HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence21 September 2026, Monday
Seven armed groups in Ethiopia, including the TPLF and Fano, form an alliance to overthrow the Abiy government
Seven Ethiopian armed groups, including the TPLF and the Amhara Fano, which fought on opposite sides in the 2020–2022 civil war, announced on 21 September 2026 that they had formed the Ethiopian People's Forces Survival Alliance, aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
According to an Africanews report dated 21 September 2026, the Fano leader assumed the chairmanship of the alliance; the TPLF Vice-President defined the aim as removing the regime and facilitating a transitional government. The groups are said to have been discussing cooperation for more than a year. Members include the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the TPLF, the Ogaden National Liberation Front and 3 groups from the Afar, Benishangul and Gumuz regions; the 7 groups cover a geography stretching from Tigray in the north to the Somali region in the south.
An estimated 600,000 people died in the Tigray war; Fano took up arms against the government after a federal disarmament order in April 2023, and thousands have died in the fighting in Amhara since then. According to Africanews, 13 people were wounded in a drone strike in Tigray on 21 August 2026, and the government and the TPLF have massed troops on the Tigray border in recent months. As reported by TimesLIVE, the TPLF retook the regional administration in May 2026; an adviser to the Prime Minister's Office had earlier said such a coalition could not overthrow the federal government.
A regional expert interviewed by Africanews said the rebels doubted their military capacity against the government's drone superiority, but that a war on 4 to 5 fronts could stretch federal forces. The federal government had not formally responded to the alliance as of 21 September; the alliance's joint command structure could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The alliance brings Ethiopia's scattered insurgencies under a single political umbrella for the first time; former enemies joining forces is a political alarm for the government. But the drone superiority of federal forces and territorial disputes among members make a simultaneous war of attrition on 4 to 5 fronts more likely in the near term than a military front threatening the capital.
Likely effects
- Horn of Africa stabilityNegative1–6 months
Mutual troop build-ups on the Tigray border and the new alliance raise the risk of the 2020–2022 war reigniting in the north; this could trigger flows of migrants and weapons into neighbouring countries.
- Ethiopian economy and investmentNegative1–6 months
A multi-front conflict increases security spending in the economy and dampens investment appetite.
- Türkiye's regional presenceNegative6 months+
If the conflict spreads, Türkiye's investments and defence cooperation in Ethiopia would create both risk on the ground and a diplomatic balancing problem.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1War of attrition spreads55%
Alliance members step up attacks in their own regions and the government responds with drone strikes; the number of fronts grows but the capital does not come under threat.
Watch: Reports of simultaneous fighting in Amhara and Oromia and the first major clash on the Tigray border
- 2Alliance stays on paper30%
Territorial disputes among members prevent a joint command, and actions continue uncoordinated.
Watch: No announcement of a joint military operation and reports of clashes between members
- 3Negotiation channel opens15%
Under mounting pressure and external mediation, talks begin between the government and some alliance members.
Watch: An announcement of a mediation initiative by the African Union or the UN
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Armed groups in the alliance▼ 7
- Possible number of fronts▼ 4–5