigger
      Euro area October data comes in at 3.8% or above and the ECB raises the deposit rate to 2.75% on 17 December.

    • Energy eases and the ECB waits

      25%
      Trigger
      The flash estimate comes in below 3.8%, tariff pressure eases as Brent recedes, and the council defers the increase to the following meeting.

    • France breaks

      20%
      Trigger
      The 2027 budget is blocked or the government falls, and the OAT–Bund spread passes 174.6 basis points.

  • 30 October 2026 · Europe

    The bond market did the ECB's work, then the Bund cushion melted

    • A 25 basis point hike in December

      60%
      Trigger
      October and November inflation stays above 3.5%, the Bund yield moves sideways around 3.40% and new projections lift 2027 inflation

    • The pause extends to February

      25%
      Trigger
      Third-quarter growth disappoints, credit growth falls below 4% and oil drops markedly after the front-month roll

    • A France-driven pause

      15%
      Trigger
      The French spread breaks above 174.6 basis points and S&P's 27 November review turns out negative

  • 29 October 2026 · Americas

    Canada's hike flattened its curve; the Fed's hold steepened America's

    • Fed hikes in December, BoC holds

      45%
      Trigger
      PCE and growth data on 29 October come in strong and the Fed moves to 4.00–4.25% on 9 December; the BoC holds the same day, citing the fourth-quarter slowdown

    • Double hike in December

      30%
      Trigger
      Energy prices stay high, Canadian CPI approaches 3.5% and both banks hike by 25 basis points together on 9 December

    • The Fed holds again

      25%
      Trigger
      PCE and jobs data weaken or oil falls markedly; the Fed holds in December as well

  • 28 October 2026 · Americas

    The energy shock splits central banks three ways in a single week

    • Uneven tightening

      55%
      Trigger
      The BoC hikes on 28 October, the Fed holds hawkishly with 1–2 dissents and the ECB leaves the door open for December

    • Growth brake

      30%
      Trigger
      The BoC holds, the Fed holds unanimously and the ECB stresses tightening credit; US growth and PCE data on 29 October come in weak

    • Synchronised hawkish turn

      15%
      Trigger
      The Fed delivers a surprise hike or faces 3 dissents, and the ECB statement clearly signals a December hike

  • 27 October 2026 · Americas

    Brazil shock reprices the fiscal credibility premium across emerging markets

    • The anchor arrives late

      50%
      Trigger
      Lula's team announces a numerical spending rule during November and the central bank pauses its easing

    • A crisis of confidence

      35%
      Trigger
      The fiscal plan slips, the annulment case drags on and the Treasury postpones its auctions again

    • The position clear-out ends

      15%
      Trigger
      Position unwinding finishes within the first week and foreign buying returns

  • 25 October 2026 · Americas

    Central banks on hold in October are stacking tightening into December

    • December pile-up

      50%
      Trigger
      The Fed holds with dissents on 28 October, the ECB and the Bank of Japan keep the December door open, and energy prices stay high

    • Selective tightening

      35%
      Trigger
      The Fed hikes in December while the ECB holds because of French tension and weak growth

    • Energy eases, the pause extends

      15%
      Trigger
      TTF falls below 80 euros and US core PCE below 3%

  • 24 October 2026 · Europe

    The same oil shock reads differently on each side of the Atlantic

    • Divergence reaches the currency

      50%
      Trigger
      The Fed signals a December hike while the ECB avoids committing to December

    • Both banks tighten together

      30%
      Trigger
      Euro-area flash inflation for October rises and the ECB confirms a December hike

    • Demand cracks on both sides

      20%
      Trigger
      A tech sell-off and falling confidence cool US demand and the PMI price index retreats

  • 24 October 2026 · Eurasia

    Drones hitting refineries now set Russia's rate path

    • Capacity returns slowly, rate stays at 14%

      55%
      Trigger
      Strikes continue, repairs drag on for weeks and underlying inflation stays at 5–6%.

    • Capacity returns fast, easing resumes

      30%
      Trigger
      Ryazan and Syzran return to full capacity and fuel prices ease.

    • Supply shock embeds in expectations, rate rises

      15%
      Trigger
      Strikes intensify, the budget deficit widens and household inflation expectations climb.

  • 23 October 2026 · Europe

    France trades like the periphery, and its marginal buyer sits outside Europe

    • High premium, limited contagion

      55%
      Trigger
      Moody's cuts by one notch or holds, the budget process drags on, and the ECB stays on hold on 29 October while keeping a December hike open.

    • Contagion to the edge of the core

      30%
      Trigger
      A downgrade, a budget impasse and a signal of a December hike coincide; the French spread breaks 180 and Belgium's 120 basis points.

    • Political relief

      15%
      Trigger
      The revenue package passes, Moody's holds the rating and the ECB speaks forcefully about spreads.

  • 23 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Melting net reserves, not inflation, now set the pace of CBRT cuts

    • Reserves stabilise, cautious cuts continue

      55%
      Trigger
      Net reserves excluding swaps stabilise around 39 billion dollars and foreign selling stops.

    • Buffer thins, the cycle stalls

      30%
      Trigger
      Reserves keep melting for another two or three weeks, energy prices stay high and foreign outflows spread to bonds.

    • Disinflation accelerates

      15%
      Trigger
      October inflation falls markedly, carry inflows return and reserves climb past 44 billion dollars.

  • 22 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    A rate cut is coming, but Ankara's budget prices slow disinflation

    • Measured cut, slow path

      55%
      Trigger
      The CBRT cuts by 100 basis points on 22 October with cautious guidance; CDS stays in a 245–260 band.

    • Risk premium halts the cycle

      25%
      Trigger
      The fund law is delayed, reserve losses continue and CDS rises above 260.

    • Disinflation accelerates

      20%
      Trigger
      October and November CPI come in below expectations, CDS falls below 243.28 and reserves climb back above 171.6 billion dollars.

  • 22 October 2026 · Europe

    Britain's rate rise is settled, but the budget has no energy headroom

    • One rise, a cautious budget

      55%
      Trigger
      The BoE lifts Bank Rate to 4% on 5 November; the 28 October budget keeps energy support limited and targeted.

    • Fiscal loosening, a second rise

      30%
      Trigger
      The budget funds energy support with extra borrowing and October inflation exceeds 3.75%.

    • Growth cracks, the rise is deferred

      15%
      Trigger
      Budget tightening and weakening data push the committee to hold in November.

  • 21 October 2026 · Eurasia

    Russia's oil windfall is swallowed by payouts to its own refiners

    • The compensation spiral continues

      55%
      Trigger
      Strikes on refineries and pipelines continue at the same pace through October and November, and the damper stays above 300 billion roubles.

    • An energy ceasefire relieves the refiners

      25%
      Trigger
      Contacts in Oslo and St Petersburg produce an energy ceasefire covering refineries that holds for 30 days.

    • Oil prices retreat

      20%
      Trigger
      Flows through Hormuz normalise and Brent falls below 80 dollars.

  • 21 October 2026 · Americas

    The long end is doing the Fed's work, and housing breaks first

    • Market tightening is enough

      50%
      Trigger
      The Fed holds on 28 October, mortgage rates stay in a 7.2–7.6% band and the 10-year yield trades between 4.9% and 5.3%.

    • Inflation pushes the long end again

      30%
      Trigger
      Energy-driven inflation data beat expectations, the 30-year yield breaks 5.6% and mortgage rates rise above 7.6%.

    • A hard pass-through from housing to growth

      20%
      Trigger
      Employment and retail data also weaken and the 10-year yield falls below 4.8%.

  • 20 October 2026 · Europe

    Energy's second round shows up on the street, not in wages

    • Watered-down consolidation

      55%
      Trigger
      The French budget passes with concessions or under article 49.3, Moody's holds the rating or leaves the outlook unchanged, and the protests subside.

    • Street and rating together

      30%
      Trigger
      Moody's cuts the rating to A1 on 23 October, protests extend into another weekend and curfews arrive in Italy.

    • An oil retreat closes the gap

      15%
      Trigger
      An interim arrangement is reached at Hormuz and the December Brent contract settles durably below $100.

  • 18 October 2026 · Americas

    Interest is now the main engine of the US deficit

    • Gradual repricing

      55%
      Trigger
      The 10-year yield stays in a 4.8–5.36% range and the Fed hikes by 25 basis points in December.

    • Term premium spike

      25%
      Trigger
      The 30-year yield breaks 5.6%, Moody's downgrades France and energy prices hold above 110 dollars.

