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CN · State Council · CPC · Asia-Pacific

China

Limited room for manoeuvre · updated 4 November 2026

What they did

According to an ingeniSPACE analysis reported by Yomiuri on 31 October, four Chinese research vessels have slowed and stopped since May at points around Taiwan where international cables run; the same behaviour has been seen off Hokkaido and Nagoya since 2024. None of the 92 documents filed with the Federal Register on 3 November is a BIS-signed truce text, and the Commerce Ministry portal shows no new notice extending the rare earth suspension. Drone component licensing under Announcement No. 49 starts on 18 November, and comments on the trade secrets draft close on 24 November.

Why

Ahead of the 21st Party Congress in 2027, Xi is putting political control ahead of institutional cadres: attendance fell to 74.2% and 16 cases are military. Growth leans on high-tech (51.3), while construction new orders fell to 40.0 and the small-firm index to 47.5. Rare earth licensing remains the strongest lever: dysprosium oxide costs 210–216 dollars a kilo inside China and 2,500–5,500 dollars outside, and the April 2025 licensing regime sits outside the truce. The US chip licence of 31 May also covers Chinese firms' overseas affiliates.

What they must do

On 10 November it must decide whether to extend the rare earth suspension by numbered notice, and keep its licensing regime on seven heavy elements without breaking the truce. From 18 November it must run drone component licensing buyer by buyer without breaching the truce, and answer the 50% restriction if the affiliates rule returns on 10 November. It must preserve command continuity with five empty seats on the Central Military Commission, and weigh support that could lift new orders back to 50 in November.

What comes next

First up is 9–10 November, when the US affiliates rule and the rare earth notice converge; as of 3 November neither side had published a text. Comments on the AI export draft close on 15 November, drone component licensing starts on 18 November, APEC meets in Shenzhen on 18–19 November, comments on the trade secrets draft close on 24 November, and the gallium, germanium and antimony suspension ends on 27 November. Research vessel tracks and the first Central Military Commission appointment are being watched.

Preference

A longer truce, looser chip controls, model weights and design know-how held back as bargaining chips, and rare earth and AI access rationed through separate bargains with each partner.

Observed behaviour

It builds leverage in raw materials through the speed of selective licensing and leaves suspension decisions to the last moment; at home it deepens the purge in step with the Congress timetable while keeping up its maritime tempo.

