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MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt23 September 2026, Wednesday

Demand weakens at German bond auctions: the €5 billion Bobl drew €4.53 billion in bids, and €1.65 billion of €2 billion was allotted in 2047 and 2056 bonds

According to Bundesbank data, the 5-year Bobl auction on 22 September 2026 drew only 4.53 billion euros in bids against 5 billion euros on offer, at an average yield of 3.28%. At the 23 September extended-maturity auction, 2047 and 2056 bonds were sold at yields of 3.78% and 3.80%; 1.65 billion of the 2 billion euros on offer was allotted.

Location: FRANKFURT

According to the Bundesbank auction result of 22 September, a 5,000 million euro increase was targeted for the 2.90% coupon Bobl maturing on 8 October 2031; total bids came to only 4,530 million euros (2,470 million competitive, 2,060 million non-competitive). Allotment was 3,735 million euros, the average yield 3.28% and the cover ratio 1.2; the Federal Finance Agency retained 1,265 million euros, or 25.3% of the increase, on its own account for sale in the secondary market. Total issuance in this series rose to 22,500 million euros.

At the multiple auction on 23 September, the 3.40% coupon 2047 bond drew 1,794 million euros in bids and 869.74 million euros was allotted, at an average yield of 3.78% and a cover ratio of 2.1, with 130.26 million euros retained by the agency. The 2.90% coupon 2056 bond drew 1,241 million euros in bids and 783.60 million euros was allotted, at an average yield of 3.80% and a cover ratio of 1.6, with 216.40 million euros retained by the agency. Newsquawk summarised the auction as 1.65 billion euros sold against a 2 billion euro target.

The same day Newsquawk wrote that the German 10-year yield was at a weekly high and back above 3.50%; ideal-investisseur data, however, show the 10-year Bund yield at 3.46%, the French OAT yield at 4.48% and the spread at 101.7 basis points for 23 September. The two sources conflict on the Bund level. The Federal Government said it would announce its Q4 issuance calendar update on 24 September; the content of the update could not be verified at the time of writing.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

That supply could not be fully covered even for the euro area's safest paper shows investors demanding higher yields amid rate-hike expectations and heavy issuance. Technical undersubscription is occasionally seen at German auctions, but its coincidence with the weak US 5-year auction points to global term-premium pressure. The most likely path is for Bund yields to stay elevated around 3.5%.

Likely effects

  • German borrowing costsNegative1–6 months

    The average yield of 3.80% on the 2056 maturity raises the interest burden on Germany's extended-maturity borrowing and pushes up costs on the 36 billion euro series.

  • French risk premiumNegativeWeeks

    The OAT-Bund spread holding at 101.7 basis points shows that French debt pays an extra premium even as Bund yields rise.

  • Türkiye's euro borrowingNegative1–6 months

    Higher German yields lift the benchmark cost of euro-denominated eurobond issuance by the Treasury and Turkish companies.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Yields high, auctions weak55%

    ECB rate-hike expectations persist and the share retained by the agency stays high at subsequent German auctions.

    Watch: Cover ratios and amounts retained by the agency at October Bobl and Bund auctions

  2. 2
    Demand recovers30%

    Rising yields attract insurers and pension funds, and cover ratios return to normal.

    Watch: The cover ratio rising above 2 at the next extended-maturity auction

  3. 3
    Supply calendar trimmed15%

    The Finance Agency eases pressure by cutting Q4 issuance volume.

    Watch: The Q4 issuance calendar update announced on 24 September

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Bobl bids / supply▼ 4.53 / 5 bn €
  • 2056 Bund auction yield▲ 3.80%
  • OAT-Bund spread▲ 101.7 bp

Sources

  1. Deutsche Bundesbank / Finanzagentur — Reopening of five-year Federal notes, auction result, 22 September 2026
  2. Deutsche Bundesbank / Finanzagentur — Reopening of two Federal bonds, auction result, 23 September 2026
  3. Newsquawk — European Market Wrap - 23rd September 2026
  4. ideal-investisseur — OAT / Bund spread today