MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints2 October 2026, Friday

UAE withdraws Dubai landing permits for Israeli airlines

On 2 October the UAE withdrew landing permits granted to Israeli airlines for evacuation flights from Dubai, and El Al cancelled 2 flights. The decision followed flydubai's suspension of the route after an attack in the cockpit of its Tel Aviv flight on 30 September.

Location: DUBAI

According to AA, a scuffle broke out in the cockpit of flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv on 30 September, carrying 172 passengers and crew. The Times of Israel reported that the Omani first officer stabbed the Indian captain. The captain and Israeli passengers subdued the attacker, and the aircraft made an emergency landing in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. flydubai CEO Ghaith Al Ghaith said Tel Aviv flights had been suspended indefinitely at the authorities' request. UAE authorities are investigating whether the incident was an act of terrorism.

According to the Times of Israel, 3 Israeli carriers had planned evacuation flights on 2 October. El Al cancelled its two Friday flights. Arkia kept its evening flights, saying it had obtained the necessary approvals from the UAE, while Israir made ticket sales conditional on approval from all parties. AA reported that El Al's Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Thursday flights remain on the schedule and are fully booked. The UAE has not explained why it withdrew the permits.

The number of affected passengers is unclear. A travel executive quoted by the Times of Israel said at least 1,700 Israelis are left stranded in the UAE every day. A figure of more than 10,000 stranded passengers cited in some outlets could not be independently verified. According to AA, Israeli operations against Iran had already disrupted air links between the two countries despite the 2020 normalisation. Al Jazeera notes that, as of 2 October, the war is in its 8th month.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The trigger was a security incident, yet the UAE's unexplained withdrawal of landing permits shows that Abu Dhabi finds a visible tie with Israel costlier in the war's 8th month. The approval granted to Arkia points to controlled distance rather than a full rupture. The most likely path is a route restricted for weeks while the diplomatic relationship continues.

Likely effects

Gulf–Israel transportNegativeWeeks
A suspended Dubai–Tel Aviv route directly affects at least 1,700 passengers a day and business travel between the two countries.
Normalisation processNegative1–6 months
Disruption to aviation, the most visible strand of the normalisation begun in 2020, reinforces the tendency of Gulf capitals to limit public contact with Israel.
Regional aviationNegativeWeeks
Until the cockpit attack investigation concludes, Gulf airlines face extra security and insurance costs on their Israel flights.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Restricted, selective reopening55%
The UAE approves evacuation flights case by case, and flydubai services stay suspended until the investigation ends.
Watch: Whether Israel's national carrier operates its Sunday and Monday flights, and any new flydubai announcement
2
Air link severed for an extended period30%
The investigation finds a terrorist link or the war escalates, and the Dubai–Tel Aviv route stays closed for weeks.
Watch: The official outcome of the UAE investigation and cancellation of permits for Israeli carriers
3
Swift normalisation15%
The incident is closed as an isolated case, and all carriers' flights return to normal within 1 week.
Watch: flydubai reopening sales on its Tel Aviv flights

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

flydubai FZ1073 passengers and crew▼ 172
Israelis stranded daily (estimate)▼ 1,700
El Al flights cancelled▼ 2

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources