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RegionSub-Saharan Africa

HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence12 October 2026, Monday

Drought compounds war as famine risk grows in Darfur and Kordofan

The IPC, the global food-crisis monitoring system, issued an exceptional alert for Sudan on 12 October. El Niño-driven drought is affecting about half the country, and parts of Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan are at risk of famine.

Location: DARFUR-KORDOFAN

According to an AP report published by PBS on 12 October, the IPC said West Kordofan is going through one of its worst droughts since 2004. Crop growth is poor on 64% of cultivated land in North Darfur and on about half in South Darfur, West Kordofan and South Kordofan. In two camps for displaced people in South Darfur, acute malnutrition among children has crossed the famine threshold. In Nyala, the share of admissions for severe acute malnutrition rose from about 5% to 11% between January and August.

In the IPC's May assessment, more than 40% of the population, about 19.5 million people, faced high levels of acute food insecurity; 135,000 were in Phase 5, the most severe. The IRC said on 13 October that the national harvest is expected to be close to a record low and that more than 5 million people face emergency levels of hunger. The IRC estimates that about 825,000 children under five will suffer severe acute malnutrition. The 12 October alert is not a new famine classification; the IPC issued an exceptional notice because conditions are deteriorating faster than a full analysis can capture.

A WHO note on 12 October says more than 26,000 children were treated at 161 nutrition stabilisation centres in January–August 2026, while only 23% of the agency's $97.7 million appeal for Sudan has been funded. ACLED has recorded at least 150,000 deaths in the war that began in April 2023, and about 13 million people have been displaced. The army said on 2 October it had taken el-Mazroub in North Kordofan; fighting on the Kordofan front overlaps with farmland hit by the drought.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The alert shows that hunger in Sudan is now a product of climate as well as war: a near-record-low harvest, two camps past the famine threshold and an appeal only 23% funded are arriving at once. Because the Kordofan front overlaps with the farm belt, army advances do not by themselves restore food supply. The likeliest path is that a formal famine classification comes onto the agenda in the period running to January 2027.

Likely effects

  • Cross-border displacementNegative1–6 months

    A collapsing harvest in Darfur risks a new wave of displacement into Chad, which already hosts more than 900,000 Sudanese refugees.

  • Regional grain pricesNegative1–6 months

    A near-record-low harvest makes Sudan more dependent on imported grain and food aid, pushing up food prices in neighbouring markets.

  • Aid fundingNegativeWeeks

    With the WHO appeal at 23%, aid agencies are forced to shift resources to camps past the famine threshold, and services shrink elsewhere.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Formal famine classification50%

    New survey data arrive and the IPC classifies at least one area of Darfur or Kordofan in Phase 5 famine.

    Watch: A new Sudan analysis from the IPC Famine Review Committee

  2. 2
    Crisis deepens, classification lags35%

    Gaps in access and surveys persist; conditions worsen but a formal famine declaration is blocked by insufficient data.

    Watch: Humanitarian access permits and convoy numbers for North and West Kordofan

  3. 3
    Aid and truce contain the risk15%

    Donor funding rises quickly and local truces in Kordofan allow food distribution.

    Watch: A marked narrowing of the funding gap in Sudan's humanitarian response plan

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Camps past famine threshold▼ 2
  • WHO appeal funded▼ 23%

Sources

  1. PBS NewsHour (AP) — Sudan's famine risk worsened by conflict, drought and funding shortages, report says
  2. Al Jazeera — Conflict, drought increasing risk of famine in Sudan: Monitor
  3. WHO — IPC Sudan Food Insecurity and Malnutrition Alert
  4. IRC — War and El Niño-driven drought deplete food stocks, pushing Sudan further towards famine
  5. Al Jazeera — Sudan's army says it captured RSF stronghold in North Kordofan