Multipolar View
Summaries of analysis published by non-Western institutions. Each summary links to the original publication, states the institution's relationship with the state and notes the blind spot of the reading separately. Summaries convey the institution's view, not that of Talay Insight.
IGeo-Economics & Chokepoints
Observer Research Foundation (ORF Expert Speak)IndiaEnglish
ORF: India lost the Maldives port but kept its leverage in credit
In a piece published on 5 November, Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy of ORF's Strategic Studies Programme traces the story of the Thilafushi port near Malé. The project was awarded to DP World in 2015, then moved to Gulhifalhu in 2018 on the back of an 800 million dollar Indian line of credit. At the end of 2023 President Muizzu shifted it back to Thilafushi and cut India out. China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) won the first phase in 2026.
6 November 2026 · South Asia
Valdai Discussion ClubRussiaEnglish· state-affiliated
Valdai sees Central Asia's distance from sea lanes as its safeguard
In a piece published on 2 November, Timofei Bordachev, programme director at Valdai and professor at HSE, reads the 35th anniversary of the former Soviet republics' independence through Central Asia. In his view the region sits at the geographic centre of Greater Eurasia, but that does not make it a geopolitical centre. Bordachev describes this peripheral position not as a weakness but as a security advantage resting on 3 factors.
6 November 2026 · Eurasia
Middle East Council on Global AffairsQatarEnglish
ME Council: India diversified its suppliers but not its routes
On 3 November the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs published an unsigned situation assessment of India's exposure to the Gulf. According to the report, India's goods trade with the Gulf came to about 207.8 billion dollars in fiscal 2025-26. That is 17.1% of total trade; one in every five dollars of imports goes to the region. Before the war, about half of India's crude and about 90% of its LPG imports passed through Hormuz.
3 November 2026 · South Asia
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Today)South AfricaEnglish
ISS urges Africa to shape high seas treaty rules at COP1
The ISS piece of 29 October focuses on the first conference of the parties to the BBNJ Agreement, which governs marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction. This high seas treaty covers roughly two-thirds of the ocean. It passed the 60-ratification threshold and entered into force on 17 January; COP1 meets in New York on 11–22 January 2027. The authors argue that early procedural decisions, such as the secretariat, subsidiary bodies and funding rules, tend to stick. They cite Africa's rejection of an opaque process at the 1999 WTO ministerial in Seattle as a precedent.
29 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Observer Research Foundation (ORF Expert Speak)IndiaEnglish
ORF argues India should bring Africa farming capacity, not food aid
The ORF piece of 29 October argues that the US–Iran and Russia–Ukraine wars have caused supply shocks in food, fertiliser and energy, and that Africa has been hit hardest. According to the author, cereal yields in Africa average 1.7 tonnes per hectare, less than half the world average of 4.2 tonnes (2024). The number of Africans facing hunger has risen from 171 million in 2010 to about 309 million. The continent produces less than 4% of global carbon dioxide emissions, yet it is warming faster than the world average.
29 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
The FederalIndiaEnglish
Former customs chief says the White House transshipment charge unfairly targets India
Najib Shah is the retired chairman of India's Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC). Writing in The Federal on 28 October, he takes aim at the White House report on the 'Great Transshipment Scam' published in August 2026. The report links 40 countries to the risk of illegal transshipment and places India in the riskiest tier 1. It estimates US tariff losses at between 40 and 303 billion dollars. It also claims that 67 billion dollars of goods were routed through India, Mexico and Vietnam, costing 28 billion dollars in tariffs. Shah notes that these figures are not broken down by country.
28 October 2026 · South Asia
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Today)South AfricaEnglish
ISS warns that criminalising artisanal miners hands Africa's mines to crime networks
The ISS piece of 28 October opens with the deaths of 37 young people and children in September 2026 in the custody of the NSCDC civil defence corps in Minna, in Nigeria's Niger State. They had been arrested as illegal miners in raids by the Mining Marshals, a special NSCDC unit. An investigative panel found that the deaths were caused by suffocation in inhumane conditions and were preventable. The authors place the case within a wider pattern of violence by security forces against miners, including extrajudicial killings, in Cameroon, the DRC and the Central African Republic.
28 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Observer Research Foundation (ORF)IndiaEnglish
Renewing the Ganges water treaty will test India–Bangladesh ties, says ORF
Writing on 23 October, Sohini Bose of New Delhi-based ORF points out that the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, signed by India and Bangladesh in 1996 for 30 years, expires in 2026. The two countries share 54 transboundary rivers. During the lean season, from 11 March to 10 May, the treaty guarantees Bangladesh 35,000 cusecs (cubic feet per second) in 3 alternating 10-day periods. If flow at Farakka falls below 50,000 cusecs, emergency consultations are triggered.
23 October 2026 · South Asia
Global Times (commentary)ChinaEnglish· state-affiliated
Beijing's state paper says Washington sells India partnership and demands concessions
In an unsigned commentary published on 18 October, Global Times, part of the People's Daily group that serves as the Chinese Communist Party's mouthpiece, reads the US–India trade impasse as a case study in how Washington treats its partners. By the paper's account, the trade framework reached in February remains unsigned 9 months on. India's finance minister has said the talks are stuck, and the US Trade Representative that no announcement is imminent. The piece appeared just before Rubio's 2nd visit to India this year, and argues that Washington wants to talk strategic partnership while New Delhi wants to talk tariffs.
21 October 2026 · South Asia
South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)South AfricaEnglish
From Johannesburg, Washington swaps African aid for minerals and data
In a piece published on 20 October, Ava Brazell and Bennett Reddig of SAIIA's African Governance and Diplomacy programme argue that the Trump administration is replacing aid to Africa with deals that trade market access for minerals, data and political alignment. By the authors' count, $17.3 billion of US aid was committed to sub-Saharan Africa in 2024 and about $16 billion actually disbursed; commitments for 2026 stand at roughly $1.3 billion so far. In June 2026 the administration announced it would end PEPFAR funding for HIV programmes in South Africa, though unlike the abrupt closure of USAID the programme is being wound down in stages. The authors note that Britain and some EU states also cut aid in 2026, but set the US apart for the speed of its retreat and for openly trading aid for commercial deals.
21 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Dawn (editorial)PakistanEnglish
Seen from Karachi, severed Kabul trade is paid for by border traders
In an editorial dated 20 October 2026, the Karachi-based Dawn takes stock of the first year of Islamabad cutting commercial ties with Kabul on security grounds. By the paper's account, trade between the two countries collapsed by more than 72%, from $1.3 billion in fiscal 2025 to $358 million in fiscal 2026. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa carries the heaviest cost. A province that already struggles to attract investment because of terrorism has lost an established market. That market rested on traders moving food, cement and medicine, and on the health tourism and hotel business serving Afghan visitors. Farmers and factories in Punjab and Sindh have been hit as well.
20 October 2026 · South Asia
Gulf Research Center (GRC)Saudi Arabia (Jeddah)English
From Jeddah, US–China rivalry over African minerals opens a door for Gulf capital
In a commentary published by the Gulf Research Center on 15 October, Michael William Wilson argues that competition for Africa's critical minerals has entered a new phase. By his account, China processes roughly 70% of critical minerals and produces 80% of lithium-ion batteries. It has invested more than 24 billion dollars in its African mining strategy since 2000. Washington, for its part, has signed more than 160 deals worth 40 billion dollars since January 2025. In February 2026 it set up Project Vault, a 12-billion-dollar strategic minerals reserve.
15 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Valdai Discussion ClubRussia (South Korean author)English· state-affiliated
Seen from Moscow, sanctions block the Northern Sea Route more than ice
In a piece published by the Valdai Club on 15 October, Kim Seung Rae of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies examines South Korea's 2026 pilot voyage on the Northern Sea Route. The 2,758 TEU Panstar Acro left Busan on 22 August and crossed the Arctic between 31 August and 9 September. It called at Felixstowe, Rotterdam and Gdańsk before returning to Busan on 5 October. The ship carried only 737 TEU of actual cargo; utilisation stood at 30% and the initial target of 1,300 TEU was missed. According to the author, shippers were deterred by freezing, insurance delays after iceberg strikes and weather uncertainty.
15 October 2026 · Eurasia
IMANI Centre for Policy and EducationGhanaEnglish
Seen from Accra, BRICS membership will not end Ghana's external dependence
Writing for Accra-based IMANI on 9 October 2026, Sitsofe John Mensah treats Ghana's exploration of BRICS membership as a significant strategic turn. In his view the interest reflects fatigue with the conditionality of the Bretton Woods institutions and with dollar dominance. Financing from the New Development Bank that carries no domestic-policy conditions is attractive, as is the chance to reduce reliance on the dollar in bilateral trade. Mensah argues, however, that membership alone will not cure economic dependence; it may simply change the address of the creditor and the supplier.
10 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL/ECLAC)Latin America and CaribbeanSpanish, English· state-affiliated
From Santiago, Latin America should shape the new order, not react to it
Santiago-based ECLAC presented its position paper, Managing Transformations in an Age of Disruption, at its 41st session, held in the Dominican Republic on 7–9 October 2026. Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs introduced the document on 7 October. Its central claim is that the region's assets will not turn into development on their own in the new geopolitical and geo-economic setting. Those assets include natural resources, productive capacity and a market of more than 600 million people. ECLAC argues that most countries are caught in 3 traps: low growth and weak capacity to transform, high inequality with low social mobility, and weak institutions with ineffective governance.
7 October 2026 · Americas
ISIS Malaysia (Institute of Strategic and International Studies)MalaysiaEnglish
From Kuala Lumpur, US–China stability is Southeast Asia's most valuable insurance
Thomas Daniel, director of foreign policy and security studies at ISIS Malaysia, takes Xi Jinping's September visit to Washington as his starting point. The piece first appeared in Asian Dispatch on 1 October 2026 and was republished by the institute on 5 October. In Daniel's view the visit went smoothly but was heavy on symbolism and light on substance. The two sides extended their trade truce by two months and pledged to keep up high-level contacts. Beijing presented the outcome as strategic stability, while Washington said the hard issues had been deferred.
