IR · Government · Revolutionary Guards · Middle East and North Africa
Iran
Narrow room for manoeuvre · updated 22 September 2026
What they did
It kept up the pressure in the Strait of Hormuz: on 21 September the 72,825 dwt crude tanker LR Stephanie was struck as it entered the Gulf and two crew members were lightly injured; the same day a liquefied petroleum gas tanker was hit by munition fragments. The Joint Maritime Information Centre counts at least five incidents since 16 September. In parallel the president travelled to New York for the UN General Assembly and the American side signalled that it was open to talks.
Why
The strait is the only scalable card it holds, and it wants to sit down at the negotiating table without spending it in full. Applying pressure at sea and signalling diplomacy in the same week is no coincidence: the pressure sets the price at the table. Expectations of diplomacy duly brought Brent down from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September, so the effect of tension in the strait on the price is measurable.
What they must do
It has to open a revenue channel without spending its card. Opening the strait fully costs it bargaining power; keeping it closed costs it its own export income. According to Kpler data only 17 commodity vessels passed through the strait at the weekend, against 37 the weekend before, while the pre-war baseline ranges, depending on the source, between 85 and 125 vessels a day. This contraction hits not only its rivals but its regional partners as well.
What comes next
Contacts on the margins of the UN General Assembly and whether direct talks with the United States take place. The frequency of tanker incidents and the volume of ship-to-ship transfers off Oman (around 2.5 million barrels a day in September) are the two concrete indicators to watch.
Preference
A limited and supervised transit regime in return for lifting the blockade; retaining the capacity to close the strait even after a negotiated settlement.
Observed behaviour
Movement through two channels in the same week: pressure at sea through tanker attacks, and an opening signalled through diplomacy at the General Assembly.
Sources
Related events
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