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MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday

EU reaches agreement on 6.6 billion euro European Peace Facility package frozen by Hungary's veto since spring 2023; fate of 4.7 billion unclear

On 25 September in Brussels, EU member states agreed to split the 6.6 billion euro European Peace Facility package, held up by Hungary's veto since spring 2023, into 4.7 billion € in reimbursements, 1 billion € in joint procurement and 900 million € for a training mission. The final decision was left to Monday's meeting of defence ministers.

Location: BRUSSELS

According to a Euronews report dated 25 September, the agreement was reached in the EU's Political and Security Committee; the legal texts must still be adopted separately for the funds to be released. The 4.7 billion euro portion of the package will cover the costs of member states that have delivered weapons to Ukraine, 1 billion euros will go to new joint equipment procurement and 900 million euros to the military assistance mission (EUMAM) that trains Ukrainian soldiers on EU territory. High Representative Kaja Kallas described the decision as 'good news for Ukraine, bad news for Russia'.

According to Euronews, Hungary imposed the veto in May 2023 in response to Ukraine placing OTP Bank on its list of 'international sponsors of war'; the veto was lifted after Péter Magyar won the April 2026 election. According to a European Pravda report of 25 September, how the 4.7 billion euros will be distributed among member states and how much of it will be passed on to Ukraine has not yet been resolved; Germany argues that the full amount should go to Kyiv, but not all members share this view. Agence Europe also reports that some members have announced they will transfer their shares to Ukraine.

The timing is critical for Kyiv: according to Euronews, the Ukrainian Defence Ministry's financing gap stands at 23.67 billion euros, and Zelenskiy said the budget for drones to be delivered in the first quarter of 2027 must be settled between October and November 2026. The 6.6 billion euros corresponds to about 28% of this gap; however, the net amount to be channelled directly to Ukraine could not be verified. The date of Monday's meeting could not be clearly confirmed in the sources.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The change of government in Hungary has restarted an EU military instrument worth 6.6 billion euros that had been locked for more than 3 years. However, because the 4.7 billion euro bulk of the package is retroactive reimbursement, the fresh money reaching Kyiv depends on member states' decisions to transfer their shares. Given Ukraine's 23.67 billion euro defence gap, the package does not close the gap; its real significance is that it shows the Budapest obstacle to EU defence decisions requiring unanimity has been removed.

Likely effects

  • Ukraine defence financingPositive1–6 months

    The 1 billion euro joint procurement and the 900 million euro EUMAM share translate directly into capacity; how much of the 4.7 billion euros is transferred will determine the financing of drone deliveries in the first quarter of 2027.

  • EU decision-makingPositive1–6 months

    The lifting of the veto in place since May 2023 signals a reduced risk of Hungary-driven delays in other Ukraine files that require unanimity.

  • Türkiye defence industryUncertain1–6 months

    The 1 billion euro joint procurement portion of the package runs through an intra-EU procurement mechanism; the sources do not state to what extent non-EU manufacturers can benefit from this share.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Approval and partial transfer60%

    Defence ministers approve the package; some members, including Germany, transfer their reimbursement shares to Ukraine, while others take them into their own budgets.

    Watch: The concluding statement of Monday's defence ministers' meeting and country-by-country transfer announcements

  2. 2
    Distribution dispute drags on30%

    Consensus on sharing the 4.7 billion euros is delayed, the legal texts slip past October and Kyiv's October–November timetable is squeezed.

    Watch: The date the legal texts are adopted in the Council

  3. 3
    All of it to Ukraine10%

    Members adopt Germany's proposal and the full 6.6 billion euros is directed to Ukraine.

    Watch: Whether the reimbursement item is removed from the Council decision

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • EU military fund released▲ 6.6 billion €
  • Ukraine defence financing gap▼ 23.67 billion €

Sources

  1. Euronews — EU countries agree to release long-stalled €6.6 billion in military aid for Ukraine
  2. European Pravda — EU countries agree on terms for allocating €6.6 billion from the Peace Facility to Ukraine
  3. Agence Europe — Agreement on allocation of €6.6 billion from European Peace Facility