MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence23 September 2026, Wednesday
US withholds UN General Assembly visa from Sudanese army leader Burhan; visa reportedly tied to 90-day ceasefire plan
On 22 September the US State Department declared that neither the Sudanese army (SAF) nor the RSF represents legitimate rule and did not grant Burhan a visa for the UN General Assembly. On 23 September two sources said the visa had been made conditional on accepting a US-proposed 90-day ceasefire.
According to The National's report of 22 September, State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said the conduct of the two warring parties' leaders had rendered them unfit to govern the country and that the US would raise the cost for all parties of continuing the war. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan had been scheduled to address the UN General Assembly; Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for UN Secretary-General Guterres, expressed deep concern over the visa delay and called on the US to comply with its headquarters agreement obligations. Both Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo are under US sanctions.
According to a Sudanese diplomatic source and a Western analyst cited by Daily Nation on 23 September, the US made Burhan's attendance conditional on his accepting the 90-day ceasefire proposed by Massad Boulos, the senior US adviser on Arab and African affairs; the army had raised reservations about the proposal in July. The Sudanese diplomatic source said Burhan rejected an 'all or nothing' approach; a government source described the visa denial as a breach of the UN Charter and international law. Foreign Minister Mohieldin Salim will represent Sudan at the General Assembly. The war, which began in April 2023, is described by the UN as the world's largest humanitarian crisis; the visa conditionality has not been officially confirmed by the US.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
By refusing to recognise either side in Sudan as legitimate and restricting Burhan's international stage through the visa, Washington is using leverage for a 90-day ceasefire. The army's July reservations and its 'all or nothing' response indicate that acceptance will be difficult in the near term. The most likely outcome is continued diplomatic tension with no significant change on the front lines.
Likely effects
- Ceasefire diplomacyUncertainWeeks
Visa conditionality puts reputational pressure on the army; however, the Port Sudan government framing it as a breach of sovereignty may make the 90-day plan harder to sell to domestic opinion.
- The UN and multilateralismNegative1–6 months
Guterres's warning to the US, citing the headquarters agreement, shows that the host country's use of visa powers as political leverage has opened a new source of tension within the UN.
- Türkiye and the regionUncertain1–6 months
The US refusal to recognise either side as legitimate requires regional countries, including Türkiye, which maintains diplomatic contact with the Port Sudan government, to position themselves more carefully in mediation and aid channels.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Tension persists, no ceasefire60%
Burhan continues to reject the proposal, the US steps up sanctions pressure and fighting continues on the front lines.
Watch: Any new US Treasury sanctions announcement against Sudanese parties
- 2Conditional negotiation30%
The army opens up to talks on condition that the proposal is amended, and indirect contacts begin on the 90-day plan.
Watch: Announcement of a new meeting between Boulos and a Sudanese delegation
- 3Ceasefire accepted10%
The parties agree to a brief humanitarian ceasefire.
Watch: Formal approval of a ceasefire text by the SAF and the RSF
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Proposed ceasefire length▲ 90 days