MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt25 September 2026, Friday

German consumer confidence falls to −30.6 for October, propensity to save at its highest since the 2008 crisis; 10-year Bund 3.61%, 30-year 3.91%

The NIM/GfK consumer climate index fell to −30.6 for October on 25 September; the forecast was −27.4. Income expectations collapsed by 16.7 points to −15.0, and the propensity to save, at 21.5, is at its highest level since 2008. On the same day the 10-year Bund stood at 3.61%.

Location: NUREMBERG

According to 25 September reports by ActionForex and IndexBox, the consumer climate index fell 3.8 points from a revised −26.8 in September to −30.6 for October; the forecast in the Reuters poll was −27.4. The income expectations sub-index fell from 1.7 to −15.0, the propensity to buy slipped from −9.8 to −10.8, while the propensity to save rose from 15.5 to 21.5. Economic expectations improved slightly from −3.9 to −3.4. The survey was conducted among around 2,000 people between 3 and 14 September; NIM noted that most households expect high energy prices to erode their purchasing power.

According to Trading Economics data, the 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.61% on 25 September and is extending its 7th consecutive weekly rise in its highest zone since June 2009; money markets are pricing around 100 basis points of ECB hikes by the end of 2027. According to the same source, the 30-year Bund yield rose 0.04 points to 3.91% on 25 September. According to a 20 September Investinglive report, markets are pricing a 25 basis point increase in the deposit rate to 2.75% at the late-October meeting; Stournaras said an October hike could not be ruled out if energy costs spike, but that the ECB could wait if uncertainty persists.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

In Germany, business confidence is rising while households retreat because of the energy bill: the 16.7-point drop in income expectations and a propensity to save at 2008 levels signal that private consumption will not support growth in the 4th quarter. At the same time the Bund yield is in its highest zone since 2009 and the market is pricing 100 basis points of ECB hikes; the ECB is caught between energy-driven inflation and weakening consumption.

Likely effects

German consumptionNegativeWeeks
Each point of the index corresponds to roughly a 0.1-point change in annual private consumption; −30.6 and a 21.5 propensity to save mean weakening demand for retail and services.
Euro area yieldsNegative1–6 months
With the 10-year Bund at 3.61% and the 30-year at 3.91%, yields have risen for 7 weeks; this floor also pushes up borrowing costs for France and Italy ahead of their 2027 elections.
Türkiye's exportsNegative1–6 months
Households cutting spending in Germany, Türkiye's largest export market, could put pressure on orders for textiles, white goods and automotive components.

Possibilities, ranked

1
ECB hikes in October, consumption stays weak55%
September inflation comes in high, the ECB raises the deposit rate to 2.75% at its late-October meeting, and the Bund stays high.
Watch: Euro area September flash inflation data
2
ECB waits, Bund retreats35%
Weak consumption and uncertainty keep the ECB waiting until the December projections, and yields partly retreat.
Watch: ECB speakers avoiding commitment on October
3
Energy shock deepens10%
A new spike in energy prices raises both inflation and recession risk, and the 30-year Bund exceeds 4%.
Watch: New highs in TTF and Brent

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

GfK consumer climate▼ −30.6 (−3.8 points)
Propensity to save▲ 21.5 (+6.0)
10-year Bund▲ 3.61%
30-year Bund▲ 3.91% (+0.04 pts)

Historical context