Brazil's 5-year risk premium rose from 111.80 basis points on 18 September to 121.12 on 21 September, and Mexico's from 79.04 to 84.77. In Argentina country risk stands at 533 basis points, a four-month high. All three countries have their calendars in the next fortnight.

Macro & Debt Markets Desk · 22 September 2026 · 14 min

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22/09MediumEuropeUK borrowing rises to 18.3 billion pounds in August as debt interest sets a record at 8.8 billion 22/09LowTürkiye and Its NeighbourhoodThe consumer confidence index rises to 91.9 in September, its highest level since July 2018 21/09MediumAmericasArgentina's country risk climbs to 533 basis points as an IMF mission arrives in Buenos Aires for the third review 21/09MediumEurasiaUnited Russia takes as many as 355 seats in the 450-seat Duma on 59.32% turnout: a constitutional majority secured for tax and budget decisions 21/09LowEuropeBundesbank: the German economy stalls in the third quarter, employment fell by 14,000 in July 21/09MediumTürkiye and Its NeighbourhoodThe dollar reaches an all-time high of 48.82 lira as the BIST 100 falls 1.92% at midday to 13,028.71 points 21/09MediumAmericasThe Fed's Goolsbee: if inflation is coming from demand, the rate response will be sharper and front-loaded 19/09HighEuropeFrance-Germany 10-year yield spread passes 100 basis points for the first time since 2012 17/09MediumAmericasArgentina's economy contracted 0.6% in the second quarter and unemployment hit 7.9%, the highest since 2021 17/09HighEuropeBank of England holds the policy rate at 3.75% as three of nine members vote for a rise to 4.00%

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IVMacro & Debt·Analysis·Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

Inside Türkiye's rising confidence index: spending is being pulled forward while the energy shock builds up at the producer

Consumer confidence rose to 91.9 in September, its highest since July 2018. Yet the only sub-index above the 100 threshold is the propensity to spend on durable goods; the index of the current financial situation is the only component that fell.

Türkiye & Neighbourhood Desk · 22 September 2026 · 10 min

IVMacro & Debt·Analysis·Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

Three central banks tighten in the same week: answering a supply shock with rates, and Türkiye's carry flows

The Fed raised rates on 16 September and the ECB on 10 September; the Bank of Japan is expected to hike on 18 September. As global rates rise, Türkiye's real rate differential is narrowing of its own accord.

Macro & Debt Markets Desk · 16 September 2026 · 9 min

Decision modules

From the latest report: Latin America was repriced before it was refinanced: risk premiums widened together on 21 September · 22 September 2026

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Probabilities

Scenarios

Scenario	Probability	Trigger	Market impact
H1Uncertainty persists, premiums stay in a high band	50%	The supply-versus-demand argument inside the Fed is not settled, the Argentine review drags on and the USMCA round produces no concrete tariff reduction.	Emerging market premiums become entrenched at their new levels; the cost of refinancing runs high across the whole bloc.
H2The calendar passes cleanly	30%	Argentina makes its 25 September payment and the review concludes positively, the 28 September Washington round yields a tariff reduction, and the Brazilian election produces a market-friendly fiscal framework.	The widening of 21 September is reversed; the bloc-level risk premium moves back towards early September levels.
H3The demand diagnosis wins	20%	US data confirm that inflation is coming from demand and the Fed shifts to a sharper, more front-loaded path.	The dollar discount rate shifts upwards; the bloc-level repricing deepens and country-specific stories fall into the background.

Module A

Constraints Matrix

STRUCTURAL AVG 4.0 · TACTICAL AVG 3.0Structural constraints dominate: the outcome is set more by these limits than by the actors' preferences.

