MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints11 October 2026, Sunday
Avalanche kills two contract workers at Codelco's El Teniente mine
An avalanche killed two contract workers on 11 October in the open-pit section of El Teniente, the mine run by Chile's state copper company Codelco. The open pit had already been halted because of bad weather, and Codelco reported no loss of output.
According to the Rio Times, two workers aged 54 and 34, employed by the contractor San Lorenzo, died after being buried by snow in the Rajo Sur sector, and two others were slightly injured. Luis Núñez, head of the contract workers' union, called for an investigation into why workers were clearing snow when about 5 metres had fallen. Shanghai Metals Market reports that the incident was initially announced as a mudslide; Codelco has not said whether the underground operation and facilities were affected.
El Teniente is the world's largest underground copper mine, and 6 workers died in a rock burst there in July 2025. According to SMM, the mine's molybdenum output fell 34.9% to 1,483.1 tonnes in the first half of 2026. The US Geological Survey says Chile mined about 5.3 million tonnes of copper in 2025, close to a quarter of world output, and supplied 68% of US refined copper imports in 2021–2024.
Mining.com.au wrote that LME copper rose 1% to 14,688 dollars a tonne, its highest since 25 September, and that talks on the strike at Antofagasta's Centinela mine would resume on Tuesday. Because the page's dates are shifted by one day and it carries 3 worker statements, these price and event details could not be independently verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
This is not a direct supply shock: the open pit had already stopped and Codelco reported no loss. Its weight lies in accumulation. A second fatal incident after the 2025 accident that killed 6 could bring more frequent inspections and safety stoppages. Read together with the Centinela strike and El Teniente's falling molybdenum output, Chilean supply looks fragile at a time when the market is tight.
Likely effects
- Copper supplyNegative1–6 months
With the open pit already halted, the immediate impact is limited; but if the prosecutor's investigation brings safety stoppages in other sectors, Codelco's annual production target comes under pressure.
- Molybdenum marketNegativeWeeks
Molybdenum output, already down 34.9% in the first half, could fall further with new stoppages.
- US supply securityNegative1–6 months
Because the US sources 68% of its refined copper imports from Chile, every disruption there enters Washington's critical-minerals calculus.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Brief halt, limited output impact60%
The open pit reopens once the weather improves, the underground operation runs without interruption, and Codelco reports no significant quarterly loss.
Watch: Codelco's third-quarter production report and Cochilco's monthly data
- 2Inspections widen30%
Prosecutors and the mining safety agency demand further safety stoppages, and El Teniente's output falls for several weeks.
Watch: A new stoppage order from Sernageomin for El Teniente
- 3Supply shock compounded by strike10%
The Centinela strike drags on, the El Teniente stoppage spreads underground, and LME copper hits a new high.
Watch: The outcome of the Centinela talks and the LME cash-to-three-month premium
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Fatalities▼ 2
- El Teniente molybdenum output (1H26)▼ −34.9%