MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security20 October 2026, Tuesday

Norwegian gas output falls 6.7% short of forecast in September

Preliminary data released by the Norwegian Offshore Directorate on 20 October put September gas output at 298.4 million cubic metres a day, 6.7% below the forecast of 319.9 million. The drop from August was about 12.6%.

Location: NORTH SEA

Reuters, in a 20 October report carried by Baird Maritime, said Norway produced 298.4 million cubic metres of gas a day in September against the Norwegian Offshore Directorate's forecast of 319.9 million. Output was above the 283.9 million of a year earlier but, by OilPrice.com's calculation, 12.6% down on roughly 341.6 million cubic metres in August. Total oil and gas production came to 3.77 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, 4% below forecast. Directorate figures cited by Energy-pedia show gas sales fell by 1.6 billion cubic metres from August to 9.0 billion cubic metres.

Liquids met the forecast in September. Crude output of 1.73 million barrels a day was 0.7% above forecast, though below 1.89 million a year earlier. Oil, NGL and condensate together came to about 1.90 million barrels a day, against 2.073 million in August. Total production in the first 9 months reached 181.7 million standard cubic metres of oil equivalent, running 5.1 million ahead of 2025.

How much of the gas shortfall stems from maintenance cannot be separated out from the directorate's 20 October data; that split could not be verified. OilPrice.com says Gassco warned at the end of August that maintenance could cut export capacity by about 20% until late September, and confirmed on 1 October that the main planned work had finished. The extended outage at Shell-operated Ormen Lange is expected to reduce deliveries by about 7.9 million cubic metres a day until 1 February 2027. Norway meets about 30% of EU and UK gas demand. OilPrice.com says European storage was 74% full this week, against more than 86% a year earlier.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Much of September's gas shortfall can be explained by Gassco's planned maintenance, which ended on 1 October, so on its own it is not a structural break. But Ormen Lange delivering 7.9 million cubic metres a day less until 1 February 2027 leaves a hole that lasts all winter. The most likely path is October output returning to the 330–340 million range without closing the gap in storage stuck at 74%.

Likely effects

European gasNegativeWeeks
Norway covers about 30% of EU and UK demand; the 21.5 million cubic metre daily gap against forecast in September directly slowed storage injections.
Winter supply securityNegative1–6 months
Storage stands at 74% against more than 86% a year ago; with the Ormen Lange outage lasting until February, the pipeline gas buffer narrows through the winter.
TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
As Europe leans on Atlantic LNG, Türkiye will compete for the same cargoes at higher prices when it looks for spot LNG for the winter.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Post-maintenance recovery60%
October output moves back towards August levels and the shortfall proves temporary, though the Ormen Lange loss persists.
Watch: The directorate's preliminary October data, due in mid-November
2
A partial recovery30%
October gas stays below 320 million cubic metres a day and unplanned outages spill into winter.
Watch: Gassco's unplanned outage notices and daily nominations
3
Output beats forecast10%
Fields back from maintenance run above capacity and October output tops 345 million cubic metres a day.
Watch: Gas beating forecast in the preliminary October data

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

September gas output▼ 298.4m m3/d
Deviation from forecast▼ −6.7%
EU storage fill▼ 74%

Historical context