    • The rate floor recedes

      20%
      Trigger
      Brent falls below 100 dollars, the Fed defers its December hike and the 10-year yield drops below 4.8%.

  • 17 October 2026 · Americas

    Central banks pause in October as energy persistence decides December

    • Pause in October, synchronised hikes in December

      55%
      Trigger
      Euro area services inflation stays above 3.2% and Brent trades above 100 dollars.

    • Energy pass-through stalls and the cycle ends early

      25%
      Trigger
      Brent falls below 100 dollars, services inflation returns to 3.0% and employment weakens in the United States and Canada.

    • Second-round effects take hold and the cycle extends

      20%
      Trigger
      Brent settles above 110 dollars, wage settlements accelerate and a 3.00% ECB peak becomes the majority expectation.

  • 17 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    MSCI's freeze leaves Turkish rate cuts leaning on bond money

    • The freeze drags on, reform moves slowly

      55%
      Trigger
      CMB measures continue, the law slips to early 2027 and MSCI keeps the freeze until its 2027 review.

    • Early proof lifts the freeze

      25%
      Trigger
      Beneficial ownership disclosure and enforcement work quickly, and MSCI eases the freeze before June 2027.

    • A classification consultation opens

      20%
      Trigger
      A new fund case emerges, or insufficient progress is seen by June 2027.

  • 16 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Interest eats a sixth of Türkiye's revenue, binding the Treasury to rates

    • Measured cut, framework holds

      55%
      Trigger
      The CBRT cuts by 100 basis points on 22 October, foreign bond inflows continue and reserves hold flat.

    • Cautious hold

      25%
      Trigger
      The CBRT holds, or settles for 50 basis points, citing energy-price and currency risk.

    • Rapid easing, currency pressure

      20%
      Trigger
      The CBRT cuts by 150 basis points or more and carry money exits government bonds.

  • 16 October 2026 · Americas

    Inflation ran hot, Treasuries rallied, and credit markets now bind the Fed

    • The haven works, the Fed waits

      50%
      Trigger
      The credit spread stays within 300–360 basis points and the Fed holds on 28 October while keeping a December hike open.

    • Inflation takes the lead again

      30%
      Trigger
      The AI sell-off subsides, October CPI expectations rise and the odds of an October hike exceed 50%.

    • Credit strain spills into Treasuries

      20%
      Trigger
      The high-yield spread nears 400 basis points and leveraged funds begin unwinding Treasury positions under margin calls.

  • 14 October 2026 · Europe

    Central banks refuse to rescue, leaving the debt premium with treasuries

    • Contained term premium

      50%
      Trigger
      The French budget passes without a vote, US CPI comes in around 3.6%, and the Fed hikes for the last time in December.

    • France-driven stress

      30%
      Trigger
      The budget stalls or the government falls, the spread breaks above 152 basis points and periphery spreads widen.

    • Data soften, premium eases

      20%
      Trigger
      US core CPI stays below 2.5%, the Fed holds in December, and France reaches a quick compromise.

  • 13 October 2026 · Americas

    As the Fed tightens, Washington steps away from the debt table

    • A Fed moving in frequent steps, a strong dollar

      55%
      Trigger
      September CPI comes in around 3.6% and other Fed speakers back Hammack's framework.

    • Data soften, the Fed waits

      25%
      Trigger
      Headline and core CPI come in below consensus, and Warsh signals a wait until December.

    • The debt premium takes over

      20%
      Trigger
      The IMF hardens its debt warning, demand weakens at longer-dated US auctions and the inflation premium rises.

  • 11 October 2026 · Americas

    The White House uses sanctions to cap diesel, but rates won't budge

    • Products ease, the rate constraint stays

      50%
      Trigger
      Russian deliveries slip into November, 14 October CPI comes in around 3.7%, and EIA's diesel price stays above $6.

    • Product prices break expectations

      30%
      Trigger
      Tankers loaded with Russian diesel arrive in early November, EIA's diesel price drops below $6, and the Michigan 1-year expectation eases.

    • The licence collapses and prices rebound

      20%
      Trigger
      Russia extends its export ban or a legal challenge halts physical imports; product flows through Hormuz are cut again.

  • 11 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Ankara keeps currency losses off balance sheets as the FX gap widens

    • A quiet maturity extension

      55%
      Trigger
      USD/TRY rises gradually and stays below 50.50, the CBRT holds rates in October, and reserves move sideways.

    • The deferred loss surfaces

      30%
      Trigger
      USD/TRY breaks above 50.50, the short-term FX surplus turns into a deficit, and a large company or commercial-paper issuer misses a payment.

    • Currency stability becomes durable

      15%
      Trigger
      Brent eases, reserves recover, and companies' net FX short position falls below $195 billion.

  • 10 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Türkiye's current-account surplus reflects shrinking industry, and energy sends the bill

    • The bill eats the surplus

      50%
      Trigger
      Brent stays in a $100–115 range in the fourth quarter and September energy imports rise more than 30% year on year.

    • Oil retreats and the buffer breathes

      30%
      Trigger
      Middle East output losses ease faster than the EIA expects and Brent falls below $90.

    • Double shock

      20%
      Trigger
      Brent breaks above $120 while foreign outflows from lira derivatives and funds accelerate.

  • 10 October 2026 · Americas

    Real rates, not inflation, drive US yields higher and lift the dollar

    • The real-rate regime persists

      55%
      Trigger
      The 10-year real yield stays in a 2.8–3.0% range and breakeven in 2.3–2.4%; markets keep a December Fed hike priced.

    • Growth breaks the real rate

      25%
      Trigger
      October payrolls also disappoint, the Fed drops a December hike and the real yield falls below 2.6%.

    • The expectations anchor slips

      20%
      Trigger
      Breakeven rises above 2.5%, household expectations stay at 3.5% and deficit concerns show up at auctions.

  • 9 October 2026 · Europe

    Europe exempted defence from its debt rules, and the term premium pays

    • The rule bends, the premium sticks

      50%
      Trigger
      The Commission accepts defence and energy requests, no procedure is opened for Germany, and France's 54 billion euro budget passes, bypassing parliament if needed.

    • The market imposes discipline

      30%
      Trigger
      After a French budget vote or an Italian ratings decision, the spread breaks above 160 basis points and leveraged positions unwind.

    • The energy shock fades

      20%
      Trigger
      Brent falls durably below $90, euro area inflation drops back under 3% and the ECB stops at 2.75%.

  • 9 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Foreigners are quitting the lira, not Türkiye, and carry limits the cut

    • A cut without carry

      45%
      Trigger
      The MPC cuts by 100 basis points on 22 October and foreigners keep exiting lira bonds gradually.

    • Hold and repair carry

      35%
      Trigger
      The MPC holds at 37%, as Goldman expects, and lira bond flows stabilise in the 15 and 22 October data.

    • The currency channel breaks

      20%
      Trigger
      After a cut, lira bond outflows accelerate and spread to eurobonds, and USD/TRY breaks 50.50.

  • 8 October 2026 · Americas

    Foreign buyers are holding up the floor under global borrowing costs

    • A high but stable floor

      50%
      Trigger
      Foreign demand stays above 70% at auctions; pricing for a December Fed hike holds around 70% and the 10-year yield trades in a 5.15–5.45% band.

    • Foreign demand cracks at an auction

      30%
      Trigger
      The indirect share at a 3- or 30-year auction falls below 60%, the dealer share passes 15% and the 10-year yield breaks 5.45%.

    • Weak data pulls the floor lower

      20%
      Trigger
      October payrolls come in as weak as September's 29,000; the odds of a December hike fall below 40%.

  • 8 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Türkiye's Treasury is borrowing to pay interest that now exceeds principal

    • A cut arrives, costs ease slowly

      50%
      Trigger
      The 22 October MPC cuts the policy rate below 37%; the weekly decline in official gross reserves slows to less than 2 billion dollars.

    • The MPC holds, the interest burden rolls into November

      35%
      Trigger
      Reserve erosion continues in the 8 October and 15 October data, and pressure on USD/TRY pushes the MPC to stay at 37%.

    • Demand cracks, the risk premium widens

      15%
      Trigger
      The fund liquidation spreads to non-bank finance through a new bond default, and the US 10-year yield stays above 5.30%.

  • 7 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    The fund crisis is locking up non-bank credit, not the banks

    • Contagion stays within the Tera network and the cut comes

      50%
      Trigger
      No new MKK default notice comes from outside the Tera network, weekly issuance returns above 20 and gross reserves hold above 165 billion dollars.

    • The funding lock spreads across non-bank finance

      30%
      Trigger
      At least one factoring or leasing firm outside the Tera network appears in an MKK default notice, and weekly issuance stays below 13.

