MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt21 October 2026, Wednesday
Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over Lula shrinks to one point in Quaest poll
Ahead of the 25 October runoff, a Quaest poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro on 45% and Lula on 44%, inside the ±2-point margin of error. Prediction markets are far more decisive, giving Flávio a 79–80% chance.
The Quaest poll for Globo, taken ahead of the 25 October runoff, has Flávio Bolsonaro on 45% and Lula on 44%. It surveyed 2,154 voters between 17 and 20 October, with a margin of error of ±2 points. A week earlier the split was 46% to 44%. On valid votes Flávio stands at 50.6% against Lula's 49.4%, a gap that remains within the margin of error.
Both candidates carry rejection rates above 47%. Quaest data cited by the Rio Times show 46% approving of the Lula government and 47% disapproving, against 45% and 48% a week earlier. Agenda do Poder puts rejection at 47% for Lula and 52% for Flávio. Some 9% of voters say they will cast a blank or spoiled ballot, and 2% remain undecided.
Prediction markets painted a firmer picture on the evening of 21 October, with Polymarket pricing Flávio's chances at 80% and Kalshi at 79%. A new Datafolha poll is due on 22 October, and the final Quaest and Datafolha surveys on 24 October. According to the Rio Times market table, the dollar closed 0.11% lower against the real at 5.0278 on 20 October. The currency remains calm despite the electoral uncertainty.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The polls show a dead heat, yet prediction markets treat Flávio as the clear favourite. That gap means a surprise result could be repriced sharply in the market. With both candidates' rejection rates above 47%, the winner will have to build a fiscal consolidation programme with a divided electorate. A narrow margin could keep the result contested well beyond 25 October.
Likely effects
- Brazilian realUncertainWeeks
The dollar is steady against the real at 5.0278. Because markets give a Flávio win a 79–80% probability, a surprise Lula victory could trigger sharp moves in the currency and interest-rate futures.
- Public financesNegative1–6 months
Whichever candidate wins, with rejection rates of 47–52%, will struggle to secure congressional support for spending cuts.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Flávio wins narrowly55%
His 1–2 point edge in the latest polls carries through to the ballot box and the currency stays calm.
Watch: The final Quaest and Datafolha polls due on 24 October
- 2Lula wins narrowly35%
The narrowing in Quaest continues, prediction-market pricing reverses and the real weakens on the first day.
Watch: Lula topping 50% of valid votes in the 22 October Datafolha poll
- 3Result is contested10%
The margin stays below 1 point and the losing side is slow to concede.
Watch: An official margin below 1 point on the night of 25 October
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Flávio Bolsonaro (Quaest)▲ 45%
- Lula (Quaest)▼ 44%
- Polymarket Flávio odds▲ 80%
- Dollar/real (20 Oct)▼ 5.0278