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TALAYINSIGHT

Risk & volatilityIII Conflict & Defence

VIX volatility index

30-day expected volatility derived from S&P 500 options (Cboe).

16.61

index · daily · 4 Nov

1D
−20.3%
30D
+7.0%
1Y
—

Last 12 months · markers link to event pages

12.5317.5822.6327.6832.7302/0321/0409/0629/0716/0904/1117 September 2026 — Fed dot plot median for 2026 rises to 4.00-4.25% while the 10-year yield eases from 5.04% to 4.94%128 September 2026 — US ten-year Treasury yield climbs to a 19-year high216 October 2026 — Warsh gives no rate signal in Bangkok and October hike odds fall322 October 2026 — US 10-year yield slips below 5% as tech sell-off deepens4
  1. 117/09 · Fed dot plot median for 2026 rises to 4.00-4.25% while the 10-year yield eases from 5.04% to 4.94%
  2. 228/09 · US ten-year Treasury yield climbs to a 19-year high
  3. 316/10 · Warsh gives no rate signal in Bangkok and October hike odds fall
  4. 422/10 · US 10-year yield slips below 5% as tech sell-off deepens

Why it matters

The fastest gauge of whether a geopolitical shock is producing stress in financial markets.

Threshold · > 30.00

Above 30 is the zone where risk aversion becomes broad-based and cross-asset correlations rise.

Normal · warning zone > 22.00

Last 30 observations
DateValuevs previous observation
4 November 202616.61−4.22
3 November 202620.83−0.32
2 November 202621.15+1.73
30 October 202619.42+2.22
29 October 202617.20+0.29
28 October 202616.91−0.61
27 October 202617.52−0.87
26 October 202618.39−1.06
23 October 202619.45+0.42
22 October 202619.03+2.35
21 October 202616.68−0.63
20 October 202617.31−1.13
19 October 202618.44−1.55
16 October 202619.99+3.53
15 October 202616.46−0.41
14 October 202616.87+1.60
13 October 202615.27+0.06
12 October 202615.21+0.37
9 October 202614.84−0.57
8 October 202615.41+0.33
7 October 202615.08+0.07
6 October 202615.01−0.51
5 October 202615.52+0.21
2 October 202615.31−1.08
1 October 202616.39+0.05
30 September 202616.34+0.30
29 September 202616.04−0.03
28 September 202616.07+1.20
25 September 202614.87−0.80
24 September 202615.67—