    • Reserves force a delay

      20%
      Trigger
      Data for 8 October and the following two weeks show gross reserves heading towards 160 billion dollars and foreign-currency deposits rising by more than 1 billion dollars a week.

  • 7 October 2026 · Americas

    AI has opened an inflation channel the Fed's rates cannot reach

    • Hold in October, December door open

      50%
      Trigger
      The minutes make further tightening conditional, September core CPI comes in near expectations, and on 27–28 October the Fed holds at 3.75–4.00%.

    • The chip channel reaches prices

      30%
      Trigger
      Computer and electronics items accelerate in the 14 October CPI, core goods inflation rises, and fourth-quarter DRAM prices exceed the 10–15% range.

    • Demand cools, the door closes

      20%
      Trigger
      Labour-market weakness deepens, AI investment plans are cut, and the 1-year yield falls below 4.00%.

  • 6 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Food pulled headline inflation down; reserves hold the key to rates

    • Modest cut, tight liquidity

      45%
      Trigger
      The CBRT cuts by 100 basis points on 22 October but keeps liquidity tight, and state bank support continues.

    • Rates on hold, reserves first

      35%
      Trigger
      The 8 and 15 October data show the drain running into a seventh and eighth week; the CBRT holds the rate at 37%.

    • Large cut, currency pressure

      20%
      Trigger
      The CBRT takes the headline decline at face value and cuts by 150 basis points or more.

  • 4 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Record exports leave reserves, not inflation, as the MPC's binding constraint

    • Deficit stays high, reserves erode slowly

      50%
      Trigger
      September CPI lands near expectations, Brent holds in a $100–105 band and weekly growth in FX deposits slows below $1 billion.

    • The reserve threshold comes under strain

      30%
      Trigger
      The energy bill pushes October's deficit above $6 billion, the fund compensation schedule slips and flight into FX deposits accelerates.

    • The external balance eases

      20%
      Trigger
      Brent drops below $95, the TMSF announces a payment schedule and foreign bond inflows return.

  • 3 October 2026 · Europe

    As buyers at the far end thin out, Britain shortens its borrowing

    • Waiting in a high band

      50%
      Trigger
      Energy prices stay flat, the 28 October budget keeps the fiscal rules intact and the DMO holds the extended-maturity share near 9.1%.

    • The buyer constraint deepens

      30%
      Trigger
      The budget fails to close the fiscal gap convincingly, or energy prices rise again and the US 30-year yield moves above 5.65%.

    • Energy eases and the far end recovers

      20%
      Trigger
      Brent futures fall, October inflation comes in below expectations and the 28 October budget lowers the borrowing requirement.

  • 2 October 2026 · South Asia

    One oil shock meets four different buffers across South Asia

    • Buffers stretch but hold

      50%
      Trigger
      Brent stays in the $95–105 band, Pakistan agrees with the IMF on targeted support through BISP, and the RBI moves by no more than 25 basis points on 7 October.

    • Oil above $105 strains the IMF line

      30%
      Trigger
      Congestion in the Strait of Hormuz persists and Brent settles above $105. Pakistan fails to settle the gas receivables and Sri Lanka extends its support.

    • Prices ease and subsidy pressure fades

      20%
      Trigger
      Gulf exports recover and Brent falls below $95; the RBI holds its rate at 5.25%.

  • 2 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    The CBRT eases with one hand while reserves drain from the other

    • Targeted easing, a currency held by reserves

      50%
      Trigger
      September consumer inflation comes in around 2.20%, interim payouts start smoothly and the weekly loss in net reserves excluding swaps stays below 3 billion dollars.

    • Easing leaks into foreign currency

      35%
      Trigger
      Lira released by interim payouts heads into foreign currency. Household FX deposits keep rising by more than 1 billion dollars a week, and net reserves excluding swaps fall below 35 billion dollars.

    • Confidence is repaired and reserves stabilise

      15%
      Trigger
      A payout timetable is announced for the 66 excluded funds as well, September inflation comes in below expectations and foreign bond outflows stop.

  • 1 October 2026 · Europe

    The energy shock cools in America and heats up in Europe

    • Divergence becomes entrenched

      50%
      Trigger
      Aggregate euro area September data also rise, US September data come in mild, and the Fed holds rates on 28 October.

    • Energy peaks

      30%
      Trigger
      The December Brent contract stays around or below 98.03 $, and the energy component slows in early October data.

    • French crisis spreads

      20%
      Trigger
      A confidence vote or the fall of the government comes onto the agenda before the 17 November vote, and the spread stays above 120 basis points.

  • 1 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Türkiye's fund crisis reaches the banks as the energy bill climbs

    • The crisis stays in equities

      50%
      Trigger
      No new institution is transferred to the TMSF, the board announces a payment timetable, and the 3 October CPI print comes in around the median expectation of 2.20%.

    • Both shocks meet at the reserves

      35%
      Trigger
      The investigation extends to new brokerage and factoring groups, Brent stays above 100 $, and the energy bill exceeds 6 billion $ in the September trade data.

    • Prices and timetable ease together

      15%
      Trigger
      The board begins payments faster than expected, and Brent falls below 97 $, shrinking the energy bill.

  • 30 September 2026 · Americas

    Energy shock enters its second round and central banks cannot look through

    • Broad tightening continues

      55%
      Trigger
      The 30 September PCE figure comes in close to the 3.7% expectation and the Fed raises by 25 basis points on 28 October. The BoE follows in November and the BoJ leaves its increase until December.

    • Stress at the far end of the curve

      25%
      Trigger
      PCE and employment data come in strong and the US 30-year yield moves durably above 5.57%. The BoJ raises for a 2nd consecutive time in October and the 2-year yield passes 2%.

    • Energy retreats

      20%
      Trigger
      Oil and diesel prices fall durably and PCE comes in soft. The probability of an October hike drops back below 55.4%.

  • 30 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    The board is in place but markets await a payment timetable

    • The timetable arrives and stress stays in equities

      55%
      Trigger
      Within a few weeks the Fund Coordination Board makes a payment announcement with a date and an amount. September CPI, due on 5 October, comes in within the 1.90–2.60% band.

    • Prolonged uncertainty

      35%
      Trigger
      No payment timetable is announced and the State Supervisory Council's examination opens new files. September CPI comes in close to or above the top forecast of 2.60%.

    • Contagion

      10%
      Trigger
      The problem spreads to banking or to private pension funds. The transfer of 3 finance companies creates a visible burden on the public balance sheet.

  • 29 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Turkish Treasury leans on floating rates for its heaviest redemption month

    • Rollover completed, cost shifts to floating

      55%
      Trigger
      October auctions cover the planned 409.1 billion lira, but demand concentrates in TLREF- and CPI-indexed paper.

    • Demand shrinks, public-sector weight grows

      30%
      Trigger
      The fund investigation widens with new waves, CDS exceeds 275 and foreign selling of government bonds accelerates.

    • Return to fixed rates

      15%
      Trigger
      Oil retreats, reserve losses stop and September inflation comes in below expectations.

  • 29 September 2026 · Americas

    Oil shock moves the safe haven from gold to the dollar

    • Tightening regime persists

      50%
      Trigger
      August PCE comes in above 3.7% year on year, Brent stays above 100 dollars and the probability of an October hike holds around 70%.

    • Data and diplomacy bring relief

      30%
      Trigger
      PCE comes in below expectations or a Hormuz negotiating timetable becomes clear, and the probability of an October hike falls below 50%.

    • Growth fears take over

      20%
      Trigger
      The 2 October jobs report shows sharp weakness or the equity sell-off deepens, with the VIX rising markedly.

  • 28 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Disinflation snags in October on tax, oil and the risk premium

    • Phased tax, continued reserve pressure

      50%
      Trigger
      The tax increase is phased in or partly passed through; Brent stays within a $100–110 band, and the fund investigation does not widen.

    • Full tax and a jump in the risk premium

      30%
      Trigger
      The tax is passed through in full, Brent breaks above $110, and the investigation reaches new institutions and brings new arrests.

    • Deferral and relief

      20%
      Trigger
      The ÖTV increase is deferred, Brent falls below $100, and the fund liquidation proceeds in an orderly way.

  • 26 September 2026 · Europe

    Energy shock reaches household expectations: German saving at 2008 peak, US inflation expectations at 4.6%; central banks can no longer look through it

    • Stagflationary tightening

      55%
      Trigger
      Energy prices stay high; the Fed hikes on 28 October, the ECB at the end of October and the BoE in November.