5 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS Indonesia)IndonesiaEnglish
From Jakarta, nickel wealth brought no industrialisation; Thailand offers a way out
In a policy paper published on 2 October 2026, Deni Friawan, Rafael da Costa and Dandy Rafitrandi of the CSIS Indonesia economics department ask what geoeconomic fragmentation means for Indonesia. By fragmentation they mean supply chains being rebuilt around security and bloc alignment rather than efficiency. The country holds more than 40% of the world's nickel reserves and, as of 2025, more than 60% of global nickel output. Investment reached 1,714.2 trillion rupiah in 2024 and roughly 1,931 trillion rupiah in 2025. Yet in the authors' view this capital produced no technological leap. Participation in global value chains stands at 43%, below Malaysia's 57%, Vietnam's 55% and Thailand's 52%. R&D spending is roughly 0.24% of GDP.
3 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
China-US Focus (China-United States Exchange Foundation)ChinaEnglish· state-affiliated
A former Chinese diplomat argues the WTO's best days are over
Zhou Xiaoming, a retired deputy permanent representative of China to the UN Office at Geneva, argues in a piece published on 2 October 2026 that the WTO-centred trading system is past its peak. In his view the organisation will not regain the central role it held from 1995 to 2015 for at least 10 years, and a fragmented trade order will become entrenched. Zhou says the countries that wrote the rules are now dismantling them: the US applies Section 301 tariffs to some 60 partners, stretches the national security exception from steel to chip equipment and drones, and has imposed a 25% chip tariff on security grounds.
2 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa)South AfricaEnglish
Seen from Pretoria, the Arctic route could sideline African ports
In a piece published on 2 October 2026, Dhesigen Naidoo, a climate risk researcher at ISS Pretoria, and Denys Reva, a researcher on transnational threats, ask what the Northern Sea Route means for Africa. The route runs along Russia's Arctic coast, linking Asia to Europe. Warming, the authors argue, is making it commercially viable, and it is about 40% shorter than the Suez and Cape of Good Hope routes. Conventional voyages can exceed 40 days, while diverting via the Cape adds 14 days. Before the Red Sea disruptions, 15% of global seaborne trade and 30% of container trade passed through Suez. Between November 2023 and January 2026 there were 120 attacks in straits such as Malacca and the Bab el-Mandeb, and in some cases insurance costs rose tenfold.
2 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)RussiaEnglish· state-affiliated
Seen from Moscow, arms, grain and debt relief deepen ties with Africa
In a piece published by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) on 2 October 2026, MGIMO student Elizaveta Leyb reviews the results of the 2023 Russia–Africa Summit three years on. She recalls that all 54 African countries attended the first summit in 2019, 45 of them at head-of-state level. In her view, cooperation has gained substance since 2023: Russia–Africa trade rose from $18bn in 2022 to about $28bn in 2025. Agricultural exports grew 19% in 2023-2024 to $7bn, then expanded 40% in the first half of 2026 to $2.9bn.
2 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa)South AfricaEnglish
The Middle East maritime crisis has brought South Africa no gain
Timothy Walker, a consultant at the Pretoria-based ISS, wrote in the ISS Today series on 25 September 2026. He argues that disruptions at Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb have made Southern Africa more important but not richer. Container shipping has avoided the Red Sea since 2023 and shifted to the Cape of Good Hope route. According to the author, the diverted ships have little need to call at the region's ports. South African ports, including Cape Town and Durban, still sit near the bottom of the World Bank's latest container port performance ranking in 2026. Walker attributes this to years of underinvestment and congestion.
30 September 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East Council on Global AffairsQatarEnglish
The fate of the Development Road hinges on three Kurdish files
In a brief dated 23 September 2026 for the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Özge Genç and Berkay Mandıracı argue that the Iraqi Development Road is a promising but fragile corridor. The project links the Grand Faw Port in Basra to Türkiye by rail and road, with cost estimates of between 17 and 20 billion dollars. According to the authors, the binding constraint is 3 Kurdish files. These are the dispute over the route between Baghdad and Erbil, the peace process between Ankara and the PKK, and the integration of the SDF into the Syrian state. Damascus and the SDF reached a ceasefire on 30 January 2026. The authors regard joint progress on these 3 files as a necessary condition. The current plan leaves out Duhok and Erbil, and Ankara prefers 1 new border crossing, Ovaköy.
30 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
Observer Research Foundation (Expert Speak)IndiaEnglish
From New Delhi, BRICS must not swap one dependence for another
Writing for the Observer Research Foundation on 30 September 2026, Nilanjan Ghosh, Vice President of Development Studies at ORF, argues that BRICS is entering a third phase as India's 2026 chairship draws to a close. In his account, the first phase sought voice and representation in global governance. The second built options through alternative payment systems and development finance. The third aims at interoperability across finance, digital infrastructure, technology and industry. Ghosh cites India–Russia merchandise trade, which rose from about $13bn in 2021-22 to $69bn in 2024-25, as an example of diversification, and attributes the jump largely to purchases of discounted Russian crude.
30 September 2026 · South Asia
Observer Research Foundation (Expert Speak)India / Latin AmericaEnglish
Caribbean chokepoints are exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks
Ricardo J. Sánchez is an economist with more than 35 years of experience in infrastructure and logistics. He wrote in the Expert Speak series of India-based ORF on 28 September 2026. In the article, he argues that the sea corridors of Latin America and the Caribbean are exposed to the combined impact of climate shocks and geopolitical disruption. The author's first example is the 2023–2024 Panama Canal crisis. During the drought, daily transits fell from 35–38 ships to 22 in December, and the maximum draught was cut from 50 feet to 44 feet. The full schedule of 36 transits a day was only restored in September 2024. According to Sánchez, Caribbean maritime connectivity has declined by 9% over the past decade.
29 September 2026 · Americas
ASPI (The Strategist)Australia (Indian author)English
India is not thawing with China but managing ties sector by sector
Shibani Mehta, a geopolitical risk analyst at Control Risks, wrote on 25 September 2026 in The Strategist, published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). She argues that the recent warming between New Delhi and Beijing should not be read as a rise in strategic trust. In her view, India manages its relationship with China not through a single strategy but sector by sector, and the clearest evidence lies in regulation. For example, four China-linked electrical equipment makers with manufacturing plants in India have been temporarily allowed to bid for some transmission line tenders to ease supply shortages. Restrictions on telecoms and digital platforms, by contrast, remain in place; apps such as TikTok, banned after the border clashes, are still prohibited.
28 September 2026 · South Asia
Russia in Global Affairs (Rossiya v globalnoy politike)RussiaRussian
Seen from Moscow, the real rupture is Bab el-Mandeb, not Hormuz
Trade and customs policy expert Mikhail Bernovskiy published an opinion piece on 22 September 2026 in the Moscow-based journal Russia in Global Affairs. He argues that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has so far remained manageable, but that a closure of Bab el-Mandeb as well could bring down global merchandise trade. According to the author, the Hormuz shock was cushioned by Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline to the port of Yanbu. With this Red Sea outlet out of action, Saudi oil is being loaded at Sidi Kerir in Egypt and shipped to Asia around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds about a month to normal delivery times. Bernovskiy notes that experts expect the price per barrel to reach 120 dollars. He adds, however, that the exchange price does not reflect the cost of a barrel that is twice as expensive and delivered through extended logistics.
28 September 2026 · Eurasia
Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies (ECSS)EgyptArabic
Cairo sees Hormuz as a fight over who writes the post-war rules
In an analysis published on 27 September 2026 by the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies (ECSS) in Cairo, Galal Nassar, head of its Arab Studies Unit, argues that the US–Iran conflict no longer revolves around the date of the next strike. In his view, the real question is who will write the post-war rules. Nassar notes that Trump, addressing some 130 leaders at the UN General Assembly, both threatened to destroy Iran and predicted a historic deal after the 3 November election. He writes that the Western press has counted at least 8 similar swings in the 7 months since the war began in late February. Drawing on Schelling's concept of compellence, the author stresses that military force alone cannot deliver a political outcome.
27 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (Fulcrum)SingaporeEnglish
Cambodia's UNCLOS ratification unites ASEAN in law, not in politics
In a commentary published on 25 September 2026 on Fulcrum, the platform of Singapore's ISEAS, Huynh Trung Dung and Chheang Vannarith examine Cambodia's ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS, the 1982 treaty governing maritime zones). Cambodia signed the convention in 1983 but only ratified it in January 2026, becoming the 172nd party and the last ASEAN member to join. The authors see the deteriorating relationship with Thailand as the main driver. On 5 May 2026 Thailand terminated a 2001 memorandum of understanding on overlapping continental shelf claims. On 2 June Cambodia launched compulsory conciliation under Annex V of the convention; the first meeting took place in Singapore on 14–16 September.
25 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Global TimesChinaEnglish· state-affiliated
Beijing's summit message: China and the US should be partners, not rivals, yet tariffs and Taiwan go unmentioned
Global Times' editorial of 25 September presents Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington as a continuation of the formula for a constructive China–US relationship based on strategic stability, which it says was adopted at the Beijing summit in May 2026. According to the editorial, the two countries need not avoid competition, but competition must remain limited and healthy; the line of conflict and confrontation must not be crossed. It argues that many problems, from global recovery to regional crises and rules for artificial intelligence, cyberspace and outer space, cannot be solved without cooperation between the two countries, and writes that China's goal of national rejuvenation and the US goal of making America great again can complement each other.
25 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Lowy Institute (The Interpreter)Australia (Indian author)English
An eye from New Delhi on Gwadar: China's gamble to bypass Malacca has turned into a commercial and security burden
In a piece published on 25 September in the Lowy Institute's The Interpreter, Jaideep Saikia, a senior fellow at New Delhi's Council for Strategic & Defence Research, argues that Gwadar port, the showcase of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has ceased to be a strategic asset and become a financial and security liability. According to the author, the idea of linking Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea runs up against geography: the Karakoram road sits at altitudes above 4,600 metres and is exposed to landslides and avalanches, and along the roughly 3,000 kilometre mountainous route pipelines and overland transport are far more expensive than sea freight; the port therefore does not solve China's Malacca dilemma, and tankers leaving Gwadar still remain in an Indian Ocean dominated by the Indian navy.
