MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security12 October 2026, Monday
Europe heads into winter with dearer gas and thinner storage
European gas prices have risen more than 150% this year, according to a Reuters analysis on 12 October, and storage is expected to stand at only 75–78% full on 1 November, roughly 10 points below the five-year average. Banks expect prices to stay elevated through 2027.
Reuters says the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE offline, about 20% of global LNG supply, and those cargoes mostly went to Asia. The EU's full ban on Russian LNG takes effect in January 2027. Storage normally covers 25–30% of EU winter demand. In an average winter, stocks in north-west Europe could fall to 20% by early April 2027. ABN Amro says a cold winter could push that to 10–15%, and a spike above 100 euros/MWh is possible.
Households are starting to feel it. In Germany, tariffs for new customers have risen 55% this year, from 8 cents to 12.4 cents per kWh, and Verivox expects increases of 10–20% on existing contracts. In Britain, the energy price cap hit a three-year high in October and could rise a further 16% in January 2027. Rabobank sees the 2027 average at about 45 euros/MWh, while BNP Paribas does not expect a return to pre-conflict levels until 2028.
EnergyRiskIQ puts TTF at 81.79 euros/MWh and EU storage at 73.9% full. The page labels that price as the 11 October Sunday close. As there is no weekend trading, that date could not be verified; the figure is most likely the 9 October close.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
This winter Europe's gas problem is shifting from price to volume. If storage stops at 75–78%, an end-of-winter buffer of 20% will not carry a cold snap. The Russian LNG ban starting in January 2027 and Qatari volumes locked behind Hormuz carry the price pressure into 2027. The most likely path is a price around 80 euros/MWh, with spike risk hostage to the weather.
Likely effects
- Eurozone inflationNegative1–6 months
Germany's 55% tariff rise and the higher UK price cap keep household energy inflation elevated through the winter, narrowing the ECB's room to ease.
- European industryNegative6 months+
A 2027 average at or above 45 euros/MWh keeps gas-intensive chemicals and fertiliser output under capacity curtailment.
- Türkiye's gas billNegativeWeeks
Europe competing with Asia for LNG lifts spot LNG prices, and Türkiye's winter imports are priced in the same market.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Prices high but contained55%
In an average winter TTF holds in a 70–90 euros/MWh band and storage falls to around 20% by April.
Watch: Whether GIE AGSI data show 1 November fill above 75%
- 2Cold winter pushes TTF past 100 euros30%
Early cold and weak wind speed up storage withdrawals, TTF climbs above 100 euros/MWh and demand curtailment comes onto the agenda.
Watch: November–December weather forecasts and the weekly pace of withdrawals
- 3Hormuz reopens, prices ease15%
LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE resume and TTF drops below 60 euros/MWh.
Watch: Number of LNG tanker transits through Hormuz
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- European gas price (YTD)▼ +150%
- German new-customer tariff▼ +55%