    • The demand brake extinguishes expectations

      30%
      Trigger
      Rising saving quickly cuts spending, energy prices fall back and inflation expectations reverse in the September–October surveys.

    • Winter shock and unanchored expectations

      15%
      Trigger
      Storage stays below 80% on 1 November, cold weather lifts TTF back above 81 euros/MWh, and long-term expectations exceed 3.5%.

  • 26 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Türkiye's risk premium comes from within: CDS passes 250 as an 18.3-billion-dollar fund liquidation and a MASAK probe test the intermediation chain

    • The governance premium becomes entrenched

      50%
      Trigger
      Liquidation proceeds slowly on the 6-month timetable and the EMİS probe widens, but no new fund closes.

    • Contagion

      25%
      Trigger
      Redemption restrictions emerge at other portfolio management companies or detentions extend to brokerages; the US 30-year yield stays above 5.5%.

    • Institutional assurance

      25%
      Trigger
      Liquidation payments start ahead of schedule, the CMB and MASAK make concrete statements on data integrity, and global yields fall back.

  • 25 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Global term premium reaches Türkiye: the 2-year yield tops the 37% policy rate as net reserves shed 6.4 billion dollars in a week

    • Controlled defence with tight liquidity

      50%
      Trigger
      US yields stay high and the Fed hikes on 28 October; the CBRT tightens funding without touching the policy rate and slows its use of reserves.

    • Global relief

      30%
      Trigger
      US auction demand recovers, the 10-year yield returns below 5% and Brent falls below 100 dollars.

    • Forced into a rate step

      20%
      Trigger
      The US 30-year yield exceeds 5.5%, net reserves fall below 50 billion dollars and dollar/lira passes 50.

  • 24 September 2026 · Americas

    Weak auctions on both shores on the same day: the US paid 5.033% on 5-year notes, Germany could not fill the Bobl; term premium or rate expectations?

    • Policy pricing concentrated in the belly

      50%
      Trigger
      The 24 September 7-year auction sees ordinary demand, the 30-year yield stays below 5.39% and the October hike probability hovers around 70%.

    • Term premium spreads to the far end

      30%
      Trigger
      The 7-year auction also tails and indirect bidding stays below 60%; the 30-year US yield breaks 5.39% and the German 30-year 4.00%.

    • Data cools, pricing retreats

      20%
      Trigger
      September core PCE and employment data come in below expectations, Brent falls below 100 dollars, and the October hike probability drops below 50%.

  • 23 September 2026 · Europe

    Risk premium moves to the core: CDS widened in all 14 of the 14 countries reporting on 21 September, and France overtook Italy

    • Synchronised tightening, premiums in a high band

      50%
      Trigger
      The Fed keeps the door open to further hikes and the ECB waits until December, but energy prices stay high.

    • Energy retreats, premiums narrow

      30%
      Trigger
      Brent settles clearly below 100 dollars, and the ECB gets markets to pull back their pricing of 3-4 hikes.

    • Break in the core

      20%
      Trigger
      The France-Germany spread exceeds 110 basis points and France's CDS passes 50; the ECB is caught between fragmentation risk and tightening.

  • 23 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    A balance sheet tied to the dollar system complies with sanctions: 51% FX public debt, a 210.8 billion dollar corporate gap and closed Iran routes

    • Quiet compliance, premium protected

      55%
      Trigger
      Türkiye maintains compliance on Iranian aviation, no new Turkish institution is added to the sanctions list and US–Iran contacts continue.

    • Sanctions extend to Turkish institutions

      25%
      Trigger
      The US Treasury lists additional Turkish companies or banks on grounds of Iran-linked payments, fuel or ground services.

    • Diplomacy produces a framework

      20%
      Trigger
      US–Iran talks reach a gradual framework on Hormuz, and an exemption or easing of aviation sanctions comes onto the agenda.

  • 22 September 2026 · Americas

    Latin America was repriced before it was refinanced: risk premiums widened together on 21 September

    • Uncertainty persists, premiums stay in a high band

      50%
      Trigger
      The supply-versus-demand argument inside the Fed is not settled, the Argentine review drags on and the USMCA round produces no concrete tariff reduction.

    • The calendar passes cleanly

      30%
      Trigger
      Argentina makes its 25 September payment and the review concludes positively, the 28 September Washington round yields a tariff reduction, and the Brazilian election produces a market-friendly fiscal framework.

    • The demand diagnosis wins

      20%
      Trigger
      US data confirm that inflation is coming from demand and the Fed shifts to a sharper, more front-loaded path.

  • 22 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Inside Türkiye's rising confidence index: spending is being pulled forward while the energy shock builds up at the producer

    • Pulling forward continues, the bill accumulates

      55%
      Trigger
      Traffic through Hormuz stays low, the cost of energy imports runs high and demand for durable goods keeps being pulled forward on price expectations.

    • The strait normalises

      30%
      Trigger
      Diplomacy advances, traffic through Hormuz approaches its pre-war level and the energy import premium recedes.

    • The global bloc move reaches Türkiye too

      15%
      Trigger
      Uncertainty over the dollar rate persists and the simultaneous widening of emerging market risk premiums feeds through to Türkiye as well.

  • 16 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Three central banks tighten in the same week: answering a supply shock with rates, and Türkiye's carry flows

    • Patient tightness

      55%
      Trigger
      The Fed hikes once more by year-end, the CBRT holds rates and oil stays above 100 dollars.

    • Energy relief

      25%
      Trigger
      Physical flows through Hormuz increase and oil falls markedly.

    • Carry unwind

      20%
      Trigger
      The yen strengthens on a Japanese rate hike, global leveraged positions unwind and a new oil shock hits.

VTechnology Geopolitics & AI

27 scenario sets

  • 6 November 2026 · South Asia

    Barred from buying chips, China rents compute, and India may be next

    • Contracts narrow the door

      50%
      Trigger
      While RASA waits in the Senate, Nvidia's requirement spreads through new contracts and European clouds demand extra verification for Chinese customers.

    • The rental market grows

      30%
      Trigger
      The change of control in Congress shelves RASA and the yardstick for Nvidia's requirement stays unclear.

    • Legislation shuts the door

      20%
      Trigger
      The Senate passes RASA and cloud access becomes subject to licensing.

  • 5 November 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    A supplier contract and a Taipei bill now squeeze China's AI compute

    • The private door hardens

      50%
      Trigger
      Nvidia keeps the 51% requirement, Taiwan's bill clears committee and the affiliates rule suspension is extended by notice to 10 January 2027.

    • Summit bargaining loosens the grip

      30%
      Trigger
      Reciprocal steps on compute access and rare earth licences are announced at the Shenzhen APEC summit on 18–19 November.

    • Procedural gap

      20%
      Trigger
      BIS publishes no notice by 10 November and the affiliates rule comes back into force automatically.

  • 3 November 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Beijing and Washington build new licensing gates around an unwritten truce

    • Last-minute extension, new gates stay open

      60%
      Trigger
      BIS and Beijing publish texts extending the suspensions by 9–10 November; Announcement No. 49 takes effect unchanged on 18 November.

    • Text gap and tit-for-tat

      25%
      Trigger
      The BIS text misses 9 November or Beijing does not renew its suspension; one side uses one of its new instruments for the first time.

    • Truce covers the instruments too

      15%
      Trigger
      Ahead of the Shenzhen talks, both sides announce a package suspending the new instruments or granting general licences.

  • 31 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    The rare earth bottleneck is a 16-fold price gap, not a deadline

    • A last-minute extension, the licence persists

      60%
      Trigger
      The BIS notice and the Beijing announcement are published by 9 and 10 November, and the April 2025 regime is unchanged.

    • A gap in the texts

      20%
      Trigger
      One side fails to produce its text in time and the affiliates rule or the October 2025 package briefly comes back into force.

    • Extension with selective easing

      20%
      Trigger
      Beijing announces a general licence or fast track ahead of the Shenzhen meeting.

  • 29 October 2026 · Americas

    Washington puts chip licences on the table in exchange for American fabs

    • Last-minute paperwork

      55%
      Trigger
      BIS publishes a notice extending the suspension to 10 January 2027 before 9 November, and Beijing extends the rare-earth suspension through a numbered announcement.

    • The rule snaps back

      30%
      Trigger
      The notice misses 10 November and the affiliates rule takes effect; Beijing does not extend the rare-earth suspension and leaves it in limbo.

    • A licensing package

      15%
      Trigger
      Before the January deadline the two sides bundle licence and investment swaps, and blanket authorisations return for Korean and Taiwanese fabs.