Sources

  1. Asia News Network (Yomiuri Shimbun) — Chinese ships suspected of surveying undersea cables near Japan, Philippines (2 November 2026)
  2. Seoul Economic Daily — Chinese Ships Trace Undersea Cables Near Taiwan, Analysts Say (4 November 2026)
  3. Federal Register — Public Inspection, 3 November 2026 filing (92 documents)
  4. China Ministry of Commerce — Export control information portal
  5. Drone Intelligence — China Announcement No. 49: Drone Component Export Licensing Begins November 18, 2026
  6. Steptoe — Sanctions Update, November 2, 2026
  7. Baird Maritime (Reuters) — China's coast guard tightens grip in waters east of Taiwan
  8. Xinhua (state media) — Communique of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee
  9. TokenPost — China Confirms 33 Party Expulsions, Leaves Two on Military Commission
  10. Xinhua (state media) — China's manufacturing PMI softens, high-tech sector maintains expansion
  11. Shanghai Metals Market — NBS: Manufacturing PMI at 49.3% in October
  12. Asia Times — Pre-APEC US ban on Chinese genomic giant widens biotech decoupling
  13. Rare Earth Exchanges — Rare Earth Prices, October 2026
  14. Reuters (AOL) — Analysis: China's new export curbs draw a line around its AI crown jewels
  15. Al Jazeera — US says ban on AI chip shipments applies to Chinese firms outside China
  16. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — Taiwan 'deeply regrets' Pakistan's airspace ban on Taiwanese airlines
  17. Korea JoongAng Daily — Solidigm floats $45 billion U.S. chip plant tied to Dalian license: Bloomberg
  18. Pillsbury — What If the BIS Affiliates Rule Comes Into Force?
  19. Carra Globe — China Rare Earth Export Controls 2026: The 0.1% Rule Returns November 10
  20. PBS NewsHour (AP) — China says it will curb tech exports, including AI, citing national security risks
  21. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (official) — Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun's Regular Press Conference on October 26, 2026
  22. Taipei Times (AFP) — China-funded Confucius Institutes deemed US national security threat: Hegseth
  23. Philstar — Gibo Teodoro: Use of force vs BRP Sierra Madre an 'act of war'
  24. Philippine Daily Inquirer — Gibo Teodoro: 'Act of war' if China tries to tow Sierra Madre
  25. Nikkei Asia (Reuters) — North Korea's Kim Jong Un visits China via newly opened bridge
  26. Focus Taiwan — 8 Japan Coast Guard vessels shadowed by China near Penghu: Taiwan
  27. PBS NewsHour (AP) — Treasury proposes rule to curb high-tech investments in China and other adversaries
  28. The Record — FCC bans two devices with surveillance chips linked to Huawei
  29. Microsoft Security Blog — AI-driven, large-scale nation-state campaign using ARTEX enables supply chain compromise
  30. The Record — Microsoft blames ConnectWise attacks on Chinese state hacker using ARTEX AI agents
  31. Global Banking & Finance Review (Reuters) — Exclusive: TSMC seeks factory-equipment alternatives to thwart China's rare earths grip
  32. Startup Fortune — China's Rare Earth Export Truce Expires November 10 With No Renewal in Sight
  33. Taipei Times (Reuters) — ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent place over US$35 bn worth of Nvidia chip orders
  34. TrendForce — NVIDIA RTX PRO 5500 Reportedly Draws $35B in China Orders, with Supply Seen at Just 5–10%
  35. CNA (中央社) — 中國海警船闖東沙限制水域 海巡統計115年已驅離12次
  36. Taipei Times — China ramps up cyberattacks for potential election meddling: officials
  37. BleepingComputer — DHS bans DeepSeek products across US federal civilian agencies
  38. Taipei Times (AFP) — US prohibits use of China's DeepSeek by government
  39. The Next Web — China proposes export controls on its advanced AI models and chip designs
  40. The National — China targets AI technology exports with new controls as US trade truce frays
  41. Fortune — China's chip sector is making breakthroughs, and U.S. export controls are the reasons why
  42. The Record — Suspected Chinese espionage attackers abusing BeyondTrust IT support zero-day
  43. Hong Kong Free Press (AFP) — China announces sanctions on Belize, Paraguay ministers over Taiwan ties
  44. ABC News (AP) — China sanctions Paraguay and Belize officials over ties with Taiwan
  45. IT之家 — 海关总署：中国 9 月集成电路出口 449.51 亿美元，同比增长 136%
  46. Investing.com (Reuters) — China September rare earth exports rise 6.7% from a year earlier
  47. Korea JoongAng Daily (Yonhap) — Kospi plunges 5.5% as Samsung, SK hynix lead AI-driven tech sell-off
  48. Focus Taiwan (CNA) — U.S. launches Section 337 probe involving Taiwan firms (11 October 2026)
  49. Crypto Briefing — Super Micro contractor pleads guilty in Nvidia AI chip rerouting scheme (9 October 2026)
  50. EU Alive — Šefčovič returns from Beijing with limited hybrid cars and rare earths deal
  51. Euronews — EU and China clinch deal over cars after heated trade talks
  52. The Chokepoint — China's Rare Earth Exports Went Up. Terbium to Japan Went to Zero.
  53. CSIS — Rare Earth Export Restrictions One Year Later
  54. Security Affairs — AI-Driven tool ARTEX used in attacks against South Korean Banks
  55. Nikkei Asia — China Golden Week spending per trip hits 4-year low as overseas travel jumps
  56. Xinhua (state media) — China records 826 mln domestic tourist trips during 2026 National Day holiday
  57. EFY — Potential US Curbs Bears Down on Chinese Optical Chip Stocks
  58. Taipei Times — Taiwan spots first China militia boat in east
  59. BleepingComputer — FBI disrupts Chinese hacking tools used to breach critical infrastructure
  60. The Record — International coalition seizes tools used by cyber firm behind Flax Typhoon
  61. The Manila Times (AFP) — PH flags near-doubling of Chinese presence in disputed waters
  62. Taipei Times (AFP) — Manila flags near-doubling of China presence in region
  63. Philstar — DFA rejects China's claim over Batanes waters
  64. Taipei Times (Bloomberg) — Chinese Blackwell deal revealed
  65. Investing.com — Chinese state funds backed purchases of restricted Nvidia AI chips, report says
  66. NBC News — US and China extend trade truce
  67. Bloomberg (Yahoo News Singapore) — Man charged by US with illegally shipping Nvidia chips to China
  68. The Register — Californian accused of shipping $300M worth of Nvidia chips to China
  69. The Hacker News — OpenAI Disrupts Reasoning Extraction Campaign Linked to Moonshot AI
  70. Wccftech — Moonshot AI tried to crack OpenAI's encrypted reasoning through 16,000 requests
  71. Resultsense — OpenAI links model-distillation campaign to Moonshot AI
  72. Symantec (security.com) — Warlock Ransomware Attackers Hit Water and Telecom Operators
  73. BleepingComputer — Warlock ransomware breach SharePoint in water, telecom operator attacks
  74. The Hacker News — Warlock Exploits SharePoint Flaws to Disable Security Tools and Deploy Ransomware
  75. Huawei — Huawei and Qualcomm Announce Broad Patent License Agreement
  76. TechSpot — Qualcomm signs its first 5G patent deal with Huawei, and agrees to buy some of its US patents
  77. Yahoo News — US, China agree to extend trade truce by two months, Bessent says

Related events

05/1116:34MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificMoonshot offered a premium to rent Blackwell chips from European clouds04/11MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificJapan criticises Chinese rare-earth curbs at APEC ahead of Shenzhen summit03/11MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificUS holds back equipment licences for SK Hynix's Dalian expansion03/11MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificNvidia wants cloud partners' new contracts to be majority non-Chinese02/11MediumII Cyber & InfrastructureAsia-PacificChinese research ships linger over Taiwan's and Japan's undersea cables02/11MediumIII Conflict & DefenceAsia-PacificChina's coast guard makes patrols east of Taiwan routine31/10MediumIV Macro & DebtAsia-PacificChina's factory index misses forecasts and slips back into contraction30/10MediumI Geo-EconomicsTürkiye and Its NeighbourhoodAnkara Declaration pledges to link Zangezur to the Middle Corridor29/10HighIII Conflict & DefenceAsia-PacificFifth Plenum leaves China's military command to Xi and a single general29/10MediumI Geo-EconomicsSub-Saharan AfricaCongo's export quota cuts Glencore's cobalt output by more than half

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