LowV Technology Geopolitics & AI23 September 2026, Wednesday
South Korean President Lee pledges in New York to double chip production capacity in 5 years and build a shock-resistant AI supply chain
At the Korea Investment Summit in New York on 23 September, Lee Jae Myung said they would double semiconductor production capacity within 5 years by expanding the chip manufacturing hub and build AI supply chains unaffected by external shocks. Under the June plan, Samsung and SK Hynix are allocating 800 trillion won to new fabs.
According to a Korea Times report dated 24 September (Korean time), Lee told the summit, attended also by Warburg Pincus president Geithner and BlackRock CEO Fink, that they would double chip production capacity in 5 years, referring to the 3 mega projects launched at the start of the year. According to an FMT report based on Yonhap, Lee said a Future Fund would be set up to channel profits from the AI chip boom into infrastructure and human capital, and that they would attract foreign investment through a 24-hour foreign exchange market and legal changes enhancing shareholder value. Lee said that in his meeting with Trump the previous day they had discussed cooperation on shipbuilding, particularly the construction of US naval vessels; no dollar amount was disclosed for the meeting.
According to a 29 June 2026 Al Jazeera report, the government's plan, totalling more than 1,000 trillion won, includes 800 trillion won ($518 billion) from Samsung and SK Hynix for new fabs, 81 trillion won ($52.5 billion) for a chip packaging cluster and an initial 550 trillion won ($356 billion) for AI data centres; data centre capacity is targeted to exceed 18.4 GW in 2035. According to the same report, the opposition considers the channelling of investment to south-western regions, which back Lee at 85%, to be politically motivated. As no new investment amount or capacity figure was given for the 5-year target in New York, how the target will be measured could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Lee's 5-year capacity target turns the plan of more than 1,000 trillion won announced in June into a growth promise aimed at US investors; however, no new amount or metric was given in New York. The realism of the target depends on Samsung and SK Hynix's 800 trillion won fab timetable and on the supply chain being protected under US–China export controls.
Likely effects
- Memory supplyPositive6 months+
If capacity is doubled, the AI-driven tightness in memory supply could ease over a 5-year horizon and Korea's share of the global chip market would rise.
- US–Korea economic relationsUncertain1–6 months
Lee's call for US investment and emphasis on naval shipbuilding cooperation show that Seoul is using chips together with the security card in bargaining with Washington.
- Türkiye's chip accessPositive6 months+
A capacity increase in Korea could mean wider supply options over the medium term for Turkish electronics and data centre investors dependent on memory and chip imports.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Plan proceeds on schedule55%
Samsung and SK Hynix continue fab investments, and the government submits the Future Fund's legal framework to parliament.
Watch: Future Fund bill and fab construction timetables
- 2Memory cycle slows30%
The rise in memory prices slows, companies defer investment timetables and the 5-year target slips.
Watch: DRAM and NAND contract prices
- 3External shock15%
US export controls or Chinese mineral restrictions disrupt the supply chain and the target is revised.
Watch: US licensing decisions on Korean fabs in China
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Chip production capacity target▲ 2x in 5 years
- Samsung+SK Hynix fab investment▲ 800 trillion won
- AI data centre target (2035)▲ over 18.4 GW