MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt4 September 2026, Friday · 15:30 TRT (UTC+3)
US adds 162,000 jobs in August as July figure is revised into positive territory
Data coming in at nearly three times expectations, together with upward revisions, strengthened the Fed's case for a hike.
According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on 4 September, non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The July figure was revised from minus 23,000 to plus 21,000, and the June figure from plus 20,000 to plus 31,000. The information sector, however, lost 23,000 jobs.
Chase's pre-meeting assessment of the Fed noted that the market expectation had been around 53,000. The reversal of the July figure from negative to positive weakened the argument that the labour market was collapsing and provided the data backdrop that made it easier for the Fed to tighten against energy-driven inflation.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
August's gain of 162,000 jobs and the upward revision of July to positive territory weakened the argument that the labour market is collapsing and gave the Fed a data basis for tightening against energy-driven inflation. Still, one strong print is not a trend: revisions are volatile and the loss of 23,000 jobs in information points to sectoral weakness. The most likely path is moderate but positive job growth with the Fed maintaining a tight stance.
Likely effects
- Dollar interest ratesNegativeWeeks
A print nearly three times the consensus strengthens pricing of a Fed hike, pushing up both near-term and extended-maturity dollar rates and tightening global financing conditions.
- Türkiye portfolio flowsNegative1–6 months
Higher dollar rates, reinforced by strong US data, reduce portfolio appetite for emerging markets; this can put pressure on lira assets and on Türkiye's external borrowing costs.
- US household incomePositiveWeeks
Unemployment holding at 4.1% and rising employment support household income against the erosion of purchasing power by energy prices.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Moderate positive hiring, tight Fed60%
Job growth stays positive in the coming months and unemployment is flat; the Fed maintains its tight stance against energy-driven inflation.
Watch: September employment report and unemployment staying around 4.1%
- 2Renewed weakness and downward revision30%
The August figure is revised down and losses in information spread to other sectors; markets scale back expectations of further tightening.
Watch: Revision to the August figure and unemployment rising above 4.1%
- 3Accelerating hiring and wage pressure10%
Job growth gathers pace and wages accelerate; inflation spreading into the demand channel pushes the Fed towards more aggressive tightening.
Watch: Acceleration in hourly earnings and a rise in core inflation
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.