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TALAYINSIGHT

Sovereign debtIV Macro & Debt

US 10-year yield

US Treasury 10-year yield; the discount rate of global asset pricing.

4.90

yield % · daily · 4 Nov

1D
−5 bp
30D
−41 bp
1Y
—

Last 12 months · markers link to event pages

3.924.304.685.065.4402/0317/0408/0628/0716/0904/1117 September 2026 — Fed dot plot median for 2026 rises to 4.00-4.25% while the 10-year yield eases from 5.04% to 4.94%121 September 2026 — The Fed's Goolsbee: if inflation is coming from demand, the rate response will be sharper and front-loaded223 September 2026 — US Treasury sells $70 billion of 5-year notes at 5.033%; after hot PMIs the 10-year yield hits 5.10%, its highest since 2007324 September 2026 — India's Sensex falls 1,247.71 points to 73,580; rupee presses against the 96 threshold as Brent tops $102 and the US 10-year yield exceeds 5.11%424 September 2026 — US Treasury sells 44 billion dollars of 7-year notes at 5.085%: highest yield since April 1993 as indirect demand falls to 57.2%524 September 2026 — No joint statement at Xi–Trump summit: tariff truce extended by just 2 months from 10 November to 10 January, no new decisions on chips or rare earths625 September 2026 — Michigan consumer sentiment at a 4-month low of 48.1, 1-year inflation expectations jump to 4.6%; US 30-year yield rises to 5.50%727 September 2026 — Bessent urges Fed flexibility on rates, citing AI productivity828 September 2026 — US ten-year Treasury yield climbs to a 19-year high929 September 2026 — US long-dated yield holds above 5.5% despite Treasury buybacks1030 September 2026 — Softer US inflation erodes the odds of an October rate rise111 October 2026 — US Treasuries pull back from their peak as two-year yield drops 10 basis points122 October 2026 — Logan seeks 50 more basis points while most of the Fed waits135 October 2026 — Nasdaq hits record as Treasury yields touch 24-year high146 October 2026 — Fed's Schmid and Daly keep the door open to hikes despite high yields157 October 2026 — Fed minutes point to one more rate rise before year-end167 October 2026 — US ten-year auction clears at the highest yield in a quarter-century1714 October 2026 — US inflation climbs to 3.7%, putting an October hike back in play1815 October 2026 — US producer inflation jumps to 6.3%, yet Treasury yields fall1916 October 2026 — Warsh gives no rate signal in Bangkok and October hike odds fall2019 October 2026 — Barclays now expects Fed hikes in both December and January2120 October 2026 — US pending home sales sink to their lowest since 20012220 October 2026 — Thirty-year Treasury yield slips below the 20-year point2322 October 2026 — US 10-year yield slips below 5% as tech sell-off deepens2423 October 2026 — US firms raise selling prices at fastest pace since 20222524 October 2026 — Fed expected to hold on Wednesday as markets price a December hike2627 October 2026 — Domestic buyers displaced foreigners at the US two-year auction2730 October 2026 — Logan calls for at least two more hikes as December odds slip to 76%282 November 2026 — US manufacturing beats forecasts as input prices stay high293 November 2026 — Treasury yields climb on election day ahead of the refunding statement304 November 2026 — US Treasury moves seven-year notes from monthly to quarterly new issues31
  1. 117/09 · Fed dot plot median for 2026 rises to 4.00-4.25% while the 10-year yield eases from 5.04% to 4.94%
  2. 221/09 · The Fed's Goolsbee: if inflation is coming from demand, the rate response will be sharper and front-loaded
  3. 323/09 · US Treasury sells $70 billion of 5-year notes at 5.033%; after hot PMIs the 10-year yield hits 5.10%, its highest since 2007
  4. 424/09 · India's Sensex falls 1,247.71 points to 73,580; rupee presses against the 96 threshold as Brent tops $102 and the US 10-year yield exceeds 5.11%
  5. 524/09 · US Treasury sells 44 billion dollars of 7-year notes at 5.085%: highest yield since April 1993 as indirect demand falls to 57.2%
  6. 624/09 · No joint statement at Xi–Trump summit: tariff truce extended by just 2 months from 10 November to 10 January, no new decisions on chips or rare earths
  7. 725/09 · Michigan consumer sentiment at a 4-month low of 48.1, 1-year inflation expectations jump to 4.6%; US 30-year yield rises to 5.50%
  8. 827/09 · Bessent urges Fed flexibility on rates, citing AI productivity
  9. 928/09 · US ten-year Treasury yield climbs to a 19-year high
  10. 1029/09 · US long-dated yield holds above 5.5% despite Treasury buybacks
  11. 1130/09 · Softer US inflation erodes the odds of an October rate rise
  12. 1201/10 · US Treasuries pull back from their peak as two-year yield drops 10 basis points
  13. 1302/10 · Logan seeks 50 more basis points while most of the Fed waits
  14. 1405/10 · Nasdaq hits record as Treasury yields touch 24-year high
  15. 1506/10 · Fed's Schmid and Daly keep the door open to hikes despite high yields
  16. 1607/10 · Fed minutes point to one more rate rise before year-end
  17. 1707/10 · US ten-year auction clears at the highest yield in a quarter-century
  18. 1814/10 · US inflation climbs to 3.7%, putting an October hike back in play
  19. 1915/10 · US producer inflation jumps to 6.3%, yet Treasury yields fall
  20. 2016/10 · Warsh gives no rate signal in Bangkok and October hike odds fall
  21. 2119/10 · Barclays now expects Fed hikes in both December and January
  22. 2220/10 · US pending home sales sink to their lowest since 2001
  23. 2320/10 · Thirty-year Treasury yield slips below the 20-year point
  24. 2422/10 · US 10-year yield slips below 5% as tech sell-off deepens
  25. 2523/10 · US firms raise selling prices at fastest pace since 2022
  26. 2624/10 · Fed expected to hold on Wednesday as markets price a December hike
  27. 2727/10 · Domestic buyers displaced foreigners at the US two-year auction
  28. 2830/10 · Logan calls for at least two more hikes as December odds slip to 76%
  29. 2902/11 · US manufacturing beats forecasts as input prices stay high
  30. 3003/11 · Treasury yields climb on election day ahead of the refunding statement
  31. 3104/11 · US Treasury moves seven-year notes from monthly to quarterly new issues

Why it matters

Mortgages, corporate debt and emerging-market eurobonds are priced off this tenor.

Threshold · > 5.25

Above 5.25% is a zone of marked pressure on equity valuations and emerging-market borrowing.

Normal · warning zone > 5.00

Last 30 observations
DateValuevs previous observation
4 November 20264.90−0.05
3 November 20264.95+0.04
2 November 20264.91−0.03
30 October 20264.94−0.04
29 October 20264.98−0.07
28 October 20265.05+0.06
27 October 20264.99−0.01
26 October 20265.000.00
23 October 20265.00+0.04
22 October 20264.96−0.17
21 October 20265.13+0.01
20 October 20265.12−0.03
19 October 20265.15+0.06
16 October 20265.09−0.01
15 October 20265.10−0.09
14 October 20265.19−0.02
13 October 20265.21−0.03
9 October 20265.24+0.02
8 October 20265.22−0.06
7 October 20265.28+0.01
6 October 20265.27−0.04
5 October 20265.31+0.03
2 October 20265.28+0.04
1 October 20265.24−0.05
30 September 20265.29+0.03
29 September 20265.26+0.02
28 September 20265.24+0.07
25 September 20265.17−0.01
24 September 20265.18+0.07
23 September 20265.11—