25 September 2026 · South Asia
Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM)TürkiyeEnglish
A reading of Bab el-Mandeb from Ankara: the Houthis can now set the cost of transit without closing the strait
In the article ORSAM published in English on 25 September, first released in Turkish on 21 September, Kaan Devecioğlu argues that the Houthis' capture of the port of Mocha and their advance towards Perim (Mayun) island and the Hanish islands has put Bab el-Mandeb back on the world agenda. According to the author, the real issue is not a few towns changing hands: if these 3 points are merged into a single military system and backed by anti-ship missiles, unmanned aerial and naval vehicles, mines and coastal surveillance, they create a sea-denial capability that makes transit costly and unpredictable without physically closing the strait. The author notes that, according to IMF PortWatch data published on 18 September, 23 cargo vessels transited on 17 September, meaning traffic continues.
25 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
The Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)JapanJapanese
Tokyo fears a post-midterm squeeze from the US–China thaw
Kiyoyuki Seguchi is research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS) in Tokyo. His article appeared in JBpress on 23 September 2026 and was posted on the CIGS website on 30 September. In it he relays the views of more than 10 former officials and academics he met over 4 days in Washington and Boston from 8 September. One former official told him that US China policy should now be read through the tension between the president and his own cabinet. Most of the cabinet takes a hard line on China. The president, however, wants an image of stability with Beijing before the 3 November midterm elections, because of the cost of living and petrol prices pushed up by the Iran war. The author notes that most of the advanced chip export restrictions inherited from the Biden era remain in place, while some have been eased by presidential decision.
23 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)RussiaEnglish
A Moscow reading of the "sanctions from hell": the new US law mostly codifies what already exists
In his piece of 22 September, RIAC Director General Ivan Timofeev argues that the impact of the Russia law (H.R. 5334), adopted in the US after more than a year of debate and publicly dubbed the sanctions from hell, has been overstated. According to the author, the label would have been apt had the law been passed in early 2022. Examining its provisions one by one, Timofeev recalls that financial sanctions, restrictions on major banks and state companies, and bans on asset transfers, stock exchange listings and investment are already in force through presidential executive orders or earlier laws, and that the energy import ban was introduced in 2022 and the ban on Russian uranium in 2024.
22 September 2026 · Eurasia
China Institute of International Studies (CIIS)ChinaChinese· state-affiliated
A reading of ASEAN from Beijing: 1.05 trillion dollars in trade presented as the backbone of the shared-future narrative
The article by Jiang Zhida of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CIIS, which is affiliated with China's Foreign Ministry, appeared on China.com on 20 September and was published on the institute's website on 21 September; it was written on the occasion of the 23rd China–ASEAN Expo held in Nanning on 17–21 September. The author notes that all 11 ASEAN members attended the expo and that Timor-Leste took part for the first time as a full member and co-organiser. 2026 marks the 35th year of the dialogue relationship and the 5th year of the comprehensive strategic partnership. The article describes the relationship on 4 pillars: intellectual direction through the shared-future proposal of October 2013 and the five-homes framework of November 2021, economic integration, joint governance in security, and people-to-people exchange.
21 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI)PakistanEnglish
The Indus ruling from Islamabad: the legal victory is won, but implementation, not The Hague, will decide the water
In his assessment dated 21 September, Mian Ahmad Naeem Salik, a researcher at ISSI's Centre for Strategic Perspectives, examines the Court of Arbitration's ruling of 31 August 2026. The court ruled unanimously that the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty remains fully in force, that India's unilateral suspension declared in April 2025 is legally invalid, and that grounds of sovereignty, security, climate change or energy needs are insufficient for termination. For the 850 MW Ratle plant, it imposed a narrow interim measure restricting certain concrete works until 90 days after the neutral expert's decision, expected in July 2027. The author reads the ruling as the latest link in a chain running from the 2023 competence decision to the May 2026 decision on maximum pondage, and says it strengthens Pakistan's legal footing.
21 September 2026 · South Asia
Delhi Policy Group (DPG)IndiaEnglish
BRICS 2026: the geopolitics of consensus, the New Delhi Declaration and the implementation gap
Ambassador Kamboj, a senior fellow at DPG, assesses the 18th BRICS Summit held in New Delhi on 12–13 September: India held the chair for the fourth time, and for the first time since enlargement; more than 400 meetings were held in 30 cities over the year, 32 delegations attended the summit and Modi held 15 bilateral meetings in three days. Although the foreign ministers' meeting had failed to produce a joint text, the New Delhi Declaration was adopted by consensus. The declaration addresses West Asia by naming Israel, Gaza, Palestine and Lebanon, but does not mention Ukraine; it condemns the 22 April 2025 attack in Jammu and Kashmir but does not name Pakistan, whereas the 2017 Xiamen Declaration named organisations.
18 September 2026 · South Asia
Policy Center for the New SouthMoroccoEnglish
A Reading from Rabat: Cross-Border Payment Infrastructure Is Splitting into Three Blocs
The policy brief of 17 September 2026 from the Policy Center for the New South reads cross-border payment infrastructure no longer as a technical question of efficiency but as a geopolitical race in which three separate trading spaces are taking shape. On the China-centred wing, mBridge has moved from 164 transactions and a volume of 22 million dollars in 2022 to 4,000 transactions and 55.5 billion dollars in 2025, with the renminbi's share as the routing currency at around 95%. The withdrawal of the BIS from the project in 2024 shifted the initiative's weight further towards the Chinese side. CIPS has more than 1,700 international members across 190 countries and territories, and its daily transaction volume exceeds 180 billion dollars. China settles up to 60% of its cross-border receipts and payments in renminbi; that share was 10% in 2017. Against this, the renminbi makes up only about 3% of global SWIFT payments and 8% of trade finance; the total commitment under the swap lines the PBoC has established with 40 central banks is around 500 billion dollars.
17 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Instituto IgarapéBrazilEnglish
A reading of illegal gold from Rio: the cheapest point to stop Amazon gold is the first purchase
The 17-page study published on 16 September by the Rio de Janeiro-based Instituto Igarapé compares the moment of first purchase, when illegal gold enters the formal market, across 5 countries: Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. The report sets out the scale of the problem with its sources: about 73% of detected alluvial gold extraction in Colombia is illegal (UNODC, 2023); in Peru illegal gold exports are reported to be approaching legal exports; the Bolivian government estimated in 2020 that half of the gold exported came from undeclared imports, largely from Peru; and more than 4,400 illegal mining sites have been mapped in the Amazon basin (RAISG, 2020).
16 September 2026 · Americas
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa)South AfricaEnglish
A Reading from Pretoria: The Africa Group Seeks to Move Tax Rule-Making from the OECD to the UN
The analysis published in ISS Today on 11 September 2026 recounts the negotiation of the Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, which African countries are pursuing at the UN, as a calculation of winners and losers. The core issue is institutional rather than technical: whether rule-making authority stays with the OECD, made up of 38 developed economies, or passes to the UN, where every member state has a vote. It argues that the OECD-G20 two-pillar solution set out in 2021 and backed by more than 140 countries has not kept its promise to tax multinational companies where they earn their income. According to the text, the negotiations are roughly halfway through the formal timetable; alongside the framework convention, the co-chairs have put into circulation draft texts of two additional protocols, on cross-border services and on the resolution of tax disputes.
11 September 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
IEEJ (Institute of Energy Economics, Japan)JapanEnglish
Hormuz in its sixth month: the stock buffer is thinning for Asian importers
Koyama describes the Hormuz crisis as the first event in which oil and LNG supply were cut simultaneously and on a large scale, and characterises it as the largest supply disruption in the history of international energy markets. According to the piece, the understanding between the parties did not last: on 30 August the US struck military facilities in Iran for the first time since the end of July, and Iran retaliated against US bases in the region.
4 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific
SETATürkiyeTurkish
The real risk in the EU carbon border levy is uncertainty, not cost
Sönmez argues that the main challenge of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism stems not from cost but from uncertainty in its relationship with multilateral climate frameworks. The mechanism draws its legitimacy from the Paris Agreement, yet its scope and implementation criteria are set entirely within the EU's own institutional processes.
3 September 2026 · Europe
ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (Fulcrum)SingaporeEnglish
ASEAN after the Gulf crisis: from oil security to grid security
The authors note that the Gulf crisis has exposed ASEAN's dependence on the Middle East: the Philippines sources 95 per cent of its oil imports and Vietnam 49 per cent of its gas imports from the region. Electricity demand in the region rose 60 per cent between 2015 and 2025 and is expected to grow by 4 per cent a year until 2035.
2 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific
IICyber Warfare & Critical Infrastructure
IIIKinetic Conflicts & Defence
Policy Center for the New South (PCNS)MoroccoFrench
PCNS: double veto leaves an operational, not legal, void in Western Sahara
In a policy note dated 4 November, Mohammed Loulichki of the Rabat-based Policy Center for the New South examines the end of MINURSO, the UN mission in Western Sahara. On 30 October the Security Council vetoed two rival drafts, and the mission's mandate lapsed from 1 November. According to the author, the Council failed to reach a decision on the Sahara for the first time in 35 years. It was also the first time a mandate expired with nothing to replace it.
4 November 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Arab News (opinion)Saudi ArabiaEnglish
Arab News columnist urges Gulf defence pact to move beyond declarations
Writing in Arab News on 3 November, Kuwait University law professor Bashayer Al-Majed argues that Gulf solidarity has not gone beyond declarations. On 18 October, Gulf foreign ministers invoked the joint defence agreement signed in Manama in December 2000, under which an attack on one of the six members counts as an attack on all. A few days later, Houthi attacks threatened the area around Mecca and a ballistic missile was shot down over southern Saudi Arabia.
3 November 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa)South AfricaEnglish
ISS sees Congolese refugees trapped between war and closing borders
According to an ISS analysis published on 2 November, the war in eastern Congo has turned a protracted refugee problem into a regional emergency. In June 2026, UNHCR counted 1.25 million Congolese refugees and asylum seekers, 80% of them in neighbouring countries. More than 245,000 new arrivals were recorded between January 2025 and April 2026. Burundi received around 142,000 new arrivals, while Uganda hosts 53% of Congolese refugees.
