MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence5 October 2026, Monday
ASELSAN signs €2.46bn air defence contract for Steel Dome
ASELSAN told the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP) on 5 October that it had signed hybrid air defence supply contracts worth €2.46bn in total with the Defence Industry Agency. It is the second major air defence deal with the same customer in five days.
According to Forbes Türkiye, the KAP filing puts the contracts at €2,460,000,000 in total, covering hybrid air defence systems required by the Turkish Armed Forces. The same report says the Defence Industry Agency (SSB) accounts for 30.6% of ASELSAN's net sales and 37.8% of its trade receivables in the latest financial statements. Hürriyet Daily News put the deal at about $2.75bn and noted that no delivery schedule had been disclosed. It also quoted General Manager Ahmet Akyol as saying the €2.46bn agreement would strengthen the Steel Dome project.
DefenceTurk reports that the company announced a €1.0085bn long-range air defence contract with the same customer on 1 October. On 2 October it disclosed a €488.5m export contract with a foreign user. Together the three contracts come to roughly €3.96bn in five days. The same outlet notes that President Erdoğan announced at the NATO summit an additional $24bn budget for Steel Dome. Steel Dome is a layered defence umbrella, backed by that $24bn supplementary budget, linking air and missile defence systems of different ranges into a single network.
By signing two separate air defence contracts within a week, Türkiye is accelerating domestic procurement. The pace reflects a decision to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers at a time of rising missile and drone threats in the region. With no delivery schedule disclosed, it remains unclear when the €3.96bn in orders will translate into fielded capability.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Back-to-back contracts within a single week show Ankara moving Steel Dome from a budget pledge to the ordering stage. With no delivery schedule disclosed, it remains unclear when the capability will reach the field. The most likely path is further air defence orders through the rest of the year and a growing share for defence spending in the budget.
Likely effects
- Air defence capabilityPositive6 months+
Domestic orders for hybrid and extended-range systems reduce Türkiye's reliance on foreign suppliers and widen its layered defence umbrella.
- Public financesNegative1–6 months
The additional $24bn announced for Steel Dome adds a spending burden to public finances already under pressure from interest costs and the fund liquidation.
- Defence industry concentrationUncertain1–6 months
With roughly a third of sales coming from a single public customer, the sector becomes more dependent on the state's payment schedule.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1New orders follow55%
Further air defence and radar contracts under Steel Dome are announced before the end of the year.
Watch: New KAP contract filings involving the Defence Industry Agency
- 2Schedule becomes clearer30%
Delivery years and deployment dates for the first batteries are announced.
Watch: Any statement from the SSB or the company on the delivery schedule
- 3Budget constraint slows pace15%
Pressure on public finances leads to new orders being postponed.
Watch: Defence appropriations in the 2027 budget proposal
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Hybrid air defence contract▲ €2.46bn
- Five-day contract total▲ ~€3.96bn
- SSB share of sales▼ 30.6%