HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence7 October 2026, Wednesday
RSF drones strike Damazin as Burhan rules out talks
Sudan's army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, said on 6 October that his forces would retake every inch of the country from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). On 7 October RSF drones killed at least four civilians in Damazin, capital of Blue Nile state.
According to Al Jazeera on 7 October, Burhan spoke in Village 5, near Merowe in Northern State, and rejected negotiations to end a war now in its fourth year. He said the military option would continue until the RSF had been driven out of Sudan. The war, which began in April 2023, has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced about 13 million.
Daily Sabah reported on 7 October that RSF drones hit homes and a mosque in Damazin, killing four women in the Al-Hijra district and wounding dozens. The Emergency Lawyers committee called the attack a grave breach of international humanitarian law and named the SPLM-N as an RSF ally. The report noted that the UN had recorded 1,100 civilian deaths from drone strikes between January and June 2026. Al Jazeera said more than 5,500 people fled villages in Blue Nile within three days.
The Kordofan front is heating up in both directions. Anadolu Agency reported that the Dar Hamar Emergency Committee said on 6 October that at least 10 civilians were killed in an RSF attack on Abu Ajeel village, in rural En Nahud in West Kordofan. The Sudan Doctors Network had reported 25 civilian deaths in Um Badr in North Kordofan. The army says it has taken El-Mazroub in North Kordofan and is advancing on En Nahud and El-Khuwei. The casualty figures come from local groups and could not be independently verified as of 7 October.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Burhan's refusal shows the army sees a high price in coming to the table while its gains in North Kordofan continue. The RSF is answering with drone strikes behind the front lines, and the Damazin attack confirms the war has spread to Blue Nile, which borders Ethiopia and South Sudan. The most likely near-term path is a war of attrition in Kordofan and Blue Nile rather than a ceasefire.
Likely effects
- Humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks
Drone strikes that killed 1,100 civilians between January and June are spreading to rear-area towns, swelling displacement; 5,500 people uprooted in Blue Nile in three days is the first sign.
- Ethiopian borderNegative1–6 months
Fighting in Blue Nile coincides with the renewed war in Tigray, raising the risk of cross-border refugee flows and arms trafficking.
- MediationNegative1–6 months
An open rejection of talks leaves ceasefire proposals from outside mediators without traction in the near term.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1War of attrition continues60%
The army advances slowly in Kordofan, the RSF hits towns with drones and civilian casualties rise.
Watch: UN OCHA displacement updates for Blue Nile and Kordofan
- 2Army takes En Nahud25%
The army pushes into West Kordofan, shifting the balance on the front, and the RSF falls back on Darfur.
Watch: An official statement that the army has entered En Nahud
- 3Ceasefire contacts revive15%
Heavy losses or outside pressure push both sides towards indirect talks.
Watch: The army or the RSF announcing it will join mediated talks
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Civilians killed in Damazin▼ 4
- Fled Blue Nile in 3 days▼ 5,500+
- Displaced (total)▼ ~13 million