HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt2 November 2026, Monday
CBRT net reserves excluding swaps shed 8.6 billion dollars in a week
CBRT data released on 2 November show gross reserves fell by 6.91 billion dollars to 162.19 billion dollars in the week of 23 October. Net reserves excluding swaps dropped 8.58 billion dollars to 30.76 billion dollars.
Figures compiled by Hibya from CBRT data show net reserves fell by 8.64 billion dollars to 42.87 billion dollars in the same week. Foreign currency reserves fell 3.10 billion dollars to 59.04 billion dollars, and gold reserves 3.80 billion dollars to 103.15 billion dollars. Since January, gross reserves are down 26.90 billion dollars and net reserves excluding swaps 31.84 billion dollars. Ekonomim's preliminary estimate on 30 October had put the ex-swap figure at 30.74 billion dollars.
The series stood at 39.9 billion dollars in the week of 25 September, when Bloomberg HT wrote that it had fallen below a critical threshold. After holding at 39.34 billion dollars in the week of 16 October, it lost 8.58 billion dollars in the single week to 23 October. Gross reserves fell to their lowest since 17 July. The sources gave no reason for the drop, which coincided with the week the CBRT cut its policy rate by 100 basis points on 22 October.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
A loss of 8.58 billion dollars in a single week shows the cost to the CBRT of defending lira stability is rising fast. With no stated cause, it is unclear whether this is persistent or a one-off wave. Talay's reading is that, together with October's above-consensus inflation, the loss narrows the room for a cut on 10 December.
Likely effects
- Monetary policyNegativeWeeks
An ex-swap buffer approaching 30 billion dollars increases pressure on the CBRT to choose between continuing rate cuts and currency stability.
- External financingNegative1–6 months
An ex-swap loss of 31.84 billion dollars since January shows the buffer against external shocks has thinned by more than half since the start of the year.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Losses slow but continue50%
Weekly declines ease to 1–3 billion dollars in the coming weeks and the series fluctuates around 30 billion dollars.
Watch: The next CBRT reserve release, for the week of 30 October
- 2Threshold is breached30%
Selling continues, net reserves ex-swaps fall below 30 billion dollars and the MPC's December cut comes into question.
Watch: The 30 billion dollar threshold for net reserves ex-swaps
- 3Rapid recovery20%
Lower oil prices and foreign inflows lift reserves for two weeks running.
Watch: Net reserves ex-swaps rising in two consecutive weeks
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Net reserves ex-swaps▼ −$8.58bn
- Gross reserves▼ $162.19bn
- YTD ex-swap loss▼ −$31.84bn