2 November 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Observer Research Foundation (ORF Expert Speak)IndiaEnglish
ORF sees Karakoram 2026 taking China–Pakistan ties beyond arms sales
The ORF piece of 29 October examines Karakoram 2026, the first joint ground training between China's People's Liberation Army and the Pakistan Army. China's Defence Ministry announced the exercise on 10 October. Training began on 14 October in Korla, Xinjiang, and the skills exchange phase ended on 19 October. The focus was joint high-altitude counter-terrorism operations. Citing the Global Times, the piece lists Type 191 rifles, Type 11 armoured assault vehicles, Type 08 infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, drones and counter-drone systems.
29 October 2026 · South Asia
Dawn (editorial)PakistanEnglish
Dawn argues the Mecca pact should offer Iran non-aggression, not alliance
In its editorial of 28 October, Dawn treats the meeting in Tehran on Monday 26 October between senior officials of the Mecca defence pact's three partners — Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye — and their Iranian counterparts as globally significant. According to the paper, the meeting was proposed by Pakistan's Chief of Defence Forces, who had visited Tehran a week earlier. Saudi Arabia was represented by its defence minister, the crown prince's brother, which the editorial reads as a sign that Riyadh gave the meeting top priority. According to Iran's readout, the parties pledged to keep up dialogue on regional peace and security.
28 October 2026 · South Asia
Arab NewsGulf (Saudi Arabia)English
GCC official says Russia could restrain Iran from attacking its neighbours
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg, the Gulf Cooperation Council's Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Negotiation, calls on Russia to help contain the Iran war in a column published in Arab News on 21 October. The author's note says the piece reflects his own views, not those of the GCC. His starting point is the latest GCC–Russia Strategic Dialogue meeting in Bahrain, a format launched in November 2011. According to Aluwaisheg, GCC–Russia trade exceeded $24 billion in 2025, up roughly 60% in a year.
22 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
The Express TribunePakistanEnglish
Express Tribune says India's submarine warheads deepen doubts over no first use
In its 22 October editorial, The Express Tribune argues that India is rewriting its strategic doctrine towards Pakistan and unsettling the regional balance in the process. The paper leans on a warning from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) that India has placed around 12 nuclear warheads on 1 submarine for deterrent patrols. In the editorial's reading, the move casts doubt on India's declared policy of no first use. It treats ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons and AI-enabled strike capabilities as part of the same effort to tilt the deterrence balance.
22 October 2026 · South Asia
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Today)Ethiopia / AfricaEnglish
Africa has sent more Red Sea envoys but gained little sway, says ISS
Writing on 21 October, Moses Chrispus Okello of ISS Addis Ababa argues that the Houthis (Ansarullah) shattered a core assumption when they seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb in September. The insurgency, he says, can no longer be treated as a northern Yemeni affair. Their ties to al-Shabaab now disrupt a passage that carries roughly 15% of global trade. Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia have become entangled with the crises of the Middle East.
21 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Nueva SociedadLatin America (Argentina)Spanish
Nueva Sociedad finds Ethiopia's quest for the sea exists only on paper
Writing in the Latin American journal Nueva Sociedad on 19 October, Héctor Barros and Federico Muiña describe how Ethiopia's search for access to the sea has grown into a regional crisis. On 1 January 2024 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland's leader Muse Bihi Abdi signed a memorandum under which Ethiopia was to lease about 20 kilometres of coastline for 50 years for its navy. According to the authors, the full text was never published and the lease never took effect. Somalia treated the deal as a breach of its sovereignty. Türkiye mediated in Ankara in December 2024, where the parties agreed on respect for Somali sovereignty and a formula for commercial access, but the port question was left unresolved.
19 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Sasakawa Peace Foundation (IINA)JapanEnglish
A shrinking UN needs a secretary-general willing to defy great powers
Writing on the Sasakawa Peace Foundation's analysis platform on 16 October, Sumie Nakaya of Tokyo University of Foreign Studies argues that the next UN Secretary-General will inherit an organisation shrunk by financial and political pressure. The UN80 initiative Guterres announced in 2025 contains 86 action points, including a 20% budget cut and the abolition of 6,900 of roughly 35,000 Secretariat posts. According to the May 2026 interim report, approved Secretariat staffing has fallen by 21%. Some 220 posts have moved out of costly hubs such as New York and Geneva, and about 1,900 more have been relocated across the wider UN system.
16 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa)South AfricaEnglish
Seen from Pretoria, joint command not new bases will secure Lake Chad
In a piece published on 15 October 2026, Raoul Sumo Tayo, senior researcher at ISS Africa's Central Africa Observatory, examines the Lake Chad Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR) that Cameroon stood up in September. The unit of roughly 1,000 troops is deploying alongside some 500 soldiers at Makary and Blangoua, while new bases at Bargaram and Hilé-Alifa opened in September. IOM data show that recent attacks at Darak, Bargaram and Hilé-Alifa displaced more than 11,300 people. The aim, the author writes, is to stop Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) from shifting its stronghold in north-eastern Nigeria into northern Cameroon, and to establish a permanent presence in areas where militants tax the local population.
15 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Observer Research Foundation (Expert Speak)IndiaEnglish
From New Delhi, the Gulf's Pakistan shield fails without economic resilience
In an ORF piece dated 15 October, Gopi Krishna Bhamidipati argues that the six monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council rest their security on two pillars. For military deterrence they rely on transactional defence pacts with Pakistan; for lasting commercial stability, on India's economic weight. In his view, the ongoing war has exposed the weakness of both. Through the Mecca Pact in August, Pakistan had implied it would respond to attacks spilling into Saudi Arabia, then said a military response against the Houthis was not on the table. The author links this retreat to dependence on the IMF, fuel austerity and Baloch concerns along the 550-mile border with Iran.
15 October 2026 · South Asia
Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)JapanEnglish
From Tokyo, old destroyers handed to Manila do not deliver deterrence alone
A report by JIIA researcher Hironobu Takezawa, published on 14 October, examines Japan's transfer of Abukuma-class destroyers to the Philippines. On 21 April 2026 Japan revised its principles on defence equipment exports. It scrapped the five permitted categories of rescue, transport, warning, surveillance and minesweeping; any type of equipment can now be transferred subject to review. On 7 July Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro announced agreement in principle on the transfer of five destroyers. The ships are to be delivered within 2–3 years of decommissioning. On 28 May the two countries raised ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the first of its kind for the Philippines.
14 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Russia in Global Affairs (Rossiya v globalnoy politike)RussiaEnglish
India belongs at the Eurasian Charter table, not on its signature page
Sujal Yadav, of the Russian and Central Asian studies centre at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, weighs the Eurasian Charter proposed by Russia and Belarus against Indian interests in a piece published by the Moscow journal on 14 October. Nine countries signed the charter's joint declaration in New York on 25 September, during the 81st session of the UN General Assembly: Belarus, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Myanmar, Russia, Tajikistan and Vietnam. India did not sign. The text provides for decisions by consensus and adoption at a leaders' summit before the end of 2027. Drafting is due to start at the Minsk Security Conference in November.
14 October 2026 · South Asia
Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker (STPT)SudanEnglish
Sanctions moved Sudan's war economy rather than breaking it, monitor says
A 54-page October 2026 report by STPT, a Sudan-focused monitoring group, was publicised by Dabanga on 13 October. It finds that since the war began in April 2023, Canada, the EU, the UK, the UN and the US have sanctioned a total of 32 individuals and 20 companies. The authors measure sanctions against three effects: deterrence, disruption and norm signalling. They conclude that more than three years of sanctions have disrupted some financial and supply channels but have not dismantled the networks financing the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
13 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Horn ReviewEthiopiaEnglish
From Addis Ababa, Eritrea is the aggressor and Ethiopia acts in self-defence
A 12 October piece by Horn Review researcher Mahder Nesibu compares the letters the two capitals sent to the UN Security Council. On 9 October Ethiopia described the advance of Eritrean forces up to 60 kilometres into its territory as open aggression; Eritrea accused Ethiopia of preparing for a war it had been declaring for more than three years. The author recalls that the 2022 Pretoria agreement ended the Tigray war but that its implementation has faltered, and that the 2018 rapprochement between Addis Ababa and Asmara has unravelled.
12 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)Russia and IranEnglish· state-affiliated
US force pushes the Russia–Iran partnership towards defence, Moscow and Tehran argue
The piece RIAC published on 12 October is co-written by two academics, one in Moscow and one in Tehran: Igor Matveev of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and Qasem Osuli Odlu of Allameh Tabataba'i University. Their argument is that US use of force and Western sanctions are pushing the two countries into military, political and economic interdependence. The authors take as their starting point Trump's remark at the UN General Assembly on 22 September 2026 that he could destroy Iran if there is no deal.
12 October 2026 · Eurasia
Rasanah – International Institute for Iranian StudiesSaudi ArabiaEnglish
Seen from Riyadh, Iran's Janfada campaign binds society to the security apparatus
In a report dated 7 October 2026, the editorial team at Riyadh-based Rasanah examines Janfada (roughly, 'sacrificing one's life'), the mobilisation campaign Iran launched in March 2026. It began as a symbolic call for citizens to show they were ready to defend the country, but gradually turned into a military structure with weapons training and mass drills. Iranian officials cite 313,000 participants; the report notes that this figure cannot be verified. Officials say they aim to form 1,000 resistance battalions.
10 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa)South AfricaEnglish
Houthi gains at Bab el-Mandeb bind Africa's Horn to the Middle East
ISS Africa's piece of 9 October asks what the territory the Houthis seized at the mouth of the Red Sea, after the US–Israeli strikes of February 2026, means for Africa. In the author's reading, the September gains handed the Houthis a de facto veto over Bab el-Mandeb, a passage that carries roughly 30% of global container traffic and 12% of annual trade. This week the Saudi-backed Yemeni government retook part of the strait, and the Houthis stepped up missile attacks on Saudi airports.
