HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt3 November 2026, Tuesday · 10:00 TRT (UTC+3)
October inflation overshoots, ending Türkiye's four-month run of declines
TurkStat put October consumer inflation at 2.58% on the month and 29.77% on the year on 3 November. Economists had expected a monthly 2.20%. The annual rate edged up from 29.73% in September, ending a four-month decline that began in May.
Economists polled by AA Finans had expected 2.20% on the month and 29.28% on the year; the outturn beat both. Prices are up 27.52% since January, and the 12-month average has reached 31.23%. Food made the largest contribution to the monthly rise, 0.84 points, with food prices up 3.50%. Transport rose 2.02% and housing, water, electricity and gas 2.84%. Coal and briquettes climbed 20.23%, and other fuels for personal transport 18.01%.
Core measures ran slightly below the headline. The B index rose 2% on the month and 28.46% on the year, and the C index 28.28% on the year. Domestic producer prices rose 1.65% on the month and 27.41% on the year. Prices rose in 134 of 174 sub-groups and fell in 29. Among alternative gauges, ENAG estimated annual inflation at 45.12% and the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce put Istanbul retail prices up 32.47%. The data came 12 days after the CBRT cut its policy rate to 36% on 22 October.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The October print does not mean disinflation has stopped; it means the year-end targets are slipping out of reach. A 27.52% rise since January leaves very little room over two months for the CBRT's 28% forecast. Talay's reading is that the forecast will be raised in the 12 November report and that the 10 December cut will be more cautious.
Likely effects
- Monetary policyNegativeWeeks
A monthly print 0.38 points above consensus is the first concrete reason to slow the pace of cuts at the 10 December MPC meeting.
- HouseholdsNegativeWeeks
Food up 3.50% and heating fuels up more than 20% add to the burden on low-income households ahead of winter.
- Wage and rent adjustmentsNegative1–6 months
A 12-month average of 31.23% keeps wage and rent updates that are indexed to the average elevated.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Forecast is raised60%
On 12 November the CBRT lifts its year-end forecast above 28%, keeps the interim target and reinforces its tight-policy message.
Watch: Year-end forecast in the 12 November Inflation Report
- 2November slows sharply25%
Seasonal effects in food and clothing reverse, November CPI comes in below 1.5% and any revision is limited.
Watch: November CPI due in early December and the 1.5% threshold
- 3Pricing pressure deepens15%
Energy and food pressure persists in November, the monthly rate stays above 2% and annual inflation tops 30%.
Watch: EPDK fuel price adjustments and November leading price indicators
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Monthly CPI▼ 2.58%
- Annual CPI▼ 29.77%
- Food, monthly▼ 3.50%