  • 27 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    AI chips are concentrating Asia's growth in a single line item

    • A constrained cycle that keeps running

      55%
      Trigger
      AI demand keeps broadening into ASICs and server processors, packaging prices rise only partially, and funding stays expensive but open.

    • The funding brake

      30%
      Trigger
      AI debt premiums keep climbing, and neocloud consolidation pushes orders out.

    • Capacity catches up

      15%
      Trigger
      CoWoS capacity closes on its target, equipment lead times shorten, and the price increase is shelved.

  • 24 October 2026 · Americas

    The truce covers tariffs as Washington turns to capital and components

    • Narrower final rule

      55%
      Trigger
      After the comment period the Treasury narrows the drug provisions, while biomanufacturing and sequencing stay covered.

    • Tit-for-tat tightening

      30%
      Trigger
      The final rule stays broad and Beijing narrows the licensing exemption in its biomedical export controls.

    • Suspension at APEC

      15%
      Trigger
      At the 18–19 November Shenzhen talks the truce is broadened and investment curbs are postponed.

  • 23 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    China's rare-earth lever reaches chip fab motors as capacity runs full

    • Quiet extension, slow substitution

      50%
      Trigger
      Beijing extends the truce on 10 November or keeps it in effect in practice.

    • Selective tightening

      35%
      Trigger
      The truce is not renewed, or licence approvals for the US and Taiwan slow down.

    • Comprehensive settlement

      15%
      Trigger
      The US–China truce text includes a general licensing clause covering the 7 heavy elements.

  • 22 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    AI's bottleneck shifts from export licences to concrete, steel and power

    • Physical constraints stay binding

      55%
      Trigger
      Nvidia's delivery rate stays at 5–10%, the TSMC halt lasts weeks and M3 capacity slips into FY2028.

    • Capacity catches up

      30%
      Trigger
      TSMC restarts steelwork in early November, Nvidia raises its production ceiling and Jemena finds an alternative route.

    • Policy constraint returns

      15%
      Trigger
      Washington brings workstation cards under licensing too, or Beijing restricts purchases by its large firms.

  • 20 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    AI memory's control layer is shifting from Korea to Taiwan

    • Concentration at TSMC

      55%
      Trigger
      SK hynix and Micron also give the NVHBM base die to TSMC's 3-nanometre process, and lines outside Taiwan do not come on stream in 2027.

    • Mixed sourcing

      30%
      Trigger
      Samsung becomes a second source at its own foundry, or a supplier wins Nvidia's approval with its own base die.

    • The timetable slips

      15%
      Trigger
      Capacity or cost pushes the NVHBM timetable back and Nvidia continues with standard HBM4E.

  • 17 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Export controls now cut both ways, from Beijing's models to Taipei's servers

    • The double lock becomes permanent

      50%
      Trigger
      China publishes the final text with minor changes after 15 November, and the Taiwanese bill reaches parliament.

    • Mutual escalation

      30%
      Trigger
      The US answers the Chinese draft with a new chip or model restriction, and truce bargaining locks onto this file.

    • Softening at the bargaining table

      20%
      Trigger
      Beijing raises the threshold or widens the cloud licence in exchange for the truce; Taiwan confines its scope to Huawei and SMIC.

  • 16 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    AI is swallowing memory, and phones and PCs are paying the bill

    • The divergence persists

      50%
      Trigger
      Cloud companies maintain capital spending guidance at the end of October and memory prices stay high.

    • Funding brake

      30%
      Trigger
      The 10-year US yield stays above 5.3%, the Fed hikes and at least one large cloud company cuts its capital spending guidance.

    • Memory eases

      20%
      Trigger
      Standard DRAM capacity grows faster than expected and Chinese memory supply flows into the consumer segment.

  • 14 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Korea's memory premium now prices in Chinese chip exports

    • Selling eases, volatility stays

      50%
      Trigger
      CXMT discloses no product specifications by year-end, and memory contract prices stay high.

    • Substitution reaches prices

      30%
      Trigger
      CXMT sample modules pass qualification at Chinese cloud customers, and October customs data show a marked slowdown in Korea's chip exports to China.

    • AI spending cycle breaks

      20%
      Trigger
      A Vera Rubin delay is confirmed and major cloud companies cut capex guidance.

  • 13 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    China-free supply holds in the contract, not in the sub-tiers

    • Undocumented extension, selective licensing

      55%
      Trigger
      No new MOFCOM notice appears on 10 November, or only a verbal extension; licences continue to be issued at different speeds depending on the buyer.

    • Formal extension, tension eases

      25%
      Trigger
      MOFCOM extends the suspension to 10 January or beyond with a new notice, and the scope of general licences widens.

    • Suspension lapses, controls return

      20%
      Trigger
      The suspension ends on 10 November and Beijing enforces the extraterritorial 0.1% rule or the gallium denial for the US.

  • 12 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Türkiye wanted China's cars but stops their software at defence gates

    • The gate rule spreads unwritten

      55%
      Trigger
      No written connected-vehicle standard appears by 31 March 2027, but at least one public body or critical infrastructure operator announces a similar entry restriction.

    • A written connected-vehicle standard

      30%
      Trigger
      The Cyber Security Directorate or the Defence Industry Agency publishes a written standard for critical sites covering cameras, location and over-the-air updates.

    • Easing in exchange for investment

      15%
      Trigger
      A Chinese manufacturer secures an exemption from the extra duty with a pledge to produce in Türkiye, and Chinese brands' monthly share climbs back above 10%.

  • 11 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Beijing rations rare earths through licence speed, not bans

    • The selective channel continues

      55%
      Trigger
      Licences to the EU speed up, heavy-element flows to Japan stay near zero, and US access is tied to the 10 January package.

    • The channel is generalised

      25%
      Trigger
      China grants the US general licences in the 10 January package and the suspension is extended by official notice.

    • Quiet tightening

      20%
      Trigger
      The suspension ends without notice on 10 November and China begins applying the broad package selectively.

  • 10 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    In AI hardware the binding constraint is packaging and optics, not chips

    • Targeted content requirement

      55%
      Trigger
      The FCC publishes a conditional curb aimed only at 3.2-terabit products and upstream components.

    • Deferral tied to the truce

      30%
      Trigger
      Washington holds the rule back as a bargaining chip while the November APEC summit and truce talks continue.

    • Broad import ban

      15%
      Trigger
      A rule covering all new Chinese-made optical transceiver models is published in the Federal Register.

  • 8 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Factory labour in Taiwan is the memory shortage's new bottleneck

    • Settlement, the shortage persists through prices

      55%
      Trigger
      Taoyuan mediation reaches a deal with a permanent performance component before the 19 October rally; the Taichung union does not move to strike after 22 October.

    • Brief supply disruption in Taiwan

      30%
      Trigger
      The Taoyuan union calls a time-limited walkout at short notice, or the 11,000-strong Taichung union joins a strike after 22 October.

    • Chinese supply breaks prices

      15%
      Trigger
      Chinese makers rapidly gain share in standard DRAM and the fourth-quarter contract price increase stays below 10%.

  • 7 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Truce defers tariffs, yet chip and rare-earth suspensions still expire in November

    • Formal extension at the eleventh hour

      55%
      Trigger
      BIS and China's Commerce Ministry publish notices before 9–10 November moving both suspensions to 10 January 2027.

    • Partial gap, selective use

      30%
      Trigger
      One side delays its notice. The Affiliates Rule or the rare-earth restriction operates again for a few weeks through selective licensing.

    • Both rules return together

      15%
      Trigger
      9–10 November passes without any notice; Beijing reimposes the October 2025 controls together with the 0.1% rule.

  • 4 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Chip controls hold at the sale, then fail at end-use checks

    • Patch upon patch

      50%
      Trigger
      By 10 January location verification has not become law, the remote access bill is stuck in the Senate and the BIS budget rises only in part.

    • Enforcement shifts to access

      30%
      Trigger
      The defence bill includes location verification, the remote access bill passes the Senate and BIS's overseas team grows to 65.

    • Controls become a bargaining chip

      20%
      Trigger
      In the January package Washington licenses more chip types, and the congressional bills stall over objections from the executive.

  • 29 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Beijing now has the final say on chip sales to China

    • Selective opening with quotas

      50%
      Trigger
      MIIT approves limited volumes of the RTX Pro 5500, and Washington imposes no licence requirement on the card.

    • Washington applies the brakes

      30%
      Trigger
      The US Commerce Department imposes a licence requirement on the card, or Congress attaches the chip bills to the defence bill.

    • Tied to the January package

      20%
      Trigger
      Chip access becomes a bargaining item alongside rare earths and tariffs in the 10 January truce negotiations.

