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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionSouth Asia

MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday

Pakistan says it killed 13 Afghan Taliban personnel in Gulistan; Kabul says no losses and claims it struck a Pakistani post at Spin Boldak

Pakistan's Information Ministry said it had repelled an Afghan attack in Balochistan's Gulistan sector on the night of 24 September and killed at least 13 Afghan Taliban personnel. The Afghan Defence Ministry rejected the claim, saying there were no losses and that it had destroyed a Pakistani post near Spin Boldak; Pakistan denied this too.

Location: GULISTAN

According to Dawn, the Afghan Taliban attempted on 24 September to enter Pakistani territory and attack border posts in Balochistan's Gulistan sector; Pakistani forces responded and intermittent fighting continued past midnight. According to an AP report, Pakistan's Information Ministry announced on X that at least 13 Afghan Taliban personnel had been killed and many wounded. The Afghan Defence Ministry denied Pakistan's account, saying there were no losses on the Afghan side and that it had destroyed a Pakistani post near Spin Boldak, opposite Chaman; Pakistan rejected this claim. AP reported that it could not independently verify either side's casualty claims and that there was relative calm on the border on 25 September.

The clash came immediately after Pakistan's air and drone strikes on 10 locations in Kandahar, Paktia and Khost on 24 September. Pakistan linked those strikes to 8 drones that entered its airspace near Torkham and Kohat on 23 September; the Taliban denied sending drones, and spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said 4 civilians had been killed in the strikes. According to Anewz, the tension began on 21 September with Pakistani strikes following an attack on a police facility in Kohat and a roadside bomb in Hangu that killed 6 soldiers; Pakistan said it killed 28 militants in those strikes, while the Afghan side said 3 civilians were killed. Al Jazeera wrote that the escalation threatens mediation efforts by China, Türkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

After three rounds of Pakistani air strikes since 21 September, the fighting has moved to the land border for the first time; the two sides' casualty claims differ as sharply as 13 versus 0, and neither can be verified. Kabul giving concrete form to its pledge of retaliation with the Spin Boldak claim shows that both capitals feel compelled to demonstrate to domestic audiences that they are not backing down.

Likely effects

  • Border tradeNegativeWeeks

    The fighting taking place in a sector close to the Chaman–Spin Boldak line, and Kabul's claim to have struck a post opposite Spin Boldak, raise the risk of disruption to crossings on this stretch of the border.

  • Pakistani securityNegative1–6 months

    While TTP-linked attacks and drone violations continue, Pakistan is likely to repeat cross-border air strikes; this feeds the cycle of mutual escalation.

  • Türkiye's mediationUncertainWeeks

    The mediation Türkiye is conducting together with China, Qatar and Saudi Arabia is being tested again by the first land clash since the fighting in February.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Limited mutual clashes55%

    Intermittent border clashes and selective air strikes continue for a few weeks without turning into full-scale war.

    Watch: Whether the Chaman and Torkham crossings stay open

  2. 2
    Ceasefire via mediators25%

    With Türkiye, Qatar and China stepping in, the two sides announce a new round of talks and a ceasefire.

    Watch: Announcement of talks between the parties in Doha or Istanbul

  3. 3
    February-scale escalation20%

    Mutual attacks grow, border crossings close for an extended period and civilian casualties rise.

    Watch: Pakistan targeting the Kabul area or an Afghan drone strike

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Pakistan's death toll claim▲ 13
  • Losses per the Afghan side▼ 0
  • Locations struck on 24 Sep▲ 10

Sources

  1. Dawn — Security forces kill several Afghan Taliban fighters in retaliatory action along Balochistan border
  2. AP (ClickOnDetroit) — 13 Afghan Taliban personnel killed in overnight border clash, Pakistan says; Kabul denies the claim
  3. Al Jazeera — Pakistani forces kill Afghan Taliban fighters in border escalation
  4. Anewz — Fresh border clashes deepen Pakistan–Afghanistan tensions