Hard structural constraintspersistent · beyond the actors' will

The unknowable dollar discount rate · United States
5/5
There is open division within the Fed's leadership over whether inflation comes from supply or demand; as of 18 September the 10-year yield is 5.01 per cent and the 30-year 5.34 per cent.
Argentina's payment calendar
4/5
583.3 million SDR, about 803 million dollars, falls due to the Fund on 25 September; 15.8 billion dollars have been disbursed under the programme to date.
The USMCA has not been renewed · United States
4/5
The United States refused on 1 July 2026 to renew the agreement in its current form; tariffs of 50 per cent on steel and aluminium and 25 per cent on non-compliant vehicles remain in place.
The gap in the primary surplus target
3/5
Argentina's 2026 primary surplus target is 1.4 per cent against a government projection of 1.3 per cent; the difference is about 456 million dollars and the first-half outturn was 0.6 per cent.

Tactical frictiontemporary · eases over time

A crowded two-week calendar weeks
4/5
The Banxico decision on 24 September, Argentina's payment to the Fund on 25 September, the Washington negotiating round on 28 September and the Brazilian election on 4 October follow one another.
Debate over a pre-election rate decision weeks
3/5
Copom was expected to cut the Selic from 14 per cent to 13.75 per cent two and a half weeks before the 4 October election; the outcome is not verified in this record.
Asymmetry in data updates days
2/5
Only 7 of the 15 countries on the panel published a 21 September close; the series for the remaining 8 stops on 18 September and no comparison can be made.

Module B

Signal vs Noise

SIGNAL 60% · NOISE 40%

SIGNAL
Six of the seven countries producing an observation on 21 September widened together
Brazil rose 8.3%, Israel 7.4%, Mexico 7.2%, Indonesia 6.7%, Saudi Arabia 6.6% and Egypt 1.6%, while China widened by only 0.9%.
Data: Türkiye 5-year CDS ›Investing.com — Brazil 5-year CDS historical data
SIGNAL
Argentina diverged from the global trend
On 21 September US equity markets gained 1.5–2.3% while Argentine bonds fell about 0.5% and country risk rose to 533 basis points.
The Rio Times — Argentina country risk rises to 533 on a sixth day
SIGNAL
The split in diagnosis inside the Fed was stated openly
Goolsbee said a single increase could suffice under a supply shock and that demand-driven inflation would require a sharper path; Warsh said the labour market need not be damaged.
Data: US 10-year yield ›Investing.com (Reuters) — Fed's Goolsbee says inflation may require faster rate hikes
NOISE
Emerging markets widened while developed markets stayed calm
On the panel the series for Türkiye, the United States, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, South Africa and the United Kingdom stop on 18 September; there is no observation for 21 September, so the comparison cannot be supported by data.
Investing.com — Türkiye 5-year CDS historical data
NOISE
Brazil's premium has reached crisis levels
121.12 basis points is historically not a crisis band; what is meaningful is not the level but the coincidence of the direction with the 4 October electoral calendar.
AS/COA — Poll tracker for Brazil's 2026 presidential election

Module C

Asset-Class and Positioning Implications

Asset class	Exposure	Transmission channel	H1	H2	H3	Expected	Conviction	Horizon	What to watch
Credit	Emerging market sovereign risk premium	Uncertainty about the dollar discount rate feeds into the term premium across the bloc	−	++	−−	−0.30	●●●	0–3 months	The first common observation day on the panel after 21 September and whether the bloc move continues
Sovereign debt	Extended-maturity US Treasury yield	The split diagnosis over the source of inflation is feeding the term premium	−	+	−−	−0.60	●●●	3–12 months	The path of the 10- and 30-year yields in the H.15 release
FX	Latin American currencies	The election and programme calendar meeting the dollar rate in the same fortnight	−	+	−−	−0.60	●●●	0–3 months	The Banxico decision on 24 September and Argentina's payment on 25 September
Credit	Türkiye external debt risk premium	Türkiye carries the move in the basket it is priced within even without country-specific news	−	+	−−	−0.60	●●●	0–3 months	Whether Türkiye's 5-year risk premium rises above 232.80 basis points

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