MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security19 October 2026, Monday
Colombia leaves its firm energy shortfall to the 2027 auctions
On Óptima Consultores' 15 October report, Colombia's firm energy shortfall for 2026-27 runs at 7,669 GWh a year. In September the mining ministry had put the gap at 8.6% and 8,030 GWh.
Óptima Consultores' regulatory report of 15 October calculates that the national grid will face a firm energy shortfall of 7,669 GWh a year over 2026-27. The gap widens to 10,299 GWh in 2028-29 and 10,603 GWh in 2029-30, the last figure equal to 10.6% of projected average demand. Mining and Energy Minister María Nohemí Arboleda referred in September to a gap of 8.6% and 8,030 GWh, and described 2027 as a year of several auctions.
The root of the problem is not demand but capacity failing to arrive on time. Of the 4,475 MW expected for 2026, only 1,077.2 MW, or 24.1%, had been commissioned by 2 October. On a cumulative basis, 5,547.2 MW of a 28,100 MW pledge, or 19.7%, has been delivered. Closing the gap requires roughly 1,107 MW of extra capacity; solved with solar alone, that figure rises to around 4,000 MW.
The thermal side is missing its targets too. Under the regime CREG brought in on 7 September the daily target was 95 GWh, raised to 100 GWh from 23 September, while the realised average was 82.1 GWh. The target was missed on 26 of the 28 days examined. Reservoir levels fell from 82.18% to 76.67% on 5 October. Diesel imports for thermal plants rose from 15,000 barrels a day to 48,000.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Colombia's problem is not its supply plan but the plan having no counterpart on the ground. With only a fifth of pledged capacity commissioned, closing the gap through an auction calendar becomes difficult. Falling reservoir levels and a tripling of thermal diesel imports show the system staying expensive and brittle in a drought scenario. Even if the 2027 auctions are announced, new capacity is unlikely to rescue this period.
Likely effects
- Power costsNegativeWeeks
Thermal generation leaning on diesel pushes up system costs as daily imports climb to 48,000 barrels.
- Security of supplyNegative1–6 months
With only 24.1% of the 4,475 MW planned for 2026 commissioned, the risk of outages rises during dry spells.
- Regulatory confidenceNegative6 months+
An awarded auction failing to meet its conditions could dull investor interest in the auctions still to come.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The gap is covered by imports55%
The system gets by on diesel and imported gas, and the cost is passed into tariffs.
Watch: The grid operator's monthly series for thermal generation and diesel consumption
- 2Accelerated auction30%
The government brings the 2027 auctions forward and capacity pledges are renewed.
Watch: CREG's auction calendar announcement and the number of participants
- 3A period of outages15%
The drought deepens, reservoirs fall further and regional outages come onto the agenda.
Watch: Total reservoir levels falling below 60%
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- 2026-27 firm energy shortfall▼ 7,669 GWh
- 2026 capacity delivered▼ 24.1%
- Reservoir level▼ 76.67%
- Thermal diesel imports▲ +33,000 b/d