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MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security20 October 2026, Tuesday

Bangladesh opens rooftop and floating solar to private investors

Bangladesh's government published the Private Solar Energy Installation Ordinance on the night of 19 October, with the gazette notice following on 20 October. Rooftop, water-surface, tea-garden and farmland projects of up to 5 MW are now open to private investment, with a target of 3,000–4,000 MW before next summer.

Location: DHAKA

The cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman approved the ordinance on 18 October. According to TBS, the Law Ministry's legislative division published the text on the night of 19 October, and the gazette notice appeared on 20 October. It covers installations of up to 5 MW on rooftops, courtyards, vacant land, water surfaces and tea gardens, as well as agrivoltaic systems that combine farming with solar. Large ground-mounted plants above 5 MW are excluded.

The ordinance sets out 2 financing models. Under the first (OPEX), the investor builds the system and is repaid from the electricity it generates. Under the second (CAPEX), the customer finances and owns the system. CAPEX buyers may procure goods and services worth up to 5 crore taka (50 million taka) through limited tendering, without the mandatory e-procurement system. Surplus power fed to the grid will be offset against bills through net metering; no cash payment tariff had been announced as of 22 October.

TBS reported on 20 October that Cabinet Secretary Nasimul Gani said the ongoing war had heightened energy vulnerability, making solar critical. According to the Daily Star, the government expects most of the 3,000–4,000 MW to come from small distributed projects. The ordinance sets penalties of up to 3 years in prison and a 50,000 taka fine for stealing solar power or equipment, and up to 5 years for damaging equipment. On 22 October Shafiqul Alam of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said tying equipment quality solely to the Bangladeshi standard was inadequate.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The ordinance shows Bangladesh has chosen distributed solar as the fastest supply source to deploy against an imported-fuel shock. The 3,000–4,000 MW target is ambitious for next summer. Until the net metering tariff is announced, OPEX investors cannot pin down their returns. The most likely path is an installation wave that misses the target but partly cuts daytime fuel demand.

Likely effects

  • Power supplyPositive1–6 months

    Allowing projects of up to 5 MW could reduce the need for imported-fuel generation during daytime hours ahead of the summer peak.

  • Grid balanceNegative6 months+

    Connecting 3,000–4,000 MW of distributed capacity through net metering could increase load-balancing needs on the distribution grid.

  • Private investmentUncertain1–6 months

    Because the OPEX model requires no upfront payment from building owners, it opens a new market for solar firms; tariff uncertainty may delay financing.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Partial success55%

    Installations speed up but stay below 3,000 MW by next summer.

    Watch: SREDA data on installed rooftop solar capacity

  2. 2
    Tariff delay slows investment30%

    The net metering payment tariff is not announced for months, and OPEX investors hold back.

    Watch: The government announcing the net metering payment tariff

  3. 3
    Target is met15%

    Led by public buildings, 3,000–4,000 MW comes online before summer.

    Watch: The National Policy Council's first progress report

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Installation target▲ 3,000–4,000 MW

Sources

  1. The Daily Star — Rooftops, water bodies and tea gardens now open to private solar investors
  2. The Business Standard — Solar power theft to draw up to 3 years in jail under new ordinance