MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints22 October 2026, Thursday
Suez authority says Maersk will fully return by March 2027
The Suez Canal Authority says Maersk hopes to bring all its services back to the canal by March 2027. A Maersk spokesperson said no timetable had been announced. The carrier routes 9 of its 14 services through Suez, and its transits rose from 146 to 276 over 9 months.
According to a Suez Canal Authority statement on 20 October, Maersk's operations director Rabab Boulos said the group hoped to return all its services to the canal by March 2027. Riviera reported on 22 October that a Maersk spokesperson said no timetable for a full return or new service changes had been announced, and that decisions depend on safe operating conditions. Maersk currently runs 9 of its 14 services via Suez.
According to the Canal Authority, Maersk-linked vessels made 276 transits in the first 9 months of 2026, carrying about 23 million net tons; in the same period of 2025 the figures were 146 transits and 7 million tons. Alphaliner data cited by Riviera show that roughly 63% of the 8.7 million TEU deployed on the Far East–Europe trade now uses the Red Sea. Linerlytica says weekly transits by ships above 4,000 TEU have approached 50.
The measures paint different pictures. EnterpriseAM reports that industry analyst Lars Jensen estimates only 30–35% of the market has returned to the normal Suez routing; that figure measures a return to normal routing, not capacity share. Hapag-Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen expects almost all Gemini services to be back in the canal in the first quarter of 2027 if conditions hold. According to an Al Jazeera report cited by EnterpriseAM, the Houthis targeted Aden airport with a missile on 21 October, the third attack on Aden in a week.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Container lines are returning to Suez, but it is the Canal Authority, not the carrier, that is announcing the timetable. The Maersk spokesperson's caution shows the return remains reversible while the Houthis keep attacking Aden and Saudi targets. The most likely path is a continued gradual return, with the full return slipping into 2027.
Likely effects
- Suez revenuePositive1–6 months
Maersk transits rose from 146 to 276 over 9 months; the return supports Egypt's foreign-currency earnings.
- Container freightPositive1–6 months
63% of Far East–Europe capacity is on the Red Sea; shorter round voyages could create surplus capacity and weigh on freight rates.
- Turkish portsPositive1–6 months
Services back on the Suez route call more often at Eastern Mediterranean transhipment hubs, opening a volume opportunity for Turkish ports.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual return continues55%
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd move services to the canal one by one, and the full return slips to the first quarter of 2027.
Watch: Maersk announcing the first Suez sailing for its AE12 service
- 2Return stalls30%
An attack on a merchant ship in the Red Sea sends lines back round the Cape of Good Hope.
Watch: A UKMTO report of a merchant-ship incident in the Bab el-Mandeb
- 3Return accelerates15%
A ceasefire on the Houthi front brings all major lines back to the canal by the end of 2026.
Watch: The Suez Canal Authority's monthly transit count
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Maersk transits (9 months)▲ 276
- Capacity using the Red Sea▲ 63%
- Back on normal routing (Jensen)▼ 30–35%
Historical context