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Türkiye

Narrow room for manoeuvre · updated 18 September 2026

What they did

On 16 September the Ministry of Treasury and Finance published the August budget: a monthly surplus of 12.9 billion lira and a January–August deficit of 1,308.1 billion lira. With the increase that took effect at midnight on 17 September, the pump price of diesel passed 100 lira a litre for the first time; Cumhuriyet listed successive excise duty rises among the reasons for the increase. In the same week the Personal Data Protection Authority (KVKK) made public a data breach at 12 companies affecting 10,218,802 people.

Why

After the Fed raised its policy rate to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September, the BIST 100 fell the same day by 5.54% to 13,122.58 points and 17 stocks hit their lower limit; the banking index dropped 6.38%. The dollar/lira rate rose to 48.6723 lira on 17 September, roughly 13.12% above the 43.0312 lira at the start of the year. With annual inflation at 31.51% in August, the exchange rate is directly raising the cost of imported fuel.

What they must do

It must cover the cargo allocation lost when Russia extended its diesel export ban to all producers until 31 October: according to OilPrice, Türkiye lost at least 50% of its previous allocation, and the gap will be met from alternative sources at higher freight rates and premiums. At the same time it must roll over a deficit of 1,308.1 billion lira, with interest payments up 39.4% over eight months, and prevent the energy shock from seeping into inflation expectations.

What comes next

Russia's diesel export ban expires on 31 October; the S&P credit rating review falls on 16 October, with MPC meetings on 22 October and 10 December. The Russian gas contracts end on 31 December 2026. Investigations under the KVKK's decision 2026/2039 are continuing.

Preference

Returning to the disinflation path and to gradual rate cuts as the exchange rate and pump prices find stability.

Observed behaviour

A stance that passes the bill for the energy shock to the pump through excise rises, protecting budget revenue while transferring price pressure to households.

Sources

  1. Cumhuriyet — Diesel prices pass 100 lira, fuel prices on 17 September 2026
  2. Takvim — Sharp sell-off in the BIST 100, 17 stocks at their lower limit
  3. Alomaliye — Budget posted a 12.9 billion lira surplus in August
  4. OilPrice — Russia extends diesel export ban through October
  5. Memurlar.Net — KVKK announces: data of 12 companies stolen

Related events

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