MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints25 September 2026, Friday
EU gas storage reached 70.3% on 23 September: 15.7 points below the five-year average and 11.7 below 2025; Germany stuck at 57%
According to trackers based on GIE AGSI+ data, EU gas storage reached 796 TWh on 23 September, 70.3% full. The fill level is 11.7 points below the 82.0% of a year earlier and 15.7 points below the five-year average; Germany and the Netherlands are at around 57%.
According to Voltstack's tracker dated 25 September, EU storage on gas day 23 September held 796 TWh of its 1,132 TWh capacity, or 70.3%. This is 11.7 points below the 82.0% recorded on the same day in 2025, 15.7 points below the 2021–2025 average of 86.0%, and also below the five-year low of 72.6%. Global Energy Flow gives 70.35% and 796.11 TWh for the same day and measures the daily injection rate at roughly 0.21 points.
By country, Gasspeicher.app, using 25 September data, shows Germany at 57.12%, the Netherlands at 57.13%, Austria at 67.64%, France at 81.79% and Italy at 86.27% full; Germany's level is 19.3 points lower than on the same day in 2025. Sources diverge on the target: Global Energy Flow writes that the daily rate of 0.21 points falls slightly short of the relaxed 80% target for 1 November, while Voltstack states that 20 points must be added in 36 days to reach roughly 90% and that, from the current base, winter preparedness appears on track.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Europe is entering winter entirely below its five-year range: the 70.3% fill level trails even the five-year low by 2.3 points, and Germany, the largest consumer, is at 57%. At a daily injection rate of 0.21 points, only around 80% can be reached by 1 November; this raises the risk of a price shock should the winter turn cold or LNG be diverted to Asia.
Likely effects
- European energy pricesNegative1–6 months
Stocks 15.7 points below the five-year average leave the TTF price highly sensitive to LNG flows and weather conditions throughout the winter.
- German industryNegative1–6 months
Germany's 57% fill level is 19.3 points lower than in 2025; in a cold winter it could bring demand curtailment for energy-intensive industry onto the agenda.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
If Europe's winter purchases intensify competition in the LNG market, Türkiye's spot LNG import costs also risk rising.
Possibilities, ranked
- 178–82% band on 1 November60%
The current daily rate of 0.21 points is maintained and storage enters winter around the relaxed 80% target.
Watch: AGSI+ daily injection rate and LNG cargo arrivals
- 2Injection slows, below 75%25%
LNG diverted to Asia or an early cold spell slows injection, and the fill level stays below 75%.
Watch: Asia–Europe LNG price spread and October weather forecasts
- 3Acceleration, above 85%15%
Additional LNG supply and mild weather speed up daily injection, and the fill level exceeds 85%.
Watch: Daily injection exceeding 0.3 points
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- EU gas storage fill level▼ 70.3% (23 Sep)
- Gap to five-year average▼ −15.7 points
- Germany fill level▼ 57.1%
Historical context