9 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Valdai Discussion ClubRussiaEnglish· state-affiliated
From Moscow, Poland turns from Ukraine's EU engine into its brake
In a piece dated 7 October 2026, Anton Bespalov, a programme director at the Valdai Club, argues that Poland may now act as a brake on Ukraine's European integration. In the early 2000s, Warsaw had been the driving force behind that process. The author says the 2026 reversal is economic rather than ideological: Poles are not prepared to bear the cost of accession. Bespalov reports that Polish support for Ukraine's rapid EU membership fell from 60% in March 2022 to 9% in July 2026. Over the same period, outright opposition to membership rose from 2% to 40%.
7 October 2026 · Europe
MP-IDSA (Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)IndiaEnglish· state-affiliated
New Delhi sees a stronger Taliban still held back by isolation
In a brief dated 6 October 2026 for MP-IDSA, which is funded by India's defence ministry, Priyanka Singh assesses five years of Taliban rule. Singh argues that the Taliban have consolidated power but that international isolation remains their biggest obstacle. Russia became the first country to grant them full diplomatic recognition and signed a military agreement in May 2026, while China, Pakistan and India have not formalised ties. The author contends that the Taliban have benefited as the Ukraine war and the US–Israel–Iran conflict pulled the world's attention elsewhere.
6 October 2026 · South Asia
Timbuktu Institute – African Center for Peace StudiesSenegalEnglish
Dakar sees Burkina Faso extending its sovereignty drive to armour and NGOs
An assessment dated 6 October 2026 by the Dakar-based Timbuktu Institute describes how Burkina Faso under Captain Ibrahim Traoré is pushing its sovereigntist line on three fronts at once. On the military-industrial side, officials announced that about 300 armoured vehicles had been produced over ten months through a company called Faso Armored. The vehicles are designed for the needs of the conflict zones in the north and are meant to reduce dependence on imports. The institute notes that this production capacity has yet to be verified and that the sustainability of long-term maintenance is uncertain.
6 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Amani Africa (Ideas Indaba)Ethiopia (Horn of Africa)English
Somalia needs a political settlement before outside powers capture it
Writing for Amani Africa on 5 October 2026, Abdul Mohammed and Samira Gaid argue that Somalia's internal divisions are now fed less by clan politics than by external security relationships. Their starting point is 12 September: according to the authors, the Houthis reached Mayun (Perim) island at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb, through which roughly 12% of world trade by volume passes, and Washington answered Saudi Arabia's request for help with intelligence support only. The authors say the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz have merged into a single theatre of war, raising the value of the Red Sea's western shore. The same week Somaliland's leader was in Washington seeking recognition; Israel had recognised Somaliland on 26 December 2025.
5 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Al Jazeera Centre for Studies (AJCS)QatarArabic
From Doha, a fading US umbrella leaves the Mashriq on its own
An Arabic policy brief from the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, whose English summary was published on 4 October 2026, argues that the Mashriq has entered a period of unprecedented security disorder. The Mashriq is the Arab east stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf. The page does not name the author. According to the text, past crises revolved around regimes, rivalry between neighbours or limited Arab–Israeli wars. Today's crisis combines Israel's war with the Palestinians and regional actors, interstate conflict and a contest for influence, all at once. The brief describes the Houthi seizure of Bab el-Mandeb and their subsequent attacks on Saudi Arabia as both a symptom and the peak of this disorder.
4 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)South AfricaEnglish
From Africa, UN peacekeeping reform may be budget cuts by another name
On 30 September 2026, Rumbidzaishe Mupfiga, a specialist in the peace support unit of Durban-based ACCORD, weighed the UN Secretary-General's 2026 review of peace operations from an African standpoint. The review proposes that missions support a political process, that mandates be narrowed and that mandate renewals serve as tools for a withdrawal plan. Mupfiga recalls that the report records a cut of roughly 500 million dollars in the 2026/27 peacekeeping budget. She adds that the liquidity crisis has sent thousands of troops home since late 2025. In her view, the language of efficiency must not become an excuse for inadequate equipment. An agile mission, she stresses, still needs medical support, mobility and situational awareness.
3 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Policy Center for the New South (PCNS)MoroccoEnglish
Rabat sees the Mecca pact as a bargaining network, not NATO
In a September 2026 policy brief for the Rabat-based Policy Center for the New South, Ferid Belhaj, a former World Bank vice-president for the Middle East and North Africa, examines the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan on 7 August 2026. Belhaj argues that the agreement borrows the language of NATO's Article 5 but lacks the joint command, joint planning and interoperability that make it credible. The first Strategic Political and Defence Committee, which met in Istanbul on 31 August, agreed to set up a permanent secretariat in Saudi Arabia. The author counts this as progress, but also reads it as an admission that credibility still has to be built.
30 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)RussiaEnglish· state-affiliated
Seen from Moscow, NATO's Article 5 is no automatic defence guarantee
The article by RIAC president Dmitriy Trenin, published on the council's website on 29 September 2026, first appeared on the Russian state broadcaster RT. Trenin argues that Article 5 of the 1949 Washington Treaty is widely misunderstood. In his view, the article was deliberately drafted to be vague in order to allay the US Senate's concerns about a binding alliance, and it does not provide for an automatic military response. Throughout the Cold War, US nuclear strategy aimed to avoid direct nuclear conflict with the Soviet Union and to confine any war to Europe. Today, Trenin writes, the Trump administration is shifting US forces to East Asia and the Pacific and handing the burden of NATO's defence to its European members.
29 September 2026 · Europe
Valdai Discussion ClubRussiaEnglish· state-affiliated
Moscow seeks to rebuild arms control through joint missile notification with Beijing
Dmitry Stefanovich is a researcher in the military economics division of IMEMO, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In an article published at the Valdai Club on 28 September 2026, he argues that the trio of Russia, China and the US determines global stability. The article follows a Russian–Chinese conference held by Valdai and East China Normal University on 27 September. According to the author, in the absence of arms control agreements, states plan for the worst case, which accelerates the arms race. Xi Jinping's visit to the US showed that even bilateral bargaining is difficult. The White House statement referred to Russia as a 'concern' and voiced interest in trilateral arms control.
29 September 2026 · Eurasia
EDAM (Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies)TürkiyeTurkish (English translation)
An emptying hall does not close the West's credibility gap on Israel
In a piece published by Istanbul-based EDAM on 28 September 2026, retired ambassador and EDAM chairman Tacan İldem starts from Netanyahu's address to the UN General Assembly on 24 September. It is the English translation of a column that appeared in Turkish in T24 the same day. İldem notes that dozens of delegations walked out, yet no Western country joined them apart from Spain and Ireland, and even those 2 left a diplomat behind to take notes. His central question is why the West does not apply the principles it defends in Ukraine to Israel with the same resolve. In his view the gap cannot be explained away as diplomatic nuance. It is a plain double standard, and it erodes Western soft power worldwide.
28 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
Gulf Research Center (GRC)Saudi Arabia (Jeddah)English
The Gulf turns to Europe on defence without an EU strategy
Chantal Hohe, a visiting researcher at the Jeddah-based Gulf Research Center, published a commentary on 27 September 2026. She writes that the 2026 Iran war has turned the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states into a direct front line. As a result, she argues, they are turning more towards Europe on defence. According to the author, every Gulf state except Oman has formed defence-industrial partnerships with Türkiye based on air systems and technology transfer. The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia with Pakistan and Türkiye, and joint UAE–South Korea projects, are part of the same trend. Hohe stresses that neither the 1989 EU–GCC Cooperation Agreement nor the strategic partnership agreements now in preparation contain a binding defence clause.
28 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
Amani Africa (Ideas Indaba)EthiopiaEnglish
A Sudan appeal from Addis Ababa: UN General Assembly mediation must become a concrete 90-day action plan
In a guest piece published on 23 September on Ideas Indaba, the opinion platform of Addis Ababa-based Amani Africa, Abdul Mohammed argues that Sudan was neglected during UN General Assembly week, yet the war is unusually amenable to resolution compared with other crises in the region. The author notes that, according to the World Food Programme, roughly 20 million people faced acute hunger as of 14 September, that the programme's Sudan funding fell from 645 million dollars the previous year to 206 million dollars this year, that current operations face a 300 million dollar gap and that recipients receive only half rations. He also recalls the IOM's warning that the humanitarian system could collapse within weeks.
23 September 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Horn ReviewEthiopiaEnglish
"The Alliance for Survival": Eritrea's proxy coalition as seen from Addis Ababa
In a piece published on 23 September, the day Tigrayan forces took Mekelle airport, international law and foreign affairs specialist Amanuel Tadesse reads the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival, declared on 20 September, as a proxy coalition assembled by Eritrea. According to the author, the alliance comprises seven organisations: the TPLF, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, and the Benishangul and Gumuz movements. Tadesse regards it as the product of Eritrea's doctrine of expanding its sphere of influence through cross-border militarisation, buffer zones and non-state actors, in other words "transnational power projection".
23 September 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Centro Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (CEBRI)BrazilPortuguese
The world on the road to the 81st UN General Assembly: record conflict, record armament, slowing trade
CEBRI's five-page briefing note, published on 22 September, sets out the backdrop to the 81st UN General Assembly (22–28 September) under four headings. On climate, drawing on the UNFCCC's September 2026 report, it now treats overshooting the 1.5°C limit as unavoidable: even in the optimistic scenario the end-of-century peak is +1.8°C, and without effective adaptation global food production could fall by up to 14% by 2050. On conflict, using Uppsala data, it records 2025 as the most violent year since 1946: 65 state-based armed conflicts in 35 countries, 245,000 direct battle deaths (188,000 in 2024) and 76,500 civilian deaths from one-sided violence, the highest count since the Rwandan genocide.
22 September 2026 · Americas
Al Jazeera Centre for Studies (AJCS)QatarArabic
Expansion and exposure: is Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb coast a tactical gain or a strategic trap?
According to the English summary of the Arabic original, after taking the port of Mocha on 10 September the Houthis seized Mayun (Perim) island, Dhubab, the Hanish islands and 6 districts in Taiz and Hodeidah the following day, bringing a coastal strip of about 5,400 square kilometres under their control. The operation began on 3 September with diversionary attacks on government forces heading towards the capital; after government forces took Hays on 5 September, the Houthis advanced south along the coast. The strait carries about 8 per cent of global oil trade and 15 per cent of total trade.
