HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence28 September 2026, Monday
Ethiopia's army casts the Tigray war as a neighbours' proxy war
Ethiopia's chief of general staff, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt on 27–28 September of backing Tigrayan forces. Sudan's army rejected the claims as baseless on 28 September and accused Ethiopia of supporting the RSF.
According to Africanews and Al Jazeera reports on 28 September, Birhanu Jula said the groups fighting federal forces could not advance without support from Sudan and Egypt. According to an AP report on 28 September, Jula also claimed Eritrea was mobilising financial support for the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). According to Africanews and France 24, the accusations followed heavy fighting between the TPLF and the federal government that resumed on Wednesday 23 September. A week earlier the TPLF had announced an alliance with 6 armed groups aimed at toppling the government.
Sudan's army flatly rejected the claims and made a counter-accusation. According to Africanews, Khartoum argues that in the civil war under way since April 2023, Ethiopia has backed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). It also says Ethiopia has allowed drone strikes coordinated with the UAE; both countries deny this. According to AP, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel linked the regional tension to Ethiopia's search for a seaport. France 24 and Africanews put the death toll of the 2020–2022 war at about 600,000, while AP puts it at about 500,000.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Addis Ababa is framing the conflict in Tigray as an externally backed war rather than a domestic insurgency. Combined with the counter-accusations over the Sudan war, this framing raises the risk that conflicts across the Horn of Africa become linked. If the mutual accusations continue, mediation becomes harder and the likelihood of cross-border escalation rises.
Likely effects
- Regional securityNegative1–6 months
Ethiopia and Sudan accusing each other of backing the other's armed groups raises the risk that two civil wars become linked through proxy relationships.
- Red Sea coastNegative1–6 months
Eritrea linking the tension to Ethiopia's search for a port points to a new line of friction on the African shore of the Red Sea.
- Humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks
Coming after a previous war that cost close to 600,000 lives, the new fighting again heightens the risk of civilian casualties and displacement.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Stays rhetorical50%
The accusations continue but there is no direct cross-border fighting; the war concentrates in Tigray, Afar and Amhara.
Watch: An official statement from Eritrea or Egypt, or troop movements on the border
- 2Proxy conflict deepens35%
Sudan and Ethiopia back their mutual support claims with concrete shipments or drone strikes, and the two wars become linked.
Watch: A drone strike in the border area or a formal complaint to the UN
- 3Mediation opens15%
The African Union or regional actors launch ceasefire talks and the accusations soften.
Watch: An announcement of mediation by the African Union
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Neighbouring states accused▼ 3 countries
- Fighting resumed▼ 23 September
Sources
- Africanews — Sudan rejects Ethiopia's claims of backing Tigray forces
- Al Jazeera — Ethiopia accuses Sudan, Egypt of backing Tigray rebels as fighting rages
- ClickOrlando (AP) — Ethiopia's army chief accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting Tigray rebels
- France 24 — Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan of backing Tigray rebels amid clashes