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IR · Government · Revolutionary Guards · Middle East and North Africa

Iran

Narrow room for manoeuvre · updated 6 November 2026

What they did

On 5 November the Revolutionary Guards said 2 tankers and 1 tug using unauthorised routes had caught fire in separate incidents; the navy said 1 tanker had struck a mine east of the Strait of Hormuz. According to CNBC, 35 ships were hit in October, the highest monthly count of the war. Foreign Minister Araghchi spoke by phone with his Saudi and Qatari counterparts on 5 November.

Why

Democrats won both chambers in the US midterms on 3 November, and the new Congress takes office in January; Tehran reads time as working in its favour as it seeks to have the blockade and sanctions lifted before the nuclear file. According to CNBC, Eurasia Group cut the probability of a deal from 20% to 10%.

What they must do

It has to keep passage through Hormuz subject to its own approval by punishing unauthorised routes, while keeping the Qatari and Saudi channels open without provoking a possible post-election US strike.

What comes next

The reply to Qatar's mediation comes first. Second is the risk of a new US strike, which Eurasia Group puts at 60%. Third is UKMTO's incident count for November.

Preference

Keep Hormuz on the table as leverage that can be released within two days; secure the lifting of the blockade and sanctions ahead of any nuclear sequencing.

Observed behaviour

It claims shipping incidents on 'unauthorised route' grounds while keeping up diplomatic contact with Riyadh and Doha the same day; it uses pressure and the negotiating table together.

Sources

  1. CNBC — U.S. crude oil rises back above $90 as investors weigh uncertainties around Iran war
  2. The National — Oil rebounds from two-month low as uncertainty lingers over Iran war

Related events

05/11HighI Geo-EconomicsMiddle East and North AfricaOctober was the war's worst month for ship strikes, and fires continue05/11MediumVI Energy & SupplyMiddle East and North AfricaSaudi Arabia issues a danger warning for Yanbu, its Hormuz bypass outlet04/11MediumVI Energy & SupplyMiddle East and North AfricaKuwait moves its crude through Hormuz with tracking signals off04/11MediumIII Conflict & DefenceAmericasPentagon sends more than 25,000 unmanned systems to Middle East command03/11HighI Geo-EconomicsMiddle East and North AfricaOnly three ships transit Hormuz as Iran doubles its blacklist03/11HighIII Conflict & DefenceMiddle East and North AfricaQatari mediators give Washington and Tehran 36 hours to answer02/11HighIII Conflict & DefenceMiddle East and North AfricaUS hits launcher on Qeshm Island but says major campaign not resumed02/11MediumI Geo-EconomicsMiddle East and North AfricaIndian-flagged vessel hit off Oman as October sets an attack record02/11HighI Geo-EconomicsMiddle East and North AfricaIran's Hormuz plan knocks 7.6% off January Brent in a day30/10MediumI Geo-EconomicsEurasiaArmenia ratifies the Trump Route as Iran rejects foreign forces on its border

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