15 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
Middle East Council on Global AffairsQatarEnglish
The Gulf caught between two straits: Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb as a single front
According to Al-Jaber, by seizing Mocha, Dhubab and Perim Island under the direction of the Revolutionary Guards, the Houthis have turned from an insurgent movement in Yemen into a strategic actor able to threaten Bab el-Mandeb directly. The author argues that Iran uses the two straits not as separate fronts but as a single maritime space that squeezes the world economy from east and west at the same time.
13 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
China-US FocusChinaEnglish· state-affiliated
The view from Beijing: the US has no exit plan in the Iran war
Zhang argues that US policy in the Iran war, which began in February 2026, has been driven by improvisation, contradictory messaging and the lack of an exit plan. He contends that even within the administration there is disagreement over the war's aims, and writes that Iran's nuclear and military capabilities serve as deterrence in a region dominated by the US–Israeli military presence, so that Washington has misdiagnosed Iran.
7 September 2026 · Americas
SETATürkiyeTurkish
A Red Sea security architecture that is institutionally dense but selective on the ground
Demirtaş does not see the Multinational Maritime Defence Alliance, founded in Riyadh on 30 July with 14 founding members, merely as a response to the Houthi threat; he regards it as an institutionalised product of the regional security network. Türkiye is one of the alliance's founding members. Ankara also signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on 7 August; the author describes it as the first Article 5-type commitment Türkiye has undertaken outside NATO.
3 September 2026 · Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood
IVMacro Policy & Sovereign Debt
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa)South AfricaEnglish
ISS finds South African municipal corruption runs daily, not by election cycle
ACTis, the ISS corruption-tracking system, examined 20 municipalities in an analysis published a day before the 4 November local elections: 9 local, 3 district and 8 metropolitan. The team screened records from the past 3–5 years with an AI tool developed for the ISS. Its conclusion is that corruption stems not from isolated cases but from a system that reproduces itself. It found systemic irregularity in financial controls in 17 of the 20 municipalities, and irregular appointments facilitating corruption in 14.
3 November 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Observer Research Foundation (Expert Speak)IndiaEnglish
ORF credits Lula's comeback to a digital push and his rival's misstep
Writing for ORF on 3 November, Hari Seshasayee notes that Lula is the first Brazilian candidate to trail in the first round and go on to win the run-off. In the first round on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%. In the run-off, Lula won 64.25 million votes against Bolsonaro's 59.82 million. According to the author, Lula's vote rose in all 26 states and the federal district, and Minas Gerais was the only state to switch sides.
3 November 2026 · Americas
Valdai Discussion ClubRussiaEnglish· state-affiliated
Valdai traces France's crisis to three constraints tightening at once
In a piece published by Valdai on 3 November, Aleksei Chikhachev of St Petersburg State University reads France through the debate over Europe's new sick man. He cites a poll in which 85% of the French see their country in decline and 98% are dissatisfied. At the end of 2025, public debt stood at 115% of GDP and the budget deficit at 5.1%. In the author's view, the deficit has been a chronic problem since the mid-1970s, and unemployment is rising again.
3 November 2026 · Europe
The Daily Star (editorial)BangladeshEnglish
Daily Star says wilful defaults are blunting Bangladesh's monetary easing
According to the Daily Star's editorial of 30 October, non-performing loans exceeded 6 lakh crore taka as of June 2026, roughly a third of all loans disbursed. Bangladesh Bank data put the figure at 6,06,555 crore taka, or 32.78%. Experts say more than 80% of the portfolio sits with wilful defaulters. The paper links most of them to a handful of politically connected groups that exploited lax rules under the Awami League.
30 October 2026 · South Asia
ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (Fulcrum)SingaporeEnglish
Fulcrum: Malaysia's budget funds the states by bargaining, not by rule
Writing on ISEAS's Fulcrum platform on 29 October, Tricia Yeoh reads Malaysia's 2027 budget through the lens of transfers to the states. On 9 October Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim presented a 510-billion-ringgit federal budget, the largest in the country's history. In the author's view, it may be the last annual budget before the 16th general election.
29 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Business TodayIndiaEnglish
Business Today says India is spreading its oil-shock bill across state ledgers
An analysis by Basudha Das in Business Today on 24 October draws on a 23 October Axis Bank Research report to work out who is bearing the cost of high oil prices in India. The report puts total support at about 1.7% of GDP this year, assuming crude averages $100. As long as retail prices stay frozen, every $10 rise per barrel adds 20 basis points of GDP to the burden.
24 October 2026 · South Asia
Pakistan Today (editorial)PakistanEnglish
Pakistan Today calls the IMF's contraction forecast realistic and urges an export push
In an unsigned editorial on 24 October, Lahore-based Pakistan Today takes up the IMF's October forecasts. The paper says the IMF expects contraction across the region, Pakistan included, because of the war in the Middle East. The picture is bleaker for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which the IMF expects to enter recession after 4 or more consecutive quarters of contraction. The editorial finds the IMF's assumption that the war will run into 2027 reasonable. It also suspects Washington has deferred any move until after the midterm elections, roughly 2 weeks away.
24 October 2026 · South Asia
The Reporter (editorial)EthiopiaEnglish
The Reporter argues competition, not price caps, will ease Ethiopian prices
In an unsigned editorial on 24 October, the Addis Ababa-based independent weekly The Reporter reads the capital's meat boycott as a symptom of a wider cost-of-living crisis. When beef at upmarket butchers reached 6,000 birr a kilogram, residents stayed away from those shops. The city administration held talks and imposed price caps in some districts. According to the paper, Ethiopia has endured recurring waves of inflation for more than 10 years. In recent months living costs have outpaced incomes, a gap that carries a risk of political instability.
24 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
The Daily StarBangladeshEnglish
A Dhaka economist says market policing, not rates, will tame inflation
In a column published in The Daily Star on 22 October, Sayema Haque Bidisha, an economics professor at Dhaka University, names persistent inflation and slowing investment as Bangladesh's 2 most pressing problems. Despite ample liquidity in the banking system, she writes, private sector credit grew by only 4.8% in August. Investment is stuck at 22% of GDP. A 62,000 crore taka stimulus package, announced by the central bank in May to reopen idle factories, has drawn limited interest.
22 October 2026 · South Asia
Premium TimesNigeriaEnglish
Premium Times columnist says 4% growth will not break Nigerian poverty
Posi Olatubosun, a lecturer in accounting and finance in the UK, argues in Premium Times on 22 October that Nigeria's improved growth forecasts are not enough to change people's lives. The IMF has raised its 2026 forecast to 4.2% and expects 4.3% in 2027; the World Bank projects 4.3% in 2026 and an average of 4.4% in 2027–2028. Official data show the economy grew 4.43% in the second quarter, up from 3.89% in the first. With the population rising by about 2.5% a year, per capita income grows by only 1.5–2%; at that pace, the author reckons, average income would take more than 30 years to double.
22 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
The Business Standard (TBS)BangladeshEnglish
TBS argues Bangladesh's IMF programme must deliver bank repair, not money
The investment banker Fahim Chowdhury, writing in Dhaka's The Business Standard on 22 October, argues that the new IMF programme matters less for its money than for what it proves. Reported at about 4.5 billion dollars, the facility would show investors that the government is still able to reform. He recounts that the Finance Minister declared the conditions unacceptable on 4 October and said the programme had been cancelled. Twelve days later, in Bangkok, the same minister called the proposals acceptable in principle. Moody's moved the outlook to stable in September, while treating the IMF relationship as important support for external financing.
22 October 2026 · South Asia
Capital (editorial)EthiopiaEnglish
Addis Ababa's business weekly warns a deferred payment is not forgiven debt
In an unsigned editorial dated 18 October, the Addis Ababa business weekly Capital argues that Ethiopia's debt problem should be judged not by the billions involved but by whether the financing strengthens the country's capacity to earn foreign currency. Drawing on an IMF–World Bank assessment, the paper puts net transfers from IDA at $1.1 billion in 2021/22, $1.7 billion in 2022/23 and $1.5 billion in 2023/24. IDA programmes approved in 2023/24 came to $3.2 billion. The editorial rejects reading the gap as money withheld: approvals are disbursed over several years, and net transfers are calculated after debt service.
21 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Observer Research Foundation (Expert Speak)IndiaEnglish
A rate rise anchors Indian expectations but not imported inflation
Writing on 16 October, Arya Roy Bardhan and Damayantee Majumdar of ORF's Centre for New Economic Diplomacy examine the Reserve Bank of India's decision of 7 October. The bank raised the policy rate by 0.25 points to 5.5%, its first increase since February 2023. By moving to a calibrated tightening stance, the Monetary Policy Committee shut down expectations of a near-term cut. The bank forecasts average inflation of 5.2% for fiscal year 2026-27 and 5.7% for the final quarter; a weak monsoon is pushing food prices up and supply disruptions are lifting crude. September consumer inflation of 5.58% came close to the bank's 6% upper bound.
20 October 2026 · South Asia
China Daily (China Watch)ChinaEnglish· state-affiliated
Seen from Beijing, a South-South fund should replace lost Western aid
In a piece published on 15 October 2026 on the China Watch platform of the state-owned China Daily, Zhao Wenjie and Zhu Lili of China Agricultural University and A K M Kanak Pervez of Rajshahi University in Bangladesh argue that the North-South development aid model is coming apart. On their reading of OECD data, total official development assistance fell 23.1% in 2025 against 2024 and in absolute terms is back to its 2015 level, with traditional donors such as the United States and the United Kingdom cutting sharply. UN estimates put the global extreme poverty rate at 10% in 2026, with sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East set to miss the 2030 target.
15 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
NairametricsNigeriaEnglish
Seen from Lagos, the central bank's 350bp cut is calibration, not easing
In a piece published in Nairametrics on 13 October, economist and banker Tope Fasoranti defends the Central Bank of Nigeria's decision on 22 September to cut the policy rate by 350 basis points to 23%. In his view, the headline cut is large but the effective impact is moderate. The rate corridor was narrowed from +50/−450 basis points to +50/−300, so the deposit-rate floor fell from 22% to 20%, a drop of only 200 basis points. The overnight rate closed the week of 25 September at 20.77%.