  • 28 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    TSMC makes promises to Arizona as packaging capacity gathers in Taiwan

    • Diversification continues on paper

      55%
      Trigger
      Approvals arrive tranche by tranche, and Chiayi's third phase clears feasibility in 2027.

    • Washington mandates domestic packaging

      25%
      Trigger
      The 3 chip bills in the 2027 NDAA pass, adding an incentive or requirement for packaging inside the US.

    • Strait risk forces concentration to be priced

      20%
      Trigger
      The 10 January truce breaks down or a large-scale exercise takes place in the Taiwan Strait.

  • 27 September 2026 · Americas

    Diplomacy talks superintelligence, incidents happen at the guest login: a US–China incident channel that skips agents, supply chains and identity stays empty

    • The channel stays at the model layer

      55%
      Trigger
      The second round is held before November and points of contact are designated, but the 'SI incident' definition remains limited to frontier model capabilities.

    • The channel stays on paper

      25%
      Trigger
      China does not separately confirm the clauses, the second round is postponed and the 3 chip bills in Congress make it into the NDAA.

    • Scope widens to agent incidents

      20%
      Trigger
      At the second round, the incident definition is published in a form that includes agent-driven cross-border access and critical software supply-chain incidents.

  • 25 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    Xi–Trump summit ends with a two-month truce: decisions on chips, Taiwan and artificial intelligence deferred to 10 January

    • Muddling through with extensions

      55%
      Trigger
      No comprehensive package emerges by 10 January, and the truce is extended once more for a brief period.

    • January package

      25%
      Trigger
      The Shenzhen technical meeting and trade board talks result in tariff cuts and higher purchases before January.

    • Rupture in January

      20%
      Trigger
      The chip bills in Congress become law or the Taiwan package is released, and China activates the restrictions on 7 additional metals on 10 January.

  • 23 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    The bargaining table on the eve of the summit: 512 tonnes of magnets, unsold chips, a truce of 3 to 24 months and a postponed Taiwan package

    • Calendar summit

      55%
      Trigger
      The summit announces in principle that the truce will be extended, with the term and rare-earth conditions left to APEC in November; the AI notification channel is confirmed.

    • Gridlock

      25%
      Trigger
      The extension stalls over rare-earth commitments and the Russia sanctions law; the US tightens chip equipment controls.

    • Expanding swap

      20%
      Trigger
      The summit jointly announces a 6-month extension, additional rare-earth licences and agricultural and aircraft purchases; the Taiwan package is effectively frozen.

  • 18 September 2026 · South Asia

    Building a fab versus owning the chain: India's capacity, Taiwan's depth, Japan's demand data

    • Packaging runs ahead, the advanced node lags

      55%
      Trigger
      In India, nine ATMP/OSAT projects and plants such as CG Semi enlarge capacity; the Dholera and Longtan timetables do not change.

    • The timetable slips, incentives grow

      30%
      Trigger
      The end-2028 permit target at Longtan is missed, or payments under the 1.275 trillion rupee Semicon 2.0 programme are delayed.

    • Demand momentum breaks

      15%
      Trigger
      The growth in chip and chip equipment shipments continues the slide from 23.2% in July to 19.3% in August over the following months.

  • 15 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific

    The technology front before the summit: a model distillation accusation, China's memory breakthrough and phase-two chip tariffs

    • Truce extended, tech front hardens

      55%
      Trigger
      The truce is extended by one year at the summit; chip controls and distillation countermeasures continue.

    • Rupture

      25%
      Trigger
      The summit is cancelled or China responds to the distillation advisory with concrete countermeasures.

    • Broad détente

      20%
      Trigger
      Tariff cuts and approval for some chip sales are announced at the summit.

VIEnergy Politics & Supply Security

32 scenario sets

  • 6 November 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa

    Africa's fuel buffer rests on one refinery short of crude

    • Lekki stays at its ceiling on inventory

      50%
      Trigger
      The naira allocation holds at around 7 cargoes a month, the Gulf premium stays in the 6–10% band, and the refinery covers its crude gap from stocks and dollar-funded foreign purchases.

    • Inventory runs out and the gap moves into price

      30%
      Trigger
      Crude reaching the refinery falls below 618,000 barrels a day and utilisation drops below 100%.

    • The naira allocation and the premium ease

      20%
      Trigger
      NNPC and Dangote agree a naira allocation of at least 13 cargoes a month and the Gulf war-risk premium falls below 2%.

  • 6 November 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Türkiye's reserve buffer melts while the energy plan defers the bill to 2030

    • The buffer erodes slowly

      50%
      Trigger
      Front-month Brent stays in a 90–100 dollar band and foreign bond outflows fall below 500 million dollars a week.

    • The bill strains reserves

      30%
      Trigger
      January Brent breaks above 100 dollars and foreign DİBS selling continues above 500 million dollars a week.

    • Oil brings relief

      20%
      Trigger
      January Brent falls durably below 90 dollars and Gulf supply normalises.

  • 5 November 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    The Hormuz counter shows three ships as Gulf oil flows dark

    • The dark corridor persists

      50%
      Trigger
      Diplomacy continues but the blockade and the PGSA list stay in place; the AIS counter remains below 10 a day and exports hold in the 15–18 million barrels a day band.

    • Deal and gradual reopening

      30%
      Trigger
      The US and Iran reach an interim deal easing the blockade and sanctions; the PGSA list is suspended.

    • The list severs the transfer chain

      20%
      Trigger
      The PGSA lists foreign tankers conducting transfers and seizes one of them, or an attack takes place.

  • 4 November 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Oil futures are pricing peace while delivery costs still price war

    • Settlement delayed, buffer erodes

      55%
      Trigger
      Qatar's 36-hour window closes without result; the blockade and Iran's 7 conditions remain unresolved and attacks continue off Oman.

    • Interim deal, slow reopening

      30%
      Trigger
      The parties reach an interim deal on the Qatari proposal, the blockade is eased in stages and Hormuz reopens gradually.

    • New campaign after the elections

      15%
      Trigger
      The United States or Israel launches a new air campaign against Iran after 3 November.

  • 3 November 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    The Gulf's spare capacity sits in the well, and insurers hold the gate

    • Plan in limbo, gate stays shut

      55%
      Trigger
      The US does not respond to the two-day plan's conditions, and October's tempo of at least 30 incidents continues into November.

    • A deal, but cover lags

      30%
      Trigger
      The US and Iran agree on the Qatari plan and the strait opens to navigation, but the Joint War Committee keeps its listing for weeks.

    • Escalation via the Qeshm front

      15%
      Trigger
      Tit-for-tat US–Iran strikes spread beyond Qeshm, and the East–West pipeline or Red Sea facilities are hit again.

  • 31 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    The roll did not ease anything; scarcity moved into January Brent

    • Scarcity stays in the front month

      50%
      Trigger
      Iran gives a partial answer, the decision slips past 3 November and OPEC+ holds its targets on 1 November.

    • Strike and Gulf retaliation

      35%
      Trigger
      A US strike begins after 3 November, or limpet and Houthi attacks produce confirmed damage at a facility.

    • The Qatari formula erases the premium

      15%
      Trigger
      A formula is found on the sequencing of the blockade and the nuclear file, and an opening timetable for Hormuz is discussed.

  • 30 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    State fleets now carry the Gulf oil that insurers will not

    • State fleets keep carrying supply

      55%
      Trigger
      The mine claims go unverified or losses stay limited, any strike decision is deferred beyond 3 November and the premium stays in the 6–10% band.

    • The mine line hits the dark fleet

      30%
      Trigger
      The four-tanker mine claim is independently confirmed, a fresh sinking hits the fleet, or operations begin after 3 November.

    • The cover door reopens

      15%
      Trigger
      Iran answers the Qatari draft positively, the Vance channel returns to talks and the JWC begins narrowing its list.

  • 29 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    As December Brent expires, scarcity stays at the front of the curve

    • Scarcity stays on the curve

      50%
      Trigger
      A strike decision slips past 3 November, Iran comes back to Qatar with a counter-proposal and Gulf refineries stay off the target list.

    • Retaliation reaches refineries

      30%
      Trigger
      Strikes begin after 3 November and Iran or the Houthis target Saudi or other Gulf refineries.

    • A nuclear formula erases the premium

      20%
      Trigger
      Iran admits UN inspectors, sanctions relief comes onto the table and the strike plan is shelved.

  • 28 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    The Saudi recovery is wearing thin at Ras Tanura's berths

    • Loadings hold, the premium stays

      50%
      Trigger
      The Ras Tanura fire stays outside the facility and US-escorted Hormuz transits continue.

