MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints10 September 2026, Thursday
European TTF gas price hits 81 euros/MWh, its highest level since December 2022
Europe is paying roughly ten times the US price for wholesale gas while storage sits well below seasonal norms.
According to Brussels Signal, Europe's benchmark TTF gas price rose to 81 euros per megawatt hour, about 28 dollars/MMBtu, on 10 September, its highest level since December 2022; this is roughly ten times the US Henry Hub price. The price rose 12% on the week, its fifth consecutive weekly gain.
According to LNG Global's regional gas security assessment of 11 September, EU storage is below seasonal norms and QatarEnergy has been under force majeure since March. Global Energy Flow data show EU storage at 68.04% full on 13 September, about 16.6 points below the seasonal norm. Entering winter at this level means Europe faces costlier competition with Asia for spot LNG.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
TTF reaching 81 euros/MWh, its highest since late 2022, shows Europe heading into winter with storage about 16.6 points below the seasonal norm and Qatari supply under force majeure. Because closing this gap before winter is difficult, the most likely path is for prices to stay high throughout the heating season. The decisive variables are the weather and whether Qatari supply returns.
Likely effects
- European industrial competitivenessNegative1–6 months
Gas prices roughly ten times those in the US widen Europe's cost disadvantage in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, steel and fertilisers and raise the risk of production curtailments.
- Global LNG marketNegative1–6 months
Europe entering winter with low storage and competing more expensively with Asia for spot LNG lifts global LNG prices and can price importing emerging economies out of the market.
- Türkiye energy billNegative1–6 months
Türkiye's spot LNG purchases are exposed to the same price environment; high European and LNG prices can increase the winter import bill, BOTAŞ's subsidy burden and the current-account deficit.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1High prices through winter60%
Storage stays below the seasonal norm and Qatari supply remains constrained; TTF trades high and volatile throughout the heating season.
Watch: Weekly pace of EU storage injections and TTF holding near its post-2022 high
- 2Cold winter and sharp spike25%
Cold weather or a further supply disruption accelerates storage withdrawals; prices reach new highs and demand curtailment comes onto the agenda.
Watch: Cold deviations in seasonal weather forecasts and storage withdrawals exceeding the seasonal average
- 3Easing as Qatari supply returns15%
QatarEnergy lifts force majeure or the winter is mild; the storage gap narrows and prices fall markedly.
Watch: A QatarEnergy statement lifting force majeure and resumed Qatari LNG shipments
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- EU gas storage▼ 68.04%
Historical context
EU gas storage fill level, last 6 months
There is not yet enough verified data for this series.