13 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Policy Center for the New South (PCNS)MoroccoEnglish
From Rabat, Arab neighbours foot more of the Iran war's bill
A policy paper dated 13 October by Hafez Ghanem, senior fellow at PCNS, calculates the cost of the first six months of the Iran war, from February to August 2026, for 12 countries. The method puts a monetary value on lost output and human losses. A death is priced at $12m and an injury at about $1.3m; physical damage and military spending are left out of the comparison. The headline finding is striking: the total cost to the Arab neighbours is $183.5bn, against $126.6bn for the three belligerents.
13 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
AfrobarometerNamibiaEnglish
Namibians welcome migrants as neighbours but not in the job market
In Afrobarometer Policy Paper No. 108, dated 8 October 2026, Namibia's national investigator Christiaan Keulder examines attitudes to migrant workers in a country expecting a resource boom from oil and green hydrogen investment. The data come from the migration module of the Round 10 survey conducted in Namibia in early 2024. The results are compared with 14 neighbours in the Southern African Development Community. According to the author, the country's last dedicated survey on the subject dates back to 2002.
8 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Nueva SociedadLatin America (Argentina)Spanish
From Buenos Aires, Milei failed on the economy and retreats to Malvinas
In a piece published in Nueva Sociedad on 2 October 2026, Argentine journalist and author Pablo Stefanoni weighs the economic promises of Javier Milei, now past the midpoint of his term. Milei had said inflation would be close to zero by this point; the August reading was 1.7% a month. The official poverty rate has risen again to 32.3%, and the author argues it would be higher if the calculation basket were updated. The country risk premium fell to its lowest since 2018 in July, then climbed back above 600 basis points to the year's peak. At the end of August, Uruguay stood at 65, Peru at 106 and Mexico at roughly 200 basis points. Milei attributes the gap to the risk of a Peronist return.
3 October 2026 · Americas
Fundação Getulio Vargas – Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV IBRE)BrazilPortuguese
FGV traces Brazil's high neutral rate to public spending, not abroad
In an 18-page study in the September macro bulletin of Rio de Janeiro-based FGV IBRE, announced on its blog on 1 October 2026, Silvia Matos, Caio Dianin and Samuel Pessôa recalculate Brazil's neutral interest rate. The neutral rate is the real interest rate that keeps inflation stable while the economy grows at its potential pace. Using 2 different methods, the authors arrive at estimates ranging from 6.7% to 8.1% between 2024 and August 2026, with an average of 7.5%. That is about 2.7 times the 2018–2019 average of 2.8% and the highest of the periods examined.
1 October 2026 · Americas
Institute for Global Dialogue (UNISA)South AfricaEnglish
South African scholar says US debt pulls G20 away from Global South
Ashraf Patel is a senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, part of the University of South Africa (UNISA). In an article published on 24 September 2026, he criticises the G20 meeting hosted by the US in Asheville, North Carolina. In the author's view, the meeting, run under US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, put US interests first and left the Global South's agenda out. Patel notes that US public debt has passed 40 trillion dollars. By his own calculation, that amounts to about 300,000 dollars of debt for every US household outside the richest 1%. In his view, this debt burden is passed on to the rest of the world through the dollar.
29 September 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)BangladeshBengali
Bangladesh's 20-taka fuel hike must be shared, says a Dhaka economist
Fahmida Khatun is a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) in Dhaka and was its executive director from 2017 to August 2026. In an interview with the Bengali daily Jatiyo Arthoniti on 26 September 2026, republished by CPD, she assesses the government's fuel price increase. The government raised the price of diesel, petrol, octane and kerosene by 20 taka a litre at once. According to the local press, diesel went from 115 to 135 taka. Khatun says an adjustment was necessary because oil prices, freight and insurance, and the taka's depreciation had widened the losses of the state company BPC. But she sees a one-off rise of 20 taka during a period of high inflation as a heavy blow. Tax cuts and a gradual transition, she says, should have been tried.
26 September 2026 · South Asia
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)South KoreaEnglish· state-affiliated
Beyond "Peak China": China's slowdown is a change of growth regime, not a collapse
Jiyoung Moon of KIEP's China team, in the 350th issue of KIEP Opinions dated 17 September, challenges the "Peak China" thesis that has gained ground in the West. In her view, the prolonged decline in the housing market, local government debt, youth unemployment and population decline show that the growth rate has passed its peak; but this does not mean the economy itself has peaked. Growth topped out at 14.2% in 2007 and is around 5% today; Beijing had already accepted the slowdown in 2012 with the "New Normal" concept. Total factor productivity has been slowing since 2008; returning to 7–10% growth with a model based on abundant labour, high savings and housing-infrastructure investment is no longer possible.
17 September 2026 · Asia-Pacific
SAIIA (South African Institute of International Affairs)South AfricaEnglish
SADC's financing gap: a 50 billion dollar industrialisation plan waits on an unratified fund
The author argues that the 46th Ordinary Summit, which SADC heads of state convened in Durban in August, adopted the theme of industrialisation, infrastructure and critical mineral processing for the second year running, but that there is no financing architecture behind this goal. The cost of the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP) runs up to 50 billion dollars; the target capital of the Regional Development Fund expected to finance it is about 13 billion dollars. Today member states cover less than 10 per cent of regional projects from their own budgets.
17 September 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Valdai Discussion ClubRussiaEnglish· state-affiliated
The long arm of the dollar: what the Adani case says about US jurisdiction
Timofeev examines the 275 million dollar settlement the US Treasury reached with Adani Enterprises on 18 May. The company imported LPG presented as originating in Oman and Iraq but actually sourced from Iran; all 32 transactions, totalling 192.1 million dollars, were paid in dollars. The author stresses that even when a transaction takes place entirely outside the US, payment passing through an American bank's correspondent account gives the US jurisdiction.
15 September 2026 · South Asia
Arab Center Washington DCUS (Arab perspective)English
The human and political cost of US aid cuts across the Arab world
Asi argues that the abrupt and unplanned US cuts to foreign aid are causing preventable deaths in the region's fragile societies. According to the data she cites, UNFPA was cut by 377 million dollars; the US funded 60 per cent of the agency's operations in Yemen. In Yemen 21 million people depend on external aid; the US gave Yemen 768 million dollars in 2024, half of the humanitarian response. Since the start of 2025, 453 health facilities have closed in Yemen.
10 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
VTechnology Geopolitics & AI
China-US Focus (China-United States Exchange Foundation)ChinaEnglish· state-affiliated
China-friendly outlet casts mineral export bans as a lever for technology
Writing in China-US Focus on 2 November, Wang Youming of Tsinghua University's BRICS economic think tank argues that great-power rivalry is driving a new wave of resource nationalism. He uses the term to mean producer countries attaching conditions to exports so that processing and technology move onto their own soil instead of raw materials leaving unprocessed. In his view, great-power demand for resources such as copper and lithium will rise by 400–600% over the next 10 years.
6 November 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)JapanEnglish
Washington's chip-equipment bill pushes Japan from rule-taker to rule-maker
In a strategic comment published in English on 19 October, JIIA research fellow Yoshiaki Takayama reads the MATCH bill now before the US Congress from Tokyo's vantage point. It was introduced in April 2026 as H.R. 8170 and S. 4281, and on 22 April the House Foreign Affairs Committee sent an amended text to the floor by 36 votes to 8. The mechanism is simple. Allies have, in principle, 150 days from entry into force to introduce chip-equipment controls equivalent to Washington's. Miss that deadline, and the Foreign Direct Product Rule applies to their own products. The covered facilities include SMIC, YMTC, CXMT, Huawei and Hua Hong, and the field engineering services of ASML and Tokyo Electron also fall under licensing.
20 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Lowy Institute (The Interpreter)AustraliaEnglish
Seen from Sydney, AI exports are not restarting East Asia's industrial ladder
Writing in the Lowy Institute's The Interpreter on 9 October 2026, trade economist Mia Mikic offers a critical reading of the World Bank's October report on East Asia and the Pacific. According to the report, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam exported $1.4 trillion of AI-linked goods in the 12 months to April. US imports of AI infrastructure goods rose by about 60% in early 2026 while its other imports fell by a quarter; Vietnam's and Malaysia's exports in this category reached at least twice their 2020–22 average.
10 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (Fulcrum)SingaporeEnglish
Southeast Asia needs AI exit options, not AI independence
Writing in Fulcrum, the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute's publication, on 5 October 2026, Zenobia Chan argues that Southeast Asian governments should abandon the goal of full AI independence. Chan teaches at Georgetown University and is a visiting fellow at ISEAS. In her view, most countries in the region cannot replicate the entire stack, from semiconductors and data centres to frontier models and software tools. Chasing that goal wastes resources and distracts from achievable aims. Instead she proposes AI resilience: the capacity to manage dependence on foreign technology through diversification and reversibility.
5 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Al Habtoor Research CentreUAEEnglish
From the UAE, clean energy pledges do not make Gulf AI data centres clean
An analysis dated 5 October 2026 by Habiba Diaaeldin of the UAE-based Al Habtoor Research Centre argues that the AI data centre boom and the green transition are not naturally aligned. The core argument is one of timing. A data centre goes up in 1–2 years, while transmission lines and clean generation take far longer, so unmet demand is filled by gas. Citing IEA data, the author notes that data centres consumed 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global demand. In the base case that rises to 945 TWh by 2030. To 2035, renewables add 450 TWh while gas grows by 175 TWh.