    • The Gulf leg contracts

      30%
      Trigger
      October data show Ras Tanura loadings below 2 million barrels a day, or a US operation begins after 3 November.

    • Diplomatic easing

      20%
      Trigger
      Iran accepts the Qatari draft this week and agreement emerges on the Hormuz transit regime.

  • 27 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Riyadh shifts supply assurance from the pipeline to the customer's storage

    • The bypass holds, the storage strategy crawls

      50%
      Trigger
      Houthi claims continue but the line keeps flowing above 5 million barrels a day; the Singapore talks finish within a few months.

    • Confirmed damage at the pumping stations

      30%
      Trigger
      One or more pumping stations go out of service, flows fall below 3 million barrels a day and the outage runs beyond 1 week.

    • The Tehran channel thins out the attacks

      20%
      Trigger
      The Mecca pact talks move to a second round and the tempo of Houthi attacks falls markedly.

  • 25 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Iran's winter gas gap puts the Tabriz–Ankara pipeline first in line

    • Partial cuts in the cold

      50%
      Trigger
      In the first cold snap Iran curbs industrial and export gas, and flow on the Türkiye pipeline drops for days or weeks.

    • An uninterrupted winter

      30%
      Trigger
      The winter is mild, and the savings scheme and repairs close the gap.

    • Flows halted for weeks

      20%
      Trigger
      New strikes hit South Pars again, or a harsh winter pushes Iran to halt exports altogether.

  • 24 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Yanbu's loading jetty, not the pipeline, limits the Saudi bypass

    • Yanbu stays congested

      50%
      Trigger
      Houthi attacks continue but most are intercepted; repairs and insurance cap the loading pace.

    • A hit at Yanbu

      30%
      Trigger
      A missile or drone halts loading or storage at Yanbu for days.

    • The bypass recovers

      20%
      Trigger
      Repairs are completed, attacks cause no disruption at the port, or a ceasefire takes hold on the Houthi front.

  • 23 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Iran's floating oil is gone, leaving the risk with its neighbours

    • Asymmetry persists, risk migrates to neighbours

      50%
      Trigger
      The blockade holds, Iran makes no loadings, and Houthi and Revolutionary Guards attacks or claims keep targeting Saudi and Gulf infrastructure.

    • Short post-election strike round

      30%
      Trigger
      After 3 November the US and Israel launch an operation lasting several days, and Iran retaliates against Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping.

    • Mediation eases the blockade

      20%
      Trigger
      The Pakistani or Qatari channel makes progress before 3 November, the US partly eases the blockade and Iranian loadings resume.

  • 22 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Gulf crude is flowing, but Europe's diesel gap stays open

    • Crude flows, diesel stays tight

      55%
      Trigger
      Gulf crude keeps flowing around the strait, attacks do not halt crude loadings and European diesel holds near $200.

    • Attacks cut crude supply

      25%
      Trigger
      An attack on Shaybah, Ras Tanura or Yanbu gets through the defences and output or loadings stop.

    • The strait reopens

      20%
      Trigger
      A deal is reached with the US on Iran's 7-day plan and daily transits exceed 20.

  • 21 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Asia refuses to lock in 2027 oil, pushing supply security into spot

    • A spot-heavy year

      55%
      Trigger
      2027 term contracts are signed late or at low volumes at the end of October, and Hormuz transits stay below 20 a day.

    • A term-contract compromise

      30%
      Trigger
      Aramco counts 2026 spot purchases towards term volumes and Asian buyers keep their 2027 volumes.

    • The strait reopens

      15%
      Trigger
      Pakistani and Qatari mediation eases the blockade and lifts daily transits above 20.

  • 20 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Gazprom's Turkish contracts expire in 72 days, and Moscow holds the cards

    • Last-minute brief extension

      55%
      Trigger
      BOTAŞ signs a 1-year extension in December, volume stays in the 20–22 billion cubic metre range and the price formula is not disclosed.

    • Delay and a spot LNG bill

      25%
      Trigger
      Talks slip into January; Gazprom agrees to interim flows but BOTAŞ covers the shortfall with spot LNG.

    • Multi-year package

      20%
      Trigger
      BOTAŞ signs a multi-year contract with Gazprom, Novatek LNG is folded into the package and a price discount is announced.

  • 20 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Hormuz becomes a selective filter as Iranian exports hit zero

    • The selective filter persists

      55%
      Trigger
      The blockade continues and the PGSA widens its list, but passage stays open for Iraqi and Kuwaiti cargoes.

    • The filter tightens on neighbours

      30%
      Trigger
      The list extends to tankers carrying Iraqi and Kuwaiti cargoes, or the IRGC seizes a listed ship.

    • Mediation loosens the grip

      15%
      Trigger
      The Pakistani or Qatari channel results in the blockade being suspended, and Iran implements its seven-day reopening plan.

  • 18 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Crude is flowing again, but the fuel ships burn is not

    • Crude recovers, fuel stays tight

      50%
      Trigger
      Hormuz crude flows hold at 65–80% of normal, the Gulf fuel oil gap persists at 600,000 to 1 million tonnes a month and strikes on Russian refineries continue.

    • The attack zone widens

      30%
      Trigger
      Attacks in the loading waters of the northern Gulf become weekly, or the loss of a supertanker is independently confirmed.

    • Substitutes close the gap

      20%
      Trigger
      Asian refiners switch back to crude, while low-sulphur fuel from Dangote and China and LNG bunkering meet part of the demand.

  • 18 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Russian diesel ties Ankara's fuel security to a Washington–Moscow bargain

    • Diesel flows, the bill stays high

      50%
      Trigger
      The US–Russia diesel deal and the Graham waiver hold, and Ukrainian strikes stay intermittent.

    • Russia's export link breaks

      30%
      Trigger
      Strikes spread to Baltic and Black Sea terminals, and Russian diesel exports contract markedly.

    • Washington withdraws the waiver

      20%
      Trigger
      Congressional pressure or collapsing peace talks lead to the waiver being partly lifted.

  • 17 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Tehran puts a political price on Hormuz, and oil futures price scarcity

    • Conditional passage persists

      55%
      Trigger
      Iran keeps its coordination condition, escorted transits continue, Hormuz flows stay within 60–75% of normal and attacks on Yanbu are repelled.

    • Both outlets narrow at once

      25%
      Trigger
      Iran steps up attacks on uncoordinated transits and the Yanbu terminal or its storage takes a hit.

    • An interim arrangement emerges

      20%
      Trigger
      The Iran–Oman corridor comes into operation, or the US and Iran agree an interim arrangement trading blockade and sanctions relief for passage.

  • 16 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Oil is flowing again, but the binding constraint is now stocks

    • Flows hold, the buffer melts

      55%
      Trigger
      Gulf crude exports stay in a 13–15 million barrel band, the remaining emergency stock is released by year-end and product exports recover slowly.

    • The corridor breaks

      30%
      Trigger
      Attacks on transfer and anchorage areas in the Gulf of Oman intensify or a mine threat is confirmed, and Hormuz transits fall below 20 a day.

    • Stocks begin to rebuild

      15%
      Trigger
      Attacks subside, Gulf product exports rise above 3 million barrels a day and observed stocks begin to build.

  • 14 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Saudi supply is back, but the backup outlet sits within missile range

    • Fragile recovery holds

      50%
      Trigger
      Houthi attacks stay limited to administrative and civilian targets, and the East-West line runs in a 5.8–7 million barrel band.

    • Export infrastructure hit

      30%
      Trigger
      An East-West pumping station, Yanbu or an east-coast terminal is hit.

    • Tension eases

      20%
      Trigger
      The Houthi–Saudi front pauses and a US–Iran transit arrangement advances.

  • 13 October 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    Half-empty pipelines and a swelling bill keep Türkiye in Riyadh

    • A Gulf tie at a high price

      55%
      Trigger
      Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure continue, Brent holds in a 100–115 dollar band and the Mecca agreement reaches parliament in October.

    • Tension eases, prices retreat

      30%
      Trigger
      Riyadh airport reopens on 17 October, no new attack follows and Brent falls below 100 dollars.

    • Gulf supply is disrupted

      15%
      Trigger
      Attacks spread to Saudi energy facilities and exports are effectively disrupted.

  • 12 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Empty tankers are turning away from Fujairah, the Gulf's last buffer

    • The buffer erodes, flows stay tight

      50%
      Trigger
      VLCC arrivals at Fujairah stay partial, Gulf crude exports hold in a 10–12 million barrel a day band and reserve releases continue.

