MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence27 September 2026, Sunday
Kabul says it killed 28 militants who crossed from Pakistan into Nuristan
Afghanistan's Ministry of Defence said on 27 September that it had killed 28 militants who crossed the border from Pakistan into Nuristan and captured 32 others. Pakistan's Information Ministry dismissed the claims as baseless. A day earlier, the two armies had exchanged artillery fire in Kurram.
According to Al Jazeera, the Taliban administration alleged that those killed were former Afghan security personnel recruited by Pakistan's intelligence services with promises of jobs and asylum abroad. Kabul also claimed that ISIS members were among the 32 people captured. Pakistan's Ministry of Information and Broadcasting rejected the allegations in firm terms and called on the Taliban to take verifiable action against militant groups on their own soil. The casualty figures could not be verified by independent sources.
Daily Pakistan reported on 26 September that Afghan forces fired mortars and heavy weapons from positions in Nangarhar and Paktia at Pakistani border posts in the Kurram area. Pakistan responded by shelling numerous positions across the border. The clashes followed a Pakistani air strike on 21 September, in which Islamabad said it killed 28 militants, and strikes on 10 drone sites on 24 September. The UN had confirmed that 3 civilians were killed in the 21 September strike.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Since 21 September there has been an air strike, strikes on drone sites, an artillery duel in Kurram and now the fighting in Nuristan. The two neighbours have clashed on four separate fronts in a single week. By pointing the finger directly at Pakistan's services, Kabul has moved from mutual denial to open accusation, which marks a more dangerous phase.
Likely effects
- Border securityNegativeWeeks
Incidents in Kurram, Nuristan and along the Chaman line in the same week show that the conflict is not confined to a single crossing and that the front is widening.
- Pakistan's economyNegative1–6 months
Tension on the western border could add pressure on security spending and trade disruption in Pakistan while its IMF review is still under way.
- Regional diplomacyNegativeWeeks
The exchange of accusations makes ceasefire efforts by mediating countries harder, and the 3 civilian deaths on 21 September have drawn closer UN attention.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Low-intensity conflict continues60%
Cross-border fire and limited air strikes go on for weeks without a full-scale ground operation.
Watch: New statements on clashes in Kurram and Nuristan
- 2Escalation30%
Pakistan carries out wider air strikes deep inside Afghanistan and Kabul retaliates with a concerted attack on border posts.
Watch: Pakistani military statements on new air strikes in Afghanistan
- 3De-escalation through mediation10%
Regional mediators open a new round of ceasefire talks.
Watch: Announcement of ceasefire talks between Islamabad and Kabul
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Killed, per Kabul▼ 28
- Captured, per Kabul▼ 32
- Border clashes in 7 days▼ 4 incidents