MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt25 September 2026, Friday
Argentina's country risk jumps 31 points in a day to 609, a 6-month high; around $795 million paid to the IMF, reserves fall to $48.2 billion
JP Morgan's Argentina country risk index rose from 578 to 609 basis points on 25 September, exceeding 600 for the first time since April; it touched 628 intraday. On the same day the Treasury made a payment to the IMF of $793–795 million depending on the source, and gross reserves fell by $600 million to $48,245 million.
According to a 25 September Perfil report, country risk opened the day at 578 basis points, rose as high as 628 and closed at 609; the daily increase was 31 points (5.4%), and the cumulative rise in September 18.9%. Infobae gave the same close with a 30-point rise and wrote that the level was the highest since 7 April. Dollar-denominated Bonar and Global bonds fell 1.2% on average, the S&P Merval dropped 1.6% to 2,893,751 points, and the wholesale dollar closed 0.4% higher at 1,525.50 pesos. Crónica partly attributed the pressure to US Treasury yields rising above 5.
According to Infobae, the Treasury paid $795 million to the IMF on 25 September; El Cronista gave the amount as $793 million, while Infobae's 23 September preview put it at around $800 million. The payment was made from the Treasury's foreign currency deposits at the central bank, which stood at $2,230 million on 22 September. Gross reserves fell by $600 million to $48,245 million; according to Infobae, the central bank did not intervene in the foreign exchange market on 25 September. According to El Cronista, a further $791 million is due to the IMF in November and $391 million in December; an IMF mission is in Buenos Aires for the 3rd review of the April 2025 programme, and a $1,000 million tranche is expected if it is approved.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The IMF payment was made without a hitch, but the market did not price it as relief: country risk rose 31 points to 609 on payment day, and the September increase reached 18.9%. With reserves down to $48.2 billion and a further $1,182 million due to the IMF by year-end, the $1,000 million tranche from the 3rd review becomes critical. Part of the pressure comes from US yields, meaning domestic measures alone may not be enough.
Likely effects
- Debt market accessNegative1–6 months
Country risk above 600 effectively closes Argentina's window for affordable borrowing on international markets and forces payments to be met from reserves.
- Currency and reservesNegativeWeeks
The central bank did not intervene on 25 September; as reserves fell by $600 million the wholesale dollar rose to 1,525.50 pesos, and pressure on the currency persists.
- TürkiyeNegativeWeeks
The joint rise in emerging market risk premia as US yields climb above 5% creates a transmission channel pushing in the same direction on Türkiye's CDS and external borrowing costs.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Review approved, risk flat55%
The IMF approves the 3rd review and the $1,000 million tranche arrives; country risk fluctuates in the 550–650 band.
Watch: IMF Executive Board decision on the 3rd review
- 2Risk exceeds 65030%
US yields keep rising, the bond sell-off deepens and reserve losses accelerate.
Watch: US 10-year yield and daily reserve data
- 3Recovery15%
Global yields retreat and country risk falls below 550.
Watch: JP Morgan country risk index returning below 550
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Argentina country risk▼ +31 bp → 609
- Gross reserves (−$600 million)▼ $48.2 billion
- S&P Merval▼ −1.6%
Sources
- Perfil — Country risk climbs to 609 points amid broad fall in dollar bonds
- Infobae — Market day: country risk exceeded 600 basis points, a 6-month high
- Infobae — The government makes a new payment to the IMF today
- El Cronista — IMF mission: central bank meetings, debt payment
- Crónica — Country risk exceeds 600 points, a 6-month high