    • The transfer node breaks

      30%
      Trigger
      New strikes off Fujairah and Oman drive large vessels out of the area entirely, or the East-West pipeline is hit again.

    • A transit arrangement

      20%
      Trigger
      The US and Iran announce a transit arrangement and direct passages through Hormuz increase.

  • 12 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Oil's binding constraint is now ships, not barrels

    • Ship scarcity becomes entrenched

      50%
      Trigger
      The transshipment system persists, UKMTO's weekly transit count stays below 300 and VLCC hire holds above $1 million a day.

    • The transfer zone becomes a target

      30%
      Trigger
      Strikes on tankers continue in the Gulf of Oman transfer zone and off Fujairah, and owners pull their ships out of the area.

    • Direct passage resumes

      20%
      Trigger
      A transit arrangement between the US and Iran is announced and UKMTO's weekly count exceeds 500 transits.

  • 11 October 2026 · Eurasia

    Russian diesel has its licence; refineries and terminals remain the bottleneck

    • A token flow

      50%
      Trigger
      The first 500,000 tonnes go out piecemeal by mid-November; terminal strikes continue but Moscow does not tighten the ban again.

    • Strikes cut the flow

      30%
      Trigger
      Ukraine steps up strikes on product terminals and refineries, a new domestic shortage emerges in Russia, and the government extends the ban again on 31 October.

    • A return at scale

      20%
      Trigger
      Another 500,000 tonnes go out in November, the 1 million-tonne tranche starts in December, and refinery repairs outpace the strikes.

  • 10 October 2026 · Eurasia

    Four-fifths of Kazakhstan's oil hangs on one terminal in a war zone

    • Intermittent continuity

      55%
      Trigger
      The CPC terminal keeps operating with occasional stoppages lasting hours or a few days, as in July and September.

    • Prolonged outage

      25%
      Trigger
      An attack-related stoppage at the terminal lasts more than two weeks.

    • The corridor calms

      20%
      Trigger
      A moratorium on civilian shipping in the Black Sea is initialled, or the CPC is in practice kept off target lists.

  • 9 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Iranian oil hinges on reservoirs and tankers, not on a peace deal

    • Prolonged blockade, output locked to home demand

      55%
      Trigger
      No deal before 3 November; the blockade and sanctions stay, and Iranian loadings remain at zero.

    • Deal, slow Iranian return

      30%
      Trigger
      US–Iran talks end in an easing of the blockade and the reopening of Hormuz.

    • Escalation targets the bypass terminals

      15%
      Trigger
      Attacks on Fujairah or Red Sea terminals cut bypass flows.

  • 8 October 2026 · Americas

    Oil's inventory cushion has worn thin, so shocks now hit prices directly

    • The cushion thins, prices stay shock-sensitive

      55%
      Trigger
      The IEA sells the remaining 100 million barrels within a few weeks, EIA weekly distillate stocks hold around 105 million barrels, and Isaias passes with only brief refinery outages.

    • A second shock hits the cushion

      25%
      Trigger
      Isaias shuts at least one of the six Gulf Coast refineries for weeks, or a pipeline or terminal strike in the Gulf is confirmed.

    • Flows refill the stocks

      20%
      Trigger
      Gulf exports settle at pre-war levels, the EIA's November report cuts the fourth-quarter draw to zero and US distillate stocks rise for three straight weeks.

  • 7 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    The Gulf's oil buffer has filled, but on a single pipeline

    • The single point holds and the premium settles

      55%
      Trigger
      The East-West line flows above 5 million barrels and no new hit is verified; the Hormuz share stays near 60% and Bab el-Mandeb transits within 30–40.

    • The single point breaks

      25%
      Trigger
      A verified hit on one of the pumping stations, the Yanbu terminal or the Rabigh refinery; Houthi fire concentrates on the Red Sea coast.

    • Outlets multiply

      20%
      Trigger
      The Bab el-Mandeb coast verifiably changes hands and transits exceed 60; the Hormuz share returns above 70%.

  • 6 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Oil's squeeze moves from crude to products, and the Mediterranean pays

    • Crude plentiful, products scarce

      55%
      Trigger
      Gulf crude exports stay above 90%, product exports remain below 70%, and the Russian diesel ban is extended into November.

    • A second shock with no buffer

      25%
      Trigger
      A confirmed disruption on the East-West line, at Yanbu or at Bab el-Mandeb; Hormuz attacks cut flows again.

    • Product flows recover

      20%
      Trigger
      Russia lifts its diesel ban on 31 October, Gulf refined product exports exceed 80% and the Yanbu line returns to 5.5 million barrels.

  • 4 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    The blockade reroutes oil, and the constraint moves into insurance policies

    • Redistribution continues

      55%
      Trigger
      Iran again fails to load in October, regional exports stay above 17 million barrels a day and Houthi attacks cause no facility outages.

    • The constraint turns physical again

      30%
      Trigger
      Iran steps up tanker attacks in the strait, or a production outage at Aramco facilities is confirmed.

    • A deal and a partial reopening

      15%
      Trigger
      Washington and Tehran announce an easing of the blockade or a transit arrangement.

VIIReinsurance & Specialty Risk

6 scenario sets

  • 6 November 2026 · Americas

    Cat bond spreads are tightening, and interest rates are holding up coupons

    • A rate-supported glut

      55%
      Trigger
      Money market yields stay around 4% and the Plenum spread moves sideways in a 4–4.5% range.

    • Rate cuts widen spreads

      30%
      Trigger
      Money market yields fall below 3.5% in the first half of 2027 and December's widening continues into January.

    • Loss shock

      15%
      Trigger
      A major catastrophe or war loss in the fourth quarter produces losses above expected loss.

  • 5 November 2026 · Americas

    Reinsurance savings reach property cover but stop short of casualty

    • A divergent softening

      55%
      Trigger
      Property catastrophe prices fall by double digits on 1 January 2027, while US casualty excess-of-loss renews flat or more expensive.

    • Softening across the board

      25%
      Trigger
      Alternative capital and sidecars enter casualty, and broker reports show casualty reductions larger than 5%.

    • A loss shock returns

      20%
      Trigger
      A single catastrophe above $10 billion or a large war loss hits balance sheets in the fourth quarter, ahead of renewals.

  • 4 November 2026 · Europe

    High rates are not shrinking reinsurance but shifting risk to trade credit

    • The two-speed market persists

      55%
      Trigger
      Rates stay in a 4–5% band, property catastrophe prices fall at 1 January and credit insurers keep cutting limits

    • A rate shock turns the cushion into a brake

      25%
      Trigger
      The US 10-year yield breaks above 5.25% and mark-to-market losses on bond portfolios erode reinsurer capital

    • Easing defuses credit risk

      20%
      Trigger
      The 1-year yield falls below 3.75% and insolvency forecasts are revised down

  • 3 November 2026 · Middle East and North Africa

    Cheap reinsurance stops at the quay as war premiums enter the barrel

    • War premium holds at its floor

      55%
      Trigger
      Attacks continue at a lower rate, marine war reinsurance renews with increases in January and the Hormuz premium settles in the 3–6% band

    • A new wave of losses narrows the gate

      25%
      Trigger
      A new mass sinking or port attack occurs, reinsurers cut limits in the war line and the premium exceeds 10%

    • Safe passage erodes the premium

      20%
      Trigger
      A durable ceasefire or an escorted convoy system is established and daily transits exceed 60

  • 31 October 2026 · Europe

    Reinsurance capital is plentiful, but unmodellable risk waits at the state's door

    • The divergence holds

      55%
      Trigger
      No major catastrophe before the first quarter of 2027, issuance passes 20 billion dollars, non-catastrophe issuance stays small

    • Private capital moves into the tail

      25%
      Trigger
      A new cyber bond or war sidecar is established, and 1 billion dollars of non-catastrophe issuance appears before 31 March 2027

    • A shock makes the state unavoidable

      20%
      Trigger
      A systemic cyber event, a fresh wave of Gulf losses or a major late-season catastrophe pulls private capacity back

  • 30 October 2026 · Europe

    January renewals get cheaper, but war cover hits its own ceiling

    • Two-speed renewal

      55%
      Trigger
      No major catastrophe before end-December; Middle East losses continue through the second half and feed into January treaties

    • Softening spreads to the war line

      25%
      Trigger
      A ceasefire holds and new Lloyd's syndicates and consortia open capacity for the Middle East

    • A late shock hardens the market

      20%
      Trigger
      A major catastrophe or capital-market volatility in November–December strains reinsurer balance sheets