MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI8 October 2026, Thursday
Samsung's quarterly operating profit tops 100 trillion won for the first time
Samsung Electronics reported preliminary third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, about $80bn, on 8 October. Profit rose 782.5% year on year and 20% quarter on quarter, while revenue came in at 195 trillion won.
The Korea Herald reported on 8 October that Samsung's third-quarter operating profit reached 107.4 trillion won, beating the previous quarter's record of 89.4 trillion won. Revenue rose 126.6% year on year to 195 trillion won. Full financial statements and a divisional breakdown will be released later in October. TrendForce says it is the first time a Korean company's quarterly operating profit has exceeded 100 trillion won.
In TrendForce's preview on 7 October, the market expected profit of 105.41 trillion won and revenue of 200.26 trillion won. Profit beat expectations by about 2 trillion won, while revenue fell short by about 5 trillion won. TechTimes reported on 7 October that the won rose 14.3% against the dollar in the third quarter. Goldman Sachs had cut its profit forecast from 112 trillion won to 106 trillion won because of this currency effect.
Throughout 2026 profit has come from memory prices rather than capacity. TrendForce expects the memory business's operating margin could exceed 80% and DRAM contract prices to rise 10–15% in the fourth quarter. According to TechTimes, that increase is well below the jump of about 60% in the second quarter. The same 7 October report said a growing share of OEMs and ODMs, firms that build devices under their own brand or for others, have started sourcing standard DRAM and NAND from Chinese suppliers.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The record profit shows the memory cycle is still being carried by prices. Revenue below expectations is the first sign of a strong won and slowing price growth. If DRAM price increases ease to 10–15% in the fourth quarter, profit growth will slow too. The most likely path is that profit stays high while its rate of growth declines.
Likely effects
- Memory pricesNegativeWeeks
Samsung's memory margin, approaching 80%, shows supply still trails demand; memory costs stay high for firms building AI servers.
- Korean exports and the wonUncertain1–6 months
Memory profits boost Korea's external earnings, but a won that appreciated 14.3% in the quarter erodes exporters' profits when dollar revenue is converted.
- Electronics costs in TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Persistently high memory prices keep up the cost of the computers, phones and servers Türkiye imports.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Profit high, growth slows55%
DRAM prices keep rising in the fourth quarter but at a slower pace; profit stays high while quarterly growth narrows.
Watch: Samsung's full results in late October and TrendForce's fourth-quarter DRAM contract price data
- 2The price cycle accelerates again30%
The transition to HBM4 and demand for AI servers reaccelerate prices, and profit expectations are revised up.
Watch: Next-quarter pricing guidance from SK hynix and Micron
- 3Chinese competition breaks prices15%
Chinese producers gain share in standard DRAM and price increases stop earlier than expected.
Watch: CXMT capacity announcements and standard DRAM spot prices
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Quarterly operating profit▲ 107.4trn won
- Annual profit growth▲ 782.5%
- Revenue (forecast 200.26trn)▼ 195trn won