HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints28 September 2026, Monday
Tigrayan forces push through Afar towards Ethiopia's Djibouti trade route
TPLF forces captured Erebti in the Afar region on 27 September after heavy artillery fire and are advancing on Afdeera, about 100 km to the east. The target is the Djibouti corridor, which carries almost all of Ethiopia's foreign trade.
According to Euronews and France 24 reports on 28 September, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) took the town of Erebti in Afar on 27 September after heavy artillery bombardment. Its forces are advancing towards Afdeera, about 100 km to the east. According to Euronews, the offensive aims to cut supplies arriving via the Djibouti corridor. The corridor carries almost all of Ethiopia's international trade, including fuel. At least 150,000 people have been displaced in Afar, though no precise figure is available.
The front is not moving in one direction only. According to Africanews, the Tigray Peace Force, aligned with the federal government, announced on 28 September that Alamata had been taken. The town sits on the main highway into the region in southern Tigray. The conflict monitor ACLED also confirmed that federal forces had captured the town. According to Al Jazeera, phone and internet services in Tigray have been cut since 25 September. The Tigrai TV building in Mekelle was hit by a drone on 27 September. A figure of about 500,000 troops for the federal army is an estimate cited by France 24.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The TPLF's advance in Afar is carrying the war beyond Tigray's borders to the lifeline of the Ethiopian economy. If the Djibouti corridor is cut, fuel and import flows stop, turning the conflict into an economic siege more than a military one. The federal recapture of Alamata shows the front is balanced; the outcome will depend on who holds the Afdeera axis.
Likely effects
- Ethiopian fuel supplyNegativeWeeks
Because most fuel arrives via the Djibouti corridor, any disruption on this route directly raises the risk of fuel shortages and price rises in Addis Ababa.
- Port of DjiboutiNegative1–6 months
Reduced flows along the corridor that carries almost all of Ethiopia's foreign trade also risk lowering transit volumes at the port of Djibouti.
- Humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks
The displacement of at least 150,000 people in Afar and the communications blackout are making it harder for aid to get through.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Corridor stays under threat50%
The TPLF keeps up pressure towards Afdeera but cannot cut the corridor; supplies continue, albeit with delays.
Watch: Reports of fighting around Afdeera and traffic on the Djibouti highway
- 2Corridor is cut30%
The TPLF takes Afdeera and cuts road supplies from Djibouti; fuel shortages begin in Ethiopia.
Watch: Reports of fuel queues and rationing in Addis Ababa
- 3Federal counter-offensive20%
After Alamata, federal forces also retake Erebti and push the TPLF back to the Tigray border.
Watch: ACLED or government confirmation that Erebti has been retaken
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Displaced in Afar▼ At least 150,000
- Erebti–Afdeera distance▼ About 100 km
Sources
- Euronews — Tigray rebels push into Afar as Ethiopia blames neighbours
- Africanews — Ethiopia fighting intensifies as government forces retake Alamata
- Al Jazeera — Ethiopia accuses Sudan, Egypt of backing Tigray rebels as fighting rages
- France 24 — Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan of backing Tigray rebels amid clashes