HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence23 September 2026, Wednesday
Tigrayan forces seize Mekelle airport and Ethiopian Airlines suspends flights to 3 cities: the 2022 Pretoria peace has effectively collapsed
Tigrayan forces seized Mekelle airport overnight on 23 September; the state carrier suspended flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum. The move, coming 3 days after the TPLF declared an anti-government alliance with 6 armed groups, has effectively ended the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement.
According to a CNBC Africa report published at 10:41 GMT on 23 September and based on 3 local sources, Tigrayan forces seized Mekelle, the region's main airport, overnight; Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum, citing 'the current situation in the Tigray region'. OkayAfrica's daily round-up of 23 September, however, writes that all three airports (Mekelle, Axum, Shire) have fallen to Tigrayan forces; control of the Axum and Shire airports could not be independently verified. Federal government and TPLF spokespeople did not comment in the first hours. While the Tigray administration described the move as a 'defensive war', Getachew Reda, an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy and a former TPLF leader, claimed the group had launched an all-out offensive against Afar and Amhara.
The development followed the TPLF's formation on Sunday 20 September of an alliance with 6 armed groups aimed at toppling the Abiy government; Prime Minister's Office spokesperson Billene Seyoum had claimed on 21 September that the alliance was receiving funding from Eritrea. US Ambassador to Addis Ababa Ervin Massinga on 23 September described the large-scale offensive in Tigray and Afar as 'a bad decision' and 'an unwinnable fight', and warned of further sanctions on leaders obstructing peace. The 2020–2022 war claimed hundreds of thousands of lives; according to OkayAfrica, about 750,000 people remain displaced in Tigray. A Catholic Relief Services convoy carrying more than 41,000 tonnes of food aid was reportedly struck by a drone in Tigray over the weekend.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The fall of Mekelle airport and the suspension of flights show that the Pretoria Agreement now exists only on paper. Fronts opened simultaneously by the 7-group alliance are dividing the federal army's strength, while Addis Ababa is framing the conflict as a regional crisis by blaming Eritrea. The most likely path is several weeks of intense fighting in the north and a further narrowing of humanitarian access.
Likely effects
- Humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks
The suspension of flights and the drone strike on an aid convoy are narrowing aid access to Tigray, where about 750,000 people remain displaced.
- Regional securityNegative1–6 months
Addis Ababa's linking of the alliance to Eritrea raises the risk of the conflict turning into inter-state tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea; the possibility of it intersecting with the war in Sudan along the border also emerges.
- Red Sea and TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
A new war front in the Horn of Africa raises perceived risk along the Red Sea corridor, indirectly affecting trade via Suez and countries with an economic presence in the region, such as Türkiye.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Protracted fighting in the north55%
Federal forces respond with air power, and fronts in Tigray and Afar change hands over several weeks; flights remain suspended.
Watch: Whether Ethiopian Airlines resumes Mekelle services, and reports of fighting from Afar
- 2Ceasefire through AU mediation25%
Under US sanctions pressure and an African Union initiative, the parties return to talks and the front freezes on current lines.
Watch: An African Union announcement of a new round of talks between the parties
- 3Ethiopia–Eritrea conflict20%
Addis Ababa targets Eritrea directly, and the conflict widens into a border war between the two states.
Watch: Reports of a federal army build-up on the Eritrean border or a cross-border strike
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Airports with flights suspended▼ 3
- Displaced in Tigray▼ ~750,000