MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt3 November 2026, Tuesday · 18:00 TRT (UTC+3)
US job openings rise to 7.5 million in September as quits accelerate
Job openings rose to 7.52 million in September, according to JOLTS data released on 3 November by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). August was revised up by 111,000 to 7.2 million.
JOLTS, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, captures labour demand ahead of the payrolls data. According to the BLS, the openings rate was 4.5%, hires totalled 5.4 million and the hires rate was 3.4%. Quits rose to 3.4 million, while the August figure was revised down to 3.0 million. The quits rate held flat at 2.1%, and quits were up 375,000 on the year.
Layoffs stayed contained at 1.6 million, a rate of 1.0%; August layoffs were revised up by 127,000 to 1.8 million. The largest contribution to the rise in openings, 104,000, came from state and local government excluding education. Accommodation and food services accounted for 197,000 of the quits. Workers' willingness to leave their jobs suggests their bargaining power over wages is intact.
According to the WSJ, the data were part of a move on 3 November that took the 2-year yield from 4.581% to 4.612%. A WSJ survey expects ADP private payrolls on 4 November to slow to 75,000 from 90,000 in September. October non-farm payrolls are due on 6 November. A report that consensus had expected 7.1 million openings appears in a single source and could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Openings at 7.52 million and quits at 3.4 million show no collapse in labour demand. That supports expectations of a hike at the Fed's 8–9 December meeting. The uncertainty is that the rise leans on public-sector openings and services; the 6 November payrolls data will test this reading.
Likely effects
- Fed expectationsNegativeWeeks
Firm labour demand strengthens the case for a December hike, and the 2-year yield tends to hold above 4.61%.
- Wage inflationNegative1–6 months
Quits up 375,000 on the year reflect workers' bargaining power; if this passes through to services prices, core inflation will not slow.
- Emerging-market fundingNegative1–6 months
Elevated front-end US rates keep the dollar borrowing floor high for emerging-market issuers, Türkiye included.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Firm demand confirmed55%
October payrolls come in positive, wage growth continues and pricing for a December hike strengthens.
Watch: Non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings on 6 November
- 2A mixed picture30%
Openings stay firm but payrolls disappoint, leaving the Fed's decision to the inflation data.
Watch: ADP coming in well below 75,000
- 3Demand retreats15%
October payrolls turn negative and the September rise in openings proves a one-off driven by the public sector.
Watch: October JOLTS data on 1 December
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Job openings (September)▲ 7.52m
- Quits▲ 3.4m
- US 2-year▲ 4.612%