MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt4 October 2026, Sunday · 14:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Brazil votes in first round as final polls put Lula ahead
Voting in the first round of Brazil's presidential election began at 14:00 TRT on 4 October and ends at 23:00. The final Datafolha poll gives Lula a 45% to 40% lead in valid votes; in a run-off scenario the gap is 3 points, within the margin of error.
According to Al Jazeera, polls opened at 08:00 Brasília time and close at 17:00. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, a run-off will be held on 25 October. According to The Rio Times, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will update results every 20 minutes after polls close. The count is expected to be largely complete by about 21:30 Brasília time, around 03:30 TRT on 5 October. Lula, 80, is seeking a 4th term, while Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is running to carry his father's political legacy.
The Datafolha poll cited by Jornal do Brasil surveyed 2,506 voters between 28 September and 1 October and was published on the evening of 1 October. In valid votes Lula takes 45%, Flávio Bolsonaro 40% and Augusto Cury 4%, with Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos on 3%. In the run-off scenario Lula takes 48% of total votes to Bolsonaro's 45%, which Datafolha treats as a statistical tie. An AtlasIntel poll of 5,005 people on 23–28 September shows the run-off at 50% to 50% in valid votes, with a margin of error of ±1 point.
According to a Quaest poll of 7 September cited by Al Jazeera, 31% of voters name violence as the top problem, 20% corruption and 19% the economy. The same report says voters trust Bolsonaro more on inflation, corruption and crime, and Lula more on poverty, foreign policy and health. As of 14:00 TRT on 4 October there were no official results; the count is not included in this entry.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Polls give Lula a 3–5 point head start in the first round, but none shows him clearing 50%. The real decision comes in the 25 October run-off, where the two candidates are within the margin of error. For markets, the first round mainly opens 3 weeks of uncertainty before the run-off; the most likely path is a race that goes to a second round.
Likely effects
- Brazilian real and rate expectationsNegativeWeeks
A neck-and-neck race lasting 3 weeks until the run-off keeps a political risk premium on the real and on rates further out the curve.
- Fiscal policy directionNegative1–6 months
With 19% of voters naming the economy as the top problem and Bolsonaro seen as stronger on inflation, both candidates may be pushed towards spending pledges in the run-off.
- Emerging-market fund flowsUncertainWeeks
Uncertainty in Brazil could temporarily reduce Latin America's weight in emerging-market funds, creating a relative flow opportunity for other high-yield markets, including Türkiye.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Lula leads into the run-off65%
Lula finishes first with less than 50%, and the two candidates head into 25 October neck and neck.
Watch: The final first-round result released by the TSE overnight on 4–5 October
- 2Bolsonaro finishes first25%
Bolsonaro outperforms the polls and finishes the first round ahead, taking momentum into the run-off.
Watch: Bolsonaro overtaking Lula in valid votes in the TSE count
- 3Lula wins outright10%
Lula clears 50% of valid votes and no run-off is needed.
Watch: Lula's share of valid votes passing 50% in the TSE count
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Datafolha first round, valid votes▲ 45%–40%
- AtlasIntel run-off, valid votes▼ 50%–50%
- Possible run-off date▼ 25 October
Sources
- Al Jazeera — What to know about Brazil's 2026 presidential election
- Jornal do Brasil — Datafolha shows Lula on 45% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro on 40%
- The Rio Times — Brazil Election 2026: Lula Leads First Round, Runoff a Dead Heat in Final AtlasIntel Poll
- The Rio Times — Brazil Election Results 2026: Live Updates