MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints29 October 2026, Thursday
Congo's export quota cuts Glencore's cobalt output by more than half
Glencore's report of 29 October shows own-sourced cobalt output down 52% over nine months to 13,700 tonnes. The company is holding the metal in solution because of the DR Congo quota. At the same time Kinshasa removed the head of the agency that polices illegal mining.
According to MINING.COM, Glencore produced 28,500 tonnes a year earlier; third-quarter output fell 20% to 3,500 tonnes. The decline does not reflect weakness at the mines: copper output rose 3% over the same period to 598,600 tonnes. Instead of converting cobalt into saleable hydroxide, the company keeps it in solution and does not count that volume as production. The amount held in solution was not disclosed. How much supply would return to the market once the quota eases could therefore not be verified.
The constraint is not only the export quota but enforcement on the ground. Mines Minister Louis Watum removed the head of SAEMAPE, which oversees artisanal mining, on 21 October. According to the decision seen by Reuters, the agency failed to prevent illegal digging at licensed sites in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga and placed irregular collectors there. Bloomberg reports the decision as a dismissal and Reuters as a suspension; the official's name is also written in a different order in the two sources.
The crackdown accelerated with the detention of about 300 Chinese nationals around Kolwezi on 12–16 October; no official count or charges had been announced as of 17 October. On 23 October the government reached a deal for more than 20,000 miners to leave the Kamilombe site licensed to Gécamines. In Kolwezi, meanwhile, miners set up barricades and clashed with police. The cobalt quota had been set at 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
DR Congo is trying to manage cobalt prices through the quota and the licensing order through clearances on the ground. Glencore's output falling to 13,700 tonnes shows supply has not vanished but been deferred in solution. The most likely path is that the constraint persists until the end of 2027 and the undisclosed stock casts a shadow over prices.
Likely effects
- Cobalt supplyUncertain6 months+
As producers defer processing, visible supply tightens; if the quota eases, the metal held in solution could return to the market quickly.
- China's mining presenceNegative1–6 months
About 300 detentions and site clearances raise political risk for the Chinese companies that control most production in DR Congo.
- Stability on the groundNegativeWeeks
The relocation of more than 20,000 miners and the barricades in Kolwezi show enforcement colliding with livelihoods.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Quota and clearances continue together60%
The quota stays at 96,600 tonnes, digging at licensed sites partly declines and local tension flares intermittently.
Watch: Quota announcements by the Congolese regulator and the timetable for the Kamilombe relocation
- 2Escalation on the ground25%
Miners resist relocation, clashes with security forces spread to major sites and production is affected.
Watch: New barricades in Kolwezi or a production halt at a major licensed site
- 3Kinshasa eases the quota15%
The government raises the quota and cobalt held in solution starts returning to the market.
Watch: A quota increase or Glencore disclosing its stockpiled volume
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Glencore cobalt (9 months)▼ −52%
- African copper unit cobalt▼ −56%
- Chinese nationals detained▼ ~300
Sources
- MINING.COM — Glencore cobalt output sinks 52% under DRC quotas
- MINING.COM (Bloomberg) — Congo removes boss of artisanal mining regulator amid crackdown
- CNBC Africa (Reuters) — Congo suspends artisanal mining agency head for failing to prevent illegal activities
- Discovery Alert — Congo detains 300 Chinese nationals in copper belt, prices unmoved