5 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
Latinoamérica21Latin America (Mexico)Spanish
A Latin American reading of Plan México: entry into the semiconductor chain may be a new dependency stuck at 6% of the value
In a piece published on 24 September in Latinoamérica21, Wendy Esther Morán Ortega, a researcher at the GIS Centre of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, argues that despite Plan México's promise of industrialisation in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, automotive and aerospace, it may lock the country into a low value-added assembly link in the United States' reorganisation of supply chains. According to the author, the plan aims to attract 10 billion dollars into assembly, test and packaging (ATP) activities; yet ATP accounts for only 6% of the value added in the semiconductor chain, while R&D takes 50–58% and wafer fabrication 24–36%. The author also notes that on 1 July 2026 the United States announced it would not renew the T-MEC (USMCA), introducing annual reviews until 2036 instead, which has increased Mexico's uncertainty.
24 September 2026 · Americas
Observer Research Foundation (ORF)IndiaEnglish
Self-Criticism from New Delhi: India's Chip Strategy Cannot See Beyond the Fab
The assessment published by ORF on 8 September 2026 lists the gaps in India's semiconductor push rather than celebrating it. The article reads the 1.275 trillion rupee budget of the Semicon 2.0 programme, approved by the cabinet on 15 July 2026, as a continuation of the earlier 76,000 crore rupee programme; cumulative commitments across the twelve approved semiconductor projects have reached 1.64 trillion rupees. It reports that electronics manufacturing rose from 1.9 trillion rupees in 2014-15 to 12 trillion rupees in 2024-25, that nine ATMP/OSAT projects have been approved, that 24 design-focused projects are being supported, that 105 companies have been given access to advanced EDA tools, and that 38,000 GPUs had been connected to the shared computing infrastructure as of March 2026.
8 September 2026 · South Asia
VIEnergy Politics & Supply Security
Business Recorder (editorial)PakistanEnglish
Business Recorder says Pakistan's real fuel burden is tax, not price
Business Recorder's 3 November editorial questions the daily fuel pricing Pakistan adopted on 17 July. The paper relays the calculation of an Attock Refinery executive: folding pre-war premiums into the petrol price costs refiners 35 rupees a litre, and the daily cuts made to lower the petroleum levy cost another 14 rupees. The total burden on domestic refineries thus reaches 49 rupees a litre. The executive warns that a decision taken without consulting the industry could erode lender confidence in refineries seeking finance.
3 November 2026 · South Asia
Dawn (editorial)PakistanEnglish
Dawn says the ministry, not the border, should answer for LPG shortages
Dawn's editorial of 30 October rejects the petroleum minister's defence blaming the LPG shortage on the closure of the Iranian border. The paper says the border has partly reopened but the shortage has not eased. Pakistan produces only a quarter of its needs and buys the rest mainly from Iran. The Iran war is also complicating seaborne imports. While the official price is about 280 rupees a kilo, market prices have reportedly reached 500–800 rupees.
30 October 2026 · South Asia
The Kathmandu Post (editorial)NepalEnglish
Kathmandu Post urges Nepal to revive the Budhigandaki dam and stay committed
In its 27 October editorial, The Kathmandu Post recalls that the 1,200 MW Budhigandaki, Nepal's largest reservoir hydropower project, was declared a 'national pride project' in fiscal 2012-13. It was due for completion in 2026-27, yet construction has still not begun. According to the paper, the Dahal government awarded the work to China Gezhouba Group without tender in May 2017. The Deuba government cancelled the deal 6 months later, and the Oli government handed it back to the same company in September 2018. In 2022 the state decided to build the project itself. Last year's budget proposed a public-private partnership, and this year Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle announced that a dedicated authority would be set up.
27 October 2026 · South Asia
The National — editorialUAE (Gulf)English
The National says ADNOC's 60 billion dirham push could lift UAE manufacturing
Abu Dhabi's The National writes in its 26 October editorial that the UAE's industrial strategy will be judged by the factories built, the skilled jobs created and the quality of locally made goods. At the 2nd Make it with ADNOC Forum in Abu Dhabi on 25 October, the national oil company set out more than 60 billion dirhams of local manufacturing opportunity to 2030. ADNOC also announced changes to procurement, supplier registration and in-country value rules that make it easier for manufacturers to bid for work.
26 October 2026 · Middle East and North Africa
ThisDay (editorial)NigeriaEnglish
ThisDay says Nigeria's power distributors profit from the metering gap
In its 26 October editorial, the Nigerian daily ThisDay writes that electricity distribution companies (DisCos) are issuing estimated bills to customers without prepaid meters. Those bills have risen by as much as 100% in a short period. According to the paper, the increases come even though power supply has not improved. Data from the regulator NERC for the end of August show the metering rate rising only from 62.4% to 63.1% in a month. The number of customers receiving new meters fell from 159,980 in July to 141,746 in August.
26 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Business Day (editorial board leader)South AfricaEnglish
Business Day says fuel relief must come before fiscal discipline
In a leader dated 20 October, Business Day, South Africa's leading business paper, urged Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to deliver fuel price relief in his 21 October budget statement. By the paper's count, petrol has risen about 50% and diesel more than 72% since the first sharp increases in April 2026. The leader argues that the shock has suppressed consumer demand and lifted input costs in mining and manufacturing. It also says the shock helped push the economy into contraction in the second quarter.
22 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
BusinessDay (Nigeria) — editorialNigeriaEnglish
BusinessDay warns Nigeria's fuel relief could reverse the subsidy reform
Lagos-based BusinessDay used its 22 October editorial to argue that Nigeria's return to intervention in the petrol price has exposed the weak link in its subsidy reform. The paper reports that the state oil company NNPC has extended its discount of 66 naira a litre to 31 October. A cap of 1,350 naira a litre on the wholesale cost is still under negotiation. The editorial recalls the IMF's 2021 estimate that the implicit fuel subsidy added roughly 1 percentage point of GDP to the budget deficit.
22 October 2026 · Sub-Saharan Africa
Daily Mirror (editorial)Sri LankaEnglish
Daily Mirror blames Sri Lanka's grid collapse on habits in coal procurement
In an unsigned editorial on 22 October, the Colombo-based independent daily Daily Mirror examines the nationwide blackout of 17 October, which lasted more than 3 hours. The outage also halted water treatment and mobile communications. The government approved 1-hour scheduled power cuts in 4 zones for 19–21 October. It blamed a fault at the Upper Kotmale hydropower plant and a grid imbalance. The National System Control Centre said this was why 3 coal units at Norochcholai tripped.
22 October 2026 · South Asia
Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP)IndiaEnglish
Seen from New Delhi, ethanol blending trims the oil bill less than claimed
In a piece published on 12 October by New Delhi-based CSEP, Reet Lath and Shyamasis Das argue that the mandate to blend 20% ethanol into petrol (E20) has not cut India's crude imports as much as official messaging implies. India imports about 90% of its crude needs and paid $137 billion for them in 2025. Official statements credit E20 with foreign-exchange savings of about $24 billion, or 1.97 lakh crore rupees, so far; the authors say the arithmetic behind that figure is unclear.
12 October 2026 · South Asia
Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI)PakistanEnglish· state-affiliated
Pakistan can find fuel in the Hormuz crisis but struggles to pay
ISSI's issue brief of 8 October treats Pakistan's dependence on imported fuel less as an energy-system problem than as a balance-of-payments one. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the petroleum group import bill rose 5.76% in fiscal 2025–26 to 16.86 billion dollars. Crude imports climbed 31.58%, while the LNG bill fell 36.10% to 2.22 billion dollars. The author does not pin that drop solely on the attacks on Qatar: in January 2026, with demand running below contracted volumes, surplus Qatari cargoes had already been diverted to other buyers.
8 October 2026 · South Asia
Takshashila InstitutionIndiaEnglish
From Bengaluru, BRICS and the SCO offer India clean tech, not oil
In Policy Advisory 2026-21 of 7 October 2026 from the Bengaluru-based Takshashila Institution, Bhumika Sevkani writes that energy security dominated the agendas of both the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS this year. Her thesis is plain: neither grouping can guarantee India oil and gas supply. India should use these platforms for clean technology cooperation, investment and supply chain diversification.
7 October 2026 · South Asia
IEEJ (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan)JapanEnglish
Seen from Tokyo, Australia's gas reservation cap erodes LNG buyers' security
A note published on 6 October 2026 by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) examines the Domestic Gas Reservation Bill, which the Australian government released in draft on 10 September. The bill places a domestic supply obligation on LNG exporters: up to 20% of exports must be sold into the home market, and the government is targeting roughly 200 PJ (petajoules, a unit of energy) of extra domestic supply a year. IEEJ finds the draft more flexible than the initial framework of May 2026. The obligation now starts on 1 January 2028 rather than 1 July 2027. Export licences will run for 20 to 50 years, the minister can set the rate anywhere between 0% and 20%, and the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) will recalculate domestic demand each year.
6 October 2026 · Asia-Pacific
Latinoamérica21Latin America (Costa Rica)Spanish / English
A former Costa Rican minister says oil drove the Venezuela intervention
Ottón Solís, Costa Rica's former minister of planning and economic policy, a former member of parliament and a faculty member at IE University, argues in a piece published by Latinoamérica21 on 4 October 2026 that economic interest, and oil in particular, lies behind the official justifications for military interventions. He traces the line back to the Spanish conquest and the Fourth Crusade of 1202–1204, with stops at the Carter Doctrine of 1980 and a former Fed chairman's 2007 remark that the Iraq war was largely about oil. In his view, after the Second World War 'bringing democracy' became the new justification, replacing religion and civilisation.
4 October 2026 · Americas
Gulf Research Center (GRC)GulfEnglish
Seen from the Gulf, reviving old pipelines is the way around Hormuz
In a commentary published on 29 September 2026, Naji Abi-Aad, senior energy adviser at the Gulf Research Center, draws the main lesson for the region from the Gulf conflict that began in February 2026. Oil that cannot be exported, he argues, has no value in being produced. With Hormuz effectively paralysed, crude leaving the region fell from about 20 million barrels a day to a small fraction of that. Throughout the crisis Saudi Arabia was the only producer able to sustain almost all its exports without passing through Hormuz. Iraq and the UAE could divert only part of their exports outside the strait, while Kuwait and Qatar remained wholly dependent on it. Abi-Aad does not find realistic US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's forecast in early September that Hormuz would become irrelevant within 2 years. For liquefied natural gas (LNG), he writes, there is no concrete alternative route in the next few years.
29 September 2026 · Middle East and North Africa