HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence29 October 2026, Thursday
Sudan accuses Ethiopia of hosting bases for 162 drone strikes
At a briefing in Khartoum on 28 October, Sudan's government claimed that 162 drone strikes were launched from Ethiopian territory, including bases at Bahir Dar and Assosa. It says the strikes killed more than 400 civilians and 102 soldiers; none of the claims could be independently verified.
Dabanga reported on 29 October that defence, foreign affairs, information and intelligence officials gave a joint briefing on 28 October. Foreign ministry undersecretary Muawiya Osman Khalid said Sudan was pursuing 'strategic patience' but would not compromise on sovereignty. Defence minister Hassan Dawoud Kabroun said more than 20 countries were backing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF, the paramilitary force fighting the army) with money, drones and mercenaries. He named only Ethiopia and the UAE.
Officials said 13 locations had been hit, including Ed Damazin, Sennar, Kosti and El Obeid, and that flight paths ran along the border with South Sudan. According to Dabanga, the aircraft said to have been downed included the Chinese-made CH-95 and the Turkish-made Bayraktar Akıncı and TB2. The Rio Times reports that the Markhiyat power station in Omdurman was knocked out on 27 October. On 28 October the power station and fuel depot at El Manaqil were struck, along with a fuel depot and pipeline linked to Port Bashayer.
The claims were presented with flight data, satellite imagery and drone fragments; both sources note that none of this could be independently verified. Ethiopia and the UAE had not responded as of 29 October. The UAE has previously denied backing the RSF, and Sudan recalled its ambassador to Addis Ababa in May 2026. According to Polymarket data cited by The Rio Times, the probability of a ceasefire by 31 December was priced at 11.5% on 29 October.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Khartoum is regionalising the RSF's drone campaign against energy infrastructure by recasting it from civil war into an interstate breach of sovereignty. Until the claims of 162 strikes and more than 400 deaths are verified, they remain a tool of diplomatic pressure. The most likely path is not direct Sudan–Ethiopia conflict but the case moving to the African Union and the UN while power station attacks continue.
Likely effects
- Sudan's power gridNegativeWeeks
The strikes on the Omdurman and El Manaqil power stations on 27–28 October directly disrupt returns to the capital region, irrigation and water pumping.
- Horn of Africa securityNegative1–6 months
Naming Bahir Dar and Assosa adds a new sovereignty claim to Sudan–Ethiopia relations already strained by the ambassador's recall in May.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Listing the Akıncı and TB2 among downed aircraft could draw Turkish drone exports into a reputational and end-use monitoring debate over Sudan.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Diplomatic escalation, military stasis60%
Sudan takes the accusation to the African Union and the UN, Ethiopia denies it, drone strikes continue but no direct border clash follows.
Watch: A Sudanese letter to the UN Security Council or a formal reply from Ethiopia's foreign ministry
- 2Direct contact on the border25%
The Sudanese army targets alleged launch points near the Ethiopian border, and an incident occurs between the two armies.
Watch: Sudan claiming a strike on Ethiopian territory or the closure of land border crossings
- 3The evidence collapses15%
An independent review does not support the launch-point claim, and the accusation fades from the agenda.
Watch: Flight-path findings from the UN panel of experts or an independent open-source investigation
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Alleged drone strikes▼ 162
- Alleged civilian deaths▼ 400+