MediumVII Reinsurance & Specialty Risk30 October 2026, Friday

SCOR's first January quotes point to lower European catastrophe pricing again

SCOR said on 30 October that the 1 January 2027 renewal had started very late. The few European catastrophe quotes it has seen show price falls ranging from high single digits to low double digits. Its third-quarter P&C combined ratio deteriorated by 3.2 points to 84.1%.

Location: PARIS

Jean-Paul Conoscente, CEO of SCOR's P&C reinsurance arm, described the January renewal as "very late" on the 30 October results call; many submissions have yet to reach reinsurers. The few European catastrophe quotes seen so far point to declines from high single digits to low double digits. According to Reinsurance News, Marsh Re's European index fell 15% at 1 January 2026, so the pace is easing slightly but the direction is unchanged. Price divergence also persists: increases are significant in loss-hit marine, energy and war lines, while pressure is clear in loss-free lines.

Margin pressure is starting to show in the third-quarter figures. The P&C insurance service result fell 15% to 216 million euros. The new-business contractual service margin, the stock that will turn into future profit, fell by more than 16% to 142 million euros. The combined ratio came in at 84.1%, with the natural catastrophe ratio at just 9.1%. Net income fell 4.8% to 206 million euros; nine-month net income was 603 million euros, against 642 million a year earlier.

The offset comes from investments. The reinvestment yield rose to 5% at 30 September from 4.3% at the end of June, and the return on invested assets climbed from 3.3% to 3.7%. CEO Thierry Léger said the effect of competition would show up in results over the next one to two years, and linked high volumes at broker facilities to the softening market. SCOR's primary insurance arm is exiting US liability and space lines. The company will present its new strategic plan on 3 December; its Solvency ratio is 221%.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Despite a quiet catastrophe year, the 84.1% combined ratio shows falling prices starting to eat into reinsurer margins. The rise in reinvestment yield to 5% offsets part of that loss and widens companies' room to concede on price. The most likely path is that the decline in European catastrophe pricing slows a little from last year's 15%, but does not stop.

Likely effects

European cat reinsurancePositiveWeeks
A range from high single digits to low double digits signals that European insurers' protection costs will fall again in January, after a 15% decline last year.
Reinsurer marginsNegative1–6 months
The 15% fall in the insurance service result and Léger's one-to-two-year warning show the pressure will reach results with a lag.
War and marine linesNegative1–6 months
Significant price increases continue in marine, energy and war lines; the broader decline does not reach the transport and cover costs of these lines.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Decline continues at a slower pace60%
European catastrophe pricing settles in January in a band from high single to low double digits, and terms are largely maintained.
Watch: Marsh Re's European index in early January and Howden's renewal report
2
Late renewal deepens the decline25%
Late submissions compress competition, and the decline approaches or exceeds last year's 15%.
Watch: European quote ranges in late November and Munich Re's commentary on 12 November
3
Discipline halts the slide15%
Reinsurers react to margin erosion and the decline stays in single digits. A major catastrophe in November or December would also overturn this reading.
Watch: Growth and margin targets in SCOR's 3 December strategic plan

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

P&C combined ratio▼ 84.1%
Reinvestment yield▲ 5%
Net income (Q3)▼ €206m

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources