MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt24 September 2026, Thursday
Argentina's country risk rises for eight straight days to 566 basis points; 803 million dollars due to the IMF on 25 September
JP Morgan's Argentina country risk index rose from 555 to 566 basis points on 23 September, its eighth daily increase. The government will cover the 803 million dollar IMF payment due on 25 September from the Treasury's deposits at the central bank, which will fall to 1.54 billion dollars.
According to The Rio Times' daily guide dated 24 September, Argentina's country risk rose to 566 basis points on 23 September from 555 the previous day, its eighth consecutive increase. The same day the wholesale dollar closed at 1,516 pesos, at the top of its one-year range, the parallel rate rose to the 1,540–1,560 peso band and the Merval index fell 0.94%. According to an Infobae analysis dated 24 September, the index has climbed to this level from 400 basis points at the end of July, with trades seen in the 578–580 range; the five reasons cited by analysts are the central bank cutting its foreign currency purchases to a daily average of 13 million dollars in September, rising US interest rates, uncertainty over the 2027 election, the start of the campaign period and weak economic activity.
According to an Infobae report dated 23 September, the government will pay the 803 million dollar IMF principal instalment due on 25 September by buying special drawing rights with the Treasury's foreign currency deposits at the central bank; these deposits, which stood at 2.341 billion dollars on 18 September, will fall to 1.538 billion dollars after the payment. The central bank's gross reserves stand at 49.414 billion dollars; total external obligations in September amount to 1.452 billion dollars, with 3.826 billion dollars projected for September–December. The IMF mission may release a tranche of around 1 billion dollars at the end of the third review, which began on 21 September. The index's intraday level on 24 September was reported at 570, but the closing value could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Argentina's problem is not payment capacity but the halt in reserve accumulation: the IMF instalment can be paid, but the Treasury's deposits are falling to 1.5 billion dollars while the central bank buys only 13 million dollars a day. The rise in country risk from 400 to 566 reflects the combined pricing of US interest rates and domestic politics. The most likely path is for the IMF review to be completed with additional reserve conditions and for risk to stay in the 500–600 band.
Likely effects
- Argentina external financingNegative1–6 months
Dollar bonds yielding above 10% narrow the window for new international issuance and make the Treasury more dependent on the IMF tranche.
- PesoNegativeWeeks
The wholesale rate sitting at 1,516, the top of its one-year range, signals that pressure on the currency band will rise as reserve accumulation slows.
- Emerging market credit spreadsNegativeWeeks
The rise in Argentina's spread shows that high-risk emerging market debt is being repriced as US yields exceed 5%; it is a similar pressure channel for countries with large external financing needs such as Türkiye.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Review completed with conditions55%
The IMF concludes the third review with flexibility on the reserve target and a new purchase commitment, around 1 billion dollars is released and risk fluctuates in the 500–600 band.
Watch: An IMF mission announcement of a staff-level agreement
- 2Risk breaks above 60030%
If US yields keep rising and central bank purchases remain weak, the index climbs above 600 and the peso presses against the top of its band.
Watch: A country risk index close above 600 basis points
- 3Rapid recovery15%
If reserve purchases accelerate and global yields retreat, risk falls below 500.
Watch: The central bank's daily foreign currency purchases exceeding 100 million dollars
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Argentina country risk▲ 566 bp (+11)
- IMF payment (25 Sep)▼ $803 million
- Treasury FX deposits▼ $1.538 billion
- Wholesale USD/ARS▲ 1,516