European gas storage runs 17 points behind the seasonal norm

Trackers processing AGSI+ data showed EU storage at 74.47% and 843.65 TWh on the 17 October gas day, with the 19 October update reading 74.6%. Taking the seasonal norm as 92%, the gap is 17.4 points, or roughly 191,400 GWh. Germany sits well below the average at 60.62%. Daily injection runs between 0.10 and 0.18 points. Against an 80% target for 1 November, the level reachable at the current pace is nearer 77%.

The shortfall comes not from demand but from missing cargoes. Kpler data show Qatari LNG exports down to 1.6 million tonnes in September, less than a quarter of the pre-war average. October shipments are reported to be sliding towards 0.6 million tonnes. The Middle East conflict is squeezing output and loading alike. Qatar's direct share of EU LNG imports is limited, but the effect reaches Europe through competition with Asian buyers for Atlantic cargoes; maintenance at Atlantic LNG 2 in Trinidad and cooler weather forecasts are narrowing the same pool.

The second supply blow came from Norway. Gassco reported an unplanned outage at the Kårstø processing plant on 13 October, with losses put at roughly 13 million cubic metres a day and repairs expected by 15 October. TTF closed 3.40% higher at 87.223 euros a megawatt-hour that day, touched 87.43 euros intraday on 14 October for its highest level since December 2022, and settled at 88.090 euros on 19 October. The rise since the end of September is roughly 20%. The threshold lies in the injection calendar: if the EU enters November below 80%, withdrawal through the winter has to run above the norm. Storage then finishes close to empty at the end of February, and refilling sets the